Geoeconomic confrontation tops global risks in 2026: WEF report

The Global Risk Report was released ahead of World Economic Forum’s annual meeting, which will be held in Davos from Jan. 19 to 23. (File/AFP)
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Updated 15 January 2026
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Geoeconomic confrontation tops global risks in 2026: WEF report

  • Also armed conflict, extreme climate, public polarization, AI
  • None ‘a foregone conclusion,’ says WEF’s MD Saadia Zahidi

DUBAI: Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk this year, followed by state-based armed conflict, according to a new World Economic Forum report.

The Global Risks Report 2026, released on Wednesday, found that both risks climbed eight places year-on-year, underscoring a sharp deterioration in the global outlook amid increased international competition.

The top five risks are geoeconomic confrontation (18 percent of respondents), state-based armed conflict (14 percent), extreme weather events (8 percent), societal polarization (7 percent) and misinformation and disinformation (7 percent).

The WEF’s Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said the report “offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks — from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt — and changes our collective capacity to address them.

“But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”

The report assesses risks across three timeframes: immediate (2026); short-to-medium term (next two years); and long term (next 10 years).

Economic risks show the largest overall increase in the two-year outlook, with both economic downturn and inflation jumping eight positions.

Misinformation and disinformation rank fifth this year but rise to second place in the two-year outlook and fourth over the 10-year horizon.

The report suggests this reflects growing anxiety around the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence, with adverse outcomes linked to AI surging from 30th place in the two-year timeframe to fifth in the 10-year outlook.

Uncertainty dominates the global risk outlook, according to the report.

Surveyed leaders and experts view both the short- and long-term outlook negatively, with 50 percent expecting a turbulent or stormy global environment over the next two years, rising to 57 percent over the next decade.

A further 40 percent and 32 percent, respectively, describe the outlook as unsettled across the two- and 10-year timeframes, while just 1 percent anticipate a calm global outlook in either period.

Environmental risks ease slightly in the short-term rankings. Extreme weather fell from second to fourth place and pollution from sixth to ninth. Meanwhile, critical changes to Earth systems and biodiversity loss dropped seven and five positions, respectively.

However, over the next decade, environmental threats re-emerge as the most severe, with extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems topping the global risk rankings.

Looking ahead over the next decade, around 75 percent of respondents anticipate a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, making it the most pessimistic assessment across all risk categories.

Zahidi said that “the challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”

Despite the gloomy outlook, Zahidi signaled a positive shift in global cooperation.

 “It is also clear that new forms of global cooperation are already unfolding even amid competition, and the global economy is demonstrating resilience in the face of uncertainty.”

Now in its 21st year, the Global Risks Report highlights a core message: global risks cannot be managed without cooperation.

As competition intensifies, rebuilding trust and new forms of collaboration will be critical, with the report stressing that today’s decisions will shape future outcomes.

The report was released ahead of WEF’s annual meeting, which will be held in Davos from Jan. 19 to 23.


Bangladesh’s Hindu minority in fear as attacks rise and a national election nears

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Bangladesh’s Hindu minority in fear as attacks rise and a national election nears

  • Among Hindus, fear has grown more pervasive as the Muslim-majority nation moves toward a national election
  • Attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh have also inflamed tensions with neighboring India
DHAKA: Dipu Chandra Das, a 27-year-old Hindu garment worker, was accused in December by several Muslim colleagues of making derogatory remarks about the Prophet Muhammad. The accusations drew a violent mob to his workplace. He was beaten to death, his body hung from a tree and set on fire.
Across Bangladesh, Hindus watched the recorded images on their phones with dread. Protests erupted in Dhaka and other cities, with demonstrators demanding justice and greater protections. The interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, ordered an investigation, and police said that about a dozen people were arrested.
But human rights groups and Hindu leaders say the killing wasn’t an isolated act, but part of a wider surge in attacks on the minority community, fueled by rising polarization, the reemergence of Islamists and what they describe as a growing culture of impunity. Among Hindus, fear has grown more pervasive as the Muslim-majority nation moves toward a national election on Feb. 12.
“No one feels safe anymore,” said Ranjan Karmaker, a Dhaka-based Hindu human rights activist. “Everyone is terrified.”
Surge in attacks
Hindus make up a small minority in Bangladesh, about 13.1 million people, or roughly 8 percent of the country’s population of 170 million, while Muslims make up 91 percent.
The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council, an umbrella group representing minority communities, says it documented more than 2,000 incidents of communal violence since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a mass uprising in August 2024.
The group recorded at least 61 killings, 28 instances of violence against women — among them rape and gang rape — and 95 attacks on places of worship involving vandalism, looting and arson. It has also accused the Yunus-led administration of routinely dismissing or downplaying reports of such violence.
When contacted by The Associated Press for a response, an official from Yunus’ press team declined to comment. The administration headed by Yunus has consistently denied claims that it has failed to ensure adequate protection for minority communities and insisted that most incidents aren’t driven by religious hostility.
Previous elections in Bangladesh have also seen increases in violence, with religious minorities often bearing the brunt. But with Hasina’s Awami League party barred from contesting elections and with her living in exile in India, many Hindus fear the worst as they have long been viewed as aligned with Hasina.
Karmaker, the rights activist, said that Hindus are often perceived as voting en masse for one side, a perception that heightens their vulnerability. He said that the community was also gripped by fear because of a culture of impunity, and near-weekly incidents, warning that in some parts of the country the Hindu community was facing “an existential crisis.”
“The individuals involved in this violence are not being brought under the law, nor are they being held accountable through the justice system. It creates the impression that the violence will continue,” Karmaker said.
Islamists reclaim influence
The surge in attacks against Hindus has unfolded alongside the reemergence of Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, and its student wing. After years on the political sidelines because of bans, arrests and sustained crackdowns under Hasina’s government, the party sees the election as an opportunity to reclaim influence.
Jamaat-e-Islami anchors a broader Islamist alliance of 11 parties, among them the student-led National Citizen Party, or NCP, whose leaders played a central role in the 2024 uprising.
As concerns grow over what its return could mean for religious minorities, Jamaat-e-Islami has moved to recast its public image, even though it advocates Shariah, or Islamic law. It has organized public rallies featuring Hindu participants and nominated a Hindu community leader as one of its candidates.
Meanwhile, NCP has pledged to support citizens facing religious discrimination and said that if elected, it would establish a dedicated unit within the Human Rights Commission to protect minority rights.
Political analyst Altaf Parvez said that such decisions were largely symbolic. He said that other political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, had also failed minorities by nominating only a handful of candidates — a move, he said, that didn’t reflect a genuine political commitment to inclusive politics.
Parvez said a systematic pattern of attacks was taking place in rural areas to inject more fear among the minorities before the vote.
“It will impact the participation of the voters from the minority communities in the next elections too,” he said.
Tensions rise with India
Attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh have also inflamed tensions with neighboring India, prompting protests by Hindu nationalist groups and criticism from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
India’s Foreign Ministry recently accused Bangladesh of downplaying a “disturbing pattern of recurring attacks” on Hindus, saying such violence was wrongly blamed on personal or political disputes. Bangladesh, in turn, described India’s criticism as “systematic attempts” to stoke anti-Bangladesh sentiments.
The dispute has spilled into diplomacy and sporting events. Both sides have suspended some visa services and accused each other of failing to protect diplomatic missions. Protests in India led cricket officials to bar a Bangladeshi player from the Indian Premier League tournament, followed by Bangladesh’s boycott of this month’s World Cup in India.
Sreeradha Datta, a Bangladesh expert at India’s Jindal School of International Affairs, said that India’s concerns were “legitimate.”
“Hindus in Bangladesh are a very vulnerable group that can’t defend themselves, and Yunus’ administration is in exit mode and deliberately looking the other way,” she said.
Families demand justice
For those caught in the violence, the losses have been deeply personal.
When word of Das’ killing reached his home village in Bangladesh’s Mymensingh district, disbelief settled in among relatives and neighbors. Many said they watched images of his killing on their phones.
“When people say they saw it on their phones, my chest feels like it is going to burst,” his father said.
Das was known as a quiet, well-behaved man. He was also the sole breadwinner for his family, relatives said, and his death has left his wife and mother facing an uncertain future.
His mother, Shefali Rani Das, said the family is seeking justice for the killing.
“They beat him, hung him from a tree, and burned him. I demand justice,” she said.