Ranking the chances of Arab nations to progress from World Cup group stages

Egypt's players celebrate after the FIFA World Cup 2026 Africa qualifier football match between Djibouti and Egypt at the Larbi Zaouli Stadium in Casablanca on October 8, 2025. (File/AFP)
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Updated 04 June 2026
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Ranking the chances of Arab nations to progress from World Cup group stages

  • While Morocco and Egypt look to have what it takes to progress, others must hope that the 48-team tournament format will help them

LONDON: An unprecedented eight teams from the Arab region will participate at the 2026 World Cup.

The expanded 48-nation tournament means that there are 32 places available in the knockout stages. Arab News tries to predict the unpredictable and rank their chances to get out of their groups.

Morocco

Group C opponents: Brazil, Scotland, Haiti

An opening game with Brazil looks daunting but better to face the South Americans early for a team that now expects to go deep.

Semifinalists in 2022, and controversial champions of Africa earlier this year, the Atlas Lions are full of stars including Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz.

This is a team that knows tournament play, can be hard to beat and grind out results if needed. And whatever happens against the five-time champions in the opener, will surely get enough points from Haiti and Scotland to extend their stay in North America.

Chances: 8 out 10

Egypt

Group G opponents: Belgium, New Zealand, Iran

The focus on Mohamed Salah and what is likely to be the soon-to-be-ex-Liverpool star’s last World Cup may actually take some pressure off the rest of the Pharaohs as they seek a first-ever knockout spot.

Salah will be desperate to end a difficult season on a high. Omar Marmoush also has a point to prove to Manchester City. Such attacking potency should make the difference in what looks to be an open group.

Belgium are not the force of a few years ago, Iran have other issues to deal with, and New Zealand will be organized but limited.

Chances: 6 out of 10

Algeria

Group J opponents: Argentina, Austria, Jordan

Recent form has been pretty good for the Fennecs and coach Vladimir Petkovic will be looking forward to the challenge.

The Bosnian boss took Switzerland to three consecutive knockout stages with the World Cup in 2018 sandwiched by two Euros. In 2020, the Swiss beat France to make the last eight.

Riyad Mahrez is 35 but can still produce a moment of magic to turn a game and Houssem Aouar has been a rare shining star for Jeddah giants Al-Ittihad.

And then there is the group. Argentina are strong favorites but Algeria should be more comfortable with the conditions than Austria in the final game. The middle clash with Jordan will be key.

Chances: 6 out of 10

Qatar

Opponents: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland

The 2022 hosts just want to improve on their three defeats on home soil. That tournament was as good as over after the first half-hour but then Qatar bounced back to win a successive Asian Cup soon after.

Performances in qualification were not great and 24 goals conceded in the 10 games in the main round show the issues. With a leaky defense and too much reliance on star attacker Akram Afif, Qatar were too easy to play against.

Bringing in Julen Lopetegui as coach should make a difference and the group is far from the hardest, so the Maroons have a chance.

Chances: 5 out of 10

Jordan

Group J opponents: Argentina, Austria, Algeria

There are some big absences. Talismanic striker Yazan Al-Naimat is out and the star of qualification Ali Olwan is still recovering. It puts a lot on the shoulders of Musa Al-Taamari because the winger is one of the few players with European experience.

Yet there are reasons to be cheerful. There is little pressure at a first World Cup and this is a team that sees itself as tournament experts, as reaching the final of the 2023 Asian Cup and 2025 Arab Cup showed.

Jordan are well-organized, hard to break down and effective on the counter. The opener against Austria is huge before the Arab derby with Algeria when anything could happen.

Chances: 5 out of 10

Tunisia 

Group F opponents: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden 

The Carthage Eagles are often dour and defensive but it is a style that has served them reasonably well in recent years as this is a third consecutive appearance.

They came close in 2022 with four points but it was not quite enough. Tunisia are a team without stars and have something of a journeyman coach with Sabri Lamouchi, who led Ivory Coast to a first-round exit at the 2014 World Cup.

The group is tricky with the Netherlands, Japan and opening game opponents Sweden. Tunisia will be looking to take all three points against the struggling Scandinavians to put the knockout stage within reach.

Chances: 4 out of 10

Saudi Arabia

Group H opponents: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde

Replacing Herve Renard as head coach with Georgios Donis in April was a gamble, and questions remain. The big one is: Can Saudi Arabia score enough goals to go through?

If Donis can squeeze out every last drop of creativity from star Salem Al-Dawsari and others while still maintaining a solid defense then there is a chance.

It is easier said than done in a tough group. The Green Falcons are going to have to get a result against either Uruguay or Spain, with the South Americans who have issues of their own, the likelier. And then go into the final game with Cape Verde with the knockout stage in sight.

They did it in the US in 1994 and it is time to go back.

Chances: 4 out of 10

Iraq

Group I opponents: France, Norway, Senegal

A first World Cup since 1986 brings perhaps the toughest of the 12 groups. It starts against Norway and megastar striker Erling Haaland. Then comes the mighty France, the favorite of many to lift the trophy for the second time in three tournaments. It ends with Senegal, defending African champions (of sorts).

Compared to 40 years ago, Iraq have the likes of Kevin Yakob, Ali Al-Hamadi and Zidane Iqbal with European experience. Also, coach Graham Arnold took Australia to the last 16 in 2022 and knows how to get the best out of any player.

There is no pressure at all but it still looks daunting.

Chances: 2 out of 10