NEW DELHI: India posted faster-than-expected quarterly economic growth of 4.8 percent, boosted by robust farm output, spurring hopes that an end to the country’s prolonged downturn may be in sight.
The official data for the second financial quarter to September beat market forecasts of 4.6 percent growth and topped the 4.4 percent expansion India logged in the previous three months.
“Indian GDP growth appears to be bottoming out,” said Miguel Chanco, Asia economist for research house Capital Economics.
But “India’s road to recovery will be slow and bumpy,” he said.
The figure marked the fourth quarter in a row that India’s growth has been below five percent.
Expansion has fallen sharply from the heady nearly double-digit growth that the country enjoyed just two years ago.
Still, the figures were a welcome respite for the scandal-tarred Congress party-led government, which is desperate to nurse the economy back to health before general elections due by May.
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said India’s economy is going through a “period of stress” but “we are confident of coming out of it and returning to the high growth path.”
He forecast India’s economic growth would rebound to six percent next year and seven percent the following year.
Economists credited the improved July-to-September quarterly performance to higher farm output from the best monsoon in half a dozen years.
Agriculture output climbed in the quarter by a robust 4.6 percent from a year earlier.
But India’s rural hinterland accounts for just one-third of gross domestic product and is insufficient to pull the nation’s economy out of its rut on its own, economists said.
Manufacturing output expanded by a tepid one percent, but better than the April-June quarter when it shrank by 1.2 percent.
Hopes of a big increase in production for India’s religious festival season in October, when it is considered auspicious to buy everything from cars to gold to appliances, failed to materialize this year.
Growth fell to a decade-low of five percent in the fiscal year to March 2013.
The government has forecast around 5.0-5.5 percent expansion this financial year.
But most private economists believe India’s growth may be below five percent for the first time since 2003.
Tight fiscal policy and two recent interest rate hikes to curb stubbornly high inflation “will impact recovery in coming quarters,” Barclays economist Siddhartha Sanyal said ahead of the data.
With inflation still stubbornly high at seven percent, Goldman Sachs has forecast more interest rate hikes, which would keep growth subdued.
The investment house predicts the central bank’s new governor, Raghuram Rajan, will hike India’s benchmark lending rate to 8.5 percent next year from its current 7.75 percent.
Rajan has made a top priority of tackling inflation that has been fueled by a host of factors from costlier imports to supply bottlenecks in India’s antiquated industrial and distribution sectors.
Chidambaram, meanwhile, has said he is intent on cutting the fiscal deficit to a six-year low of 4.8 percent of gross domestic product this financial year, implying a row back in public spending that would dampen growth.
India economy posts surprise 4.8 percent growth
India economy posts surprise 4.8 percent growth
Saudi Arabia’s industrial output rises 10.4% in November: GASTAT
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s industrial output rose at its fastest rate in months, climbing 10.4 percent year on year in November, supported by stronger manufacturing activity and higher oil production, official data showed.
The Industrial Production Index increased to 114.4, up from 103.6 a year earlier, according to the General Authority for Statistics, though the index slipped 0.7 percent from October.
The latest figures highlight continued momentum in the Kingdom’s industrial sector as Saudi Arabia pursues economic diversification under its Vision 2030 agenda.
In its latest report, GASTAT stated: “Preliminary results indicate an increase of 10.4 percent in the IPI in November 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year, supported by the rise in mining and quarrying activity, manufacturing activity and water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities.”
The sub-index of mining and quarrying activity increased by 12.6 percent year on year in November, supported by Saudi Arabia’s decision to raise oil production to 10.1 million barrels per day, compared to 8.9 million bpd a year earlier.
Manufacturing activity rose by 8.1 percent compared to November 2024, driven by a 14.5 percent increase in the production of coke and refined petroleum products. The manufacture of chemical products also recorded a 10.9 percent annual rise.
In contrast, the sub-index of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply declined by 4.3 percent year on year, while water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities rose by 10.2 percent.
On a month-on-month basis, the overall IPI fell by 0.7 percent in November.
Mining and quarrying activity rose by 0.5 percent from October, while manufacturing activity edged up by 0.3 percent.
However, electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply recorded a sharp monthly decline of 28.6 percent. Water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities fell by 3.1 percent over the same period.
Overall, the index of oil activities advanced by 12.9 percent year on year in November, while non-oil activities increased by 4.4 percent.
Compared to October, oil activities rose by 0.4 percent, while non-oil activities declined by 3.4 percent.
The IPI measures changes in industrial output based on the International Standard Industrial Classification framework and covers mining, manufacturing, utilities, and waste management sectors.
