Since the nations of Western Europe started to come together after World War II, with the powerful support of Conservative statesmen such as Winston Churchill and Antony Eden, British politicians have, at best, been baffled as to how to respond. Under the leadership of Michael Foot in the early 1980s, Labour turned itself into an anti-European party; under Tony Blair it claims to be a pro-European party. It was under a Conservative prime minister, that Britain joined the European Economic Community, as it then was; under another Margaret Thatcher, it began to turn against Europe — one reason why it has been kept out of government since 1997.

Opinion polls suggest that the Conservatives could win the next general election outright, though a ‘hung’ Parliament still looks most likely. The Labour government has been coming apart at the seams. David Cameron, the 39-year-old leader of the Conservatives, is credited with changing the image of the party.

Unwisely, in the heat of the Conservative leadership election, when he faced real opposition from David Davis, Cameron made one highly damaging pledge, which is going to haunt both him and the Conservatives for years.

He promised that if he were successful he would pull the Conservative MEPs out of the European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament. My suspicion is that, like many Conservative MPs of his vintage — he only got into the House of Commons in 2001 — he shares many of Margaret Thatcher’s prejudices against Europe. He seems uneasy over European issues and is a staunch Atlanticist.

The argument put forward today by Conservatives for leaving the EPP is that it is committed to work for a United States of Europe. Conservatives are much opposed to such a concept, but have been allowed to work within the EPP on the grounds that they broadly support its other center-right policies. It was on this basis that David Cameron’s three immediate predecessors decided to remain in the EPP. Cameron and his close supporters suggest it is dishonest to oppose a United States of Europe at home while working with a party that supports it abroad.

William Hague, one of David Cameron’s predecessors and now shadow foreign secretary, was asked to travel around Europe seeking suitable alternative parties with which to form a new and more suitable grouping. Able man that he is, he will almost certainly fail in this opening task. Such parties are not to be found within the European Parliament. There are some weird and extreme fringe groups. But I cannot believe the Conservatives would be happy to sit as independents alongside France’s Le Pen or Mussolini’s daughter from Italy. They would be savagely attacked by the other political parties at home if they did. To add to Cameron’s troubles, about half of the 27 Conservative MEPs have suggested they would refuse to leave the EPP. As members of the EPP, Conservative MEPs gain both some posts within the European Parliament and political influence, which they are loath to give up.

William Hague has promised a statement to his Conservative colleagues by the end of July. The former Conservative Cabinet Minister Michael Portillo, once on the right of the party, has urged the new leader to abandon his pledge as “the most dramatic demonstration yet that the Tories have broken with their recent history.”

I would agree with that advice, but it would cause a massive row within the Conservative ranks, and open up a dangerous internal conflict with the die-hard Euroskeptics who, at heart, want to leave the European Union.

Cameron has been rebuked by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, ten prime ministers and fourteen other party leaders for refusing to attend important discussions with right-of-center European Union party leaders. Arguably in 2006 good relations with Germany, the largest and most economically important European Union state, are as important as those with the United States for the United Kingdom. I regard Frau Merkel as the most powerful political leader in Europe, and she is horrified that the Conservative Party wants to leave the EPP.

Cameron, who is highly intelligent, would, in normal circumstances, like to be seen to have excellent relations with the president of the United States. But there are political dangers for him. President George Bush and his Republican Party are daily losing political support in the United States over Iraq. The neoconservatives are highly unpopular in Britain.

There is a real possibility that when Tony Blair finally goes, his successor might decide to distance the Labour government from a lame-duck administration in Washington, which would be very well received in Britain.

Cameron’s foreign policy is in a mess.