RIYADH: The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime routes for the energy sector, with roughly 20 million barrels of oil passing through it daily, or about 20 percent of global consumption. Large volumes of liquefied natural gas also transit the strait, particularly from Qatar to Asian markets.
Any disruption in this passage directly affects oil prices and the stability of global supplies.
How did the crisis begin?
Concerns over navigation security in the strait rose with escalating military tensions between Iran and Israel during 2025, followed by reciprocal attacks and threats targeting energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
As tensions spread across the Gulf, risks to commercial vessels and oil tankers increased, prompting shipping and insurance companies to exercise greater caution or reroute some ships.
These developments alarmed global markets because the strait is not just an ordinary shipping lane, but a global energy bottleneck relied upon by oil exports from Gulf countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, as well as Saudi Arabia.
How much oil can the world replace if the strait is blocked?
If oil flow through the strait were to stop completely, global energy consumption would not halt immediately, because major countries maintain commercial and strategic oil reserves for emergencies, according to the Financial Analysis Unit at Al-Eqtisadiah.
According to the International Energy Agency, reserves held by the 38 countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, totaled around 2.83 billion barrels by the end of October. Based on the consumption of these countries, these stocks could cover roughly 61.8 days, according to an OPEC report.
These reserves are concentrated in a limited number of nations, with the US holding one of the largest commercial and strategic oil stockpiles in the world, estimated at about 1.68 billion barrels of strategic and commercial oil. Its crude oil reserves alone could last approximately 50 to 53 days if fully relied upon; however, actual supply depends on the maximum withdrawal capacity.
China maintains reserves exceeding 1.2 billion barrels, enough for roughly three months, while Japan keeps a stockpile covering more than 200 days of its oil imports.
Despite these large reserves, they are insufficient to fully replace the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz over an extended period, as the strait handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily.
A complete stoppage could initially be mitigated by drawing on global reserves, offsetting a significant portion of the shortfall. However, this measure would likely only provide relief for a few months before markets face increasing supply pressures and sharp price spikes.
Factors that could ease the crisis
Several factors may help reduce the impact of any disruption in the strait. First is the presence of alternative pipelines bypassing the strait, such as the Saudi pipeline that transports oil from the eastern region to the Red Sea. Some countries also have spare production capacity that can partially offset shortages.
Industrialized countries can further coordinate withdrawals from strategic reserves through the IAE, a measure used previously during oil market crises.
