Solid US employment report a green light for rate hike

Updated 04 December 2015
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Solid US employment report a green light for rate hike

WASHINGTON: US job growth increased solidly in November in a show of the economy’s resilience, which most likely paves the way for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month for the first time in nearly a decade.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 211,000 last month, the Labor Department said.
September and October data was revised to show 35,000 more jobs than previously reported.
The unemployment rate held at a 7-1/2-year low of 5 percent, even as people returned to the labor force in a sign of confidence in the jobs market. The jobless rate is in a range many Fed officials see as consistent with full employment and has dropped seven-tenths of a percentage point this year.
The closely watched employment report came a day after Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck an upbeat note on the economy when she testified before lawmakers, describing how it had largely met the criteria the US central bank has set for the Fed’s first rate hike since June 2006.
Yellen said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with growth in the working age population. The Fed’s policy-setting committee will meet on Dec. 15-16.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast nonfarm payrolls rising 200,000 last month and the unemployment rate steady at 5.0 percent.
The second month of strong job gains should allay fears the economy has hit a soft patch, after reports showing tepid consumer spending in October and a slowdown in services industry growth in November. Manufacturing contracted in November for the first time in three years.
Though wage growth slowed last month, economists say that was mostly payback for October’s outsized gains, which were driven by a calendar quirk. Anecdotal evidence, as well as data on labor-related costs, suggest that tightening job market conditions are starting to put upward pressure on wages.
Average hourly earnings increased four cents or 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent in October. That lowered the year-on-year reading to 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent in October. The average workweek, however, dipped to 34.5 hours from 34.6.
Other labor market measures that Fed officials are eyeing as they consider lifting the benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero were mixed.
The labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, rose to 62.5 percent from a near 38-year low of 62.4 percent.
A broad measure of joblessness that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 9.9 percent.
Employment gains in November were broad-based, though manufacturing shed 1,000 positions and mining lost 11,000 jobs.
Manufacturing has been crippled by a strong dollar, efforts by businesses to reduce bloated inventory and spending cuts by energy companies scaling back well drilling and exploration in response to sharply lower oil prices.
Mining employment has declined by 123,000 since reaching a peak in December 2014. Three quarters of the job losses over this period have been in support activities for mining.
Oilfield services provider Schlumberger this week announced another round of job cuts in addition to 20,000 layoffs already reported this year.
The company said it expected the slowdown in drilling activity to continue in 2016.
Construction payrolls increased 46,000 last month.
With 163,000 jobs added last month, the services sector accounted for the bulk of the increase in employment. Retail jobs rose 30,700 and transportation and warehousing employment rebounded after two straight months of declines.


Oil prices rise sharply after attacks in Middle East disrupt global energy supply

Updated 2 sec ago
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Oil prices rise sharply after attacks in Middle East disrupt global energy supply

NEW YORK: Oil prices rose sharply Monday as US and Israeli attacks on Iran and retaliatory strikes against Israel and US military installations around the Gulf sent disruptions through the global energy supply chain.
Traders were betting the supply of oil from Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East would slow or grind to a halt. Attacks throughout the region, including on two vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Arabian Gulf, have restricted countries’ ability to export oil to the rest of the world. Prolonged attacks would likely result in higher prices for crude oil and gasoline, according to energy experts.
West Texas Intermediate, the light, sweet crude oil produced in the United States, was selling for about $72 a barrel early Monday, up around 7.3 percent from its trading price of about $67 on Friday, according to data from CME group.
A barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, was trading at $78.55 per barrel early Monday, according to FactSet, up 7.8 percent from its trading price of $72.87 on Friday, which had been a seven-month high at the time.
Higher global energy prices could lead to consumers paying more for gasoline at the pump and shelling out more for groceries and other goods, at a time when many are already feeling the impacts of elevated inflation.
Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil per day — about 20 percent of the world’s oil — are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, according to Rystad Energy. Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran.
Iran had temporarily shut down parts of the strait in mid-February for what it said was a military drill, which led oil prices to jump about 6 percent higher in the days that followed.
Against that backdrop, eight countries that are part of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced they would boost production of crude Sunday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a meeting planned before the war began, said it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, which was more than analysts had been expecting. The countries boosting output include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
“Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for world trade, meaning markets are more concerned with whether barrels can move than with spare capacity on paper,” said Jorge León, Rystad’s senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis, in an email. “If flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets.”
Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China, which may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran’s exports are disrupted, another factor that could increase energy prices.