KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank expects workers’ remittances to cross a record $41 billion in the current fiscal year despite weaker exports and global economic uncertainty, State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad said on Friday, projecting economic growth of up to 4.75% as the country stabilizes after a balance of payments crisis three years ago.
Speaking at an event hosted by the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Ahmad said Pakistan’s external account had strengthened significantly, supported by higher remittances, improved foreign exchange reserves and tighter controls against illegal currency markets.
Pakistan has been seeking to rebuild macroeconomic stability under an International Monetary Fund-supported reform program after a severe economic crisis in 2023 depleted reserves, disrupted imports and raised fears of sovereign default.
The country’s foreign exchange reserves have since risen to around $17 billion from nearly $3 billion three years ago, according to the central bank.
“Jameel Ahmad said the State Bank’s reforms, coupled with stringent action against hundi and hawala, had played a vital role in stabilizing the economy and strengthening foreign exchange reserves,” the KCCI said in a statement circulated after the event. “He revealed that remittances, which stood at $38 billion in the last fiscal year, were now expected to exceed an unprecedented $41 billion during the current fiscal year.”
At the same time, he warned that exports were under pressure from weaker global commodity prices and slowing international demand.
“Exports ... were estimated at around $30 billion this year compared to $32 billion last year, although the government was actively pursuing measures to reverse the trend and positive results were expected within the next two months,” the statement continued, citing Ahmad's speech.
Despite the reduction in exports, he noted that Pakistan’s external account was “in a much stronger and healthier position.”
The SBP governor projected Pakistan’s economy to grow between 3.75% and 4.75% in the current fiscal year ending June 2026, though he warned global uncertainty and oil price volatility linked to the war in Iran could weigh on growth in the final quarter.
Last week, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the government expected the economy to grow close to 4% in this fiscal year, compared with 3.1% growth last year.
Ahmad also said inflation could temporarily rise above 7% in the final quarter of FY26, though the central bank remained committed to keeping it within its medium-term target range of 5% to 7%.
He also mentioned that the designs for the country’s new currency notes had been finalized and sent to the federal cabinet for approval.
Ahmad said progress was underway on a regulatory and licensing framework for virtual assets in Pakistan.
