Pakistan forecasts inflation to remain in moderate 5.5-6.5 percent range

A shopkeeper waits for customers at a cloth market in Karachi, Pakistan, on November 24, 2025. (AFP/File)
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Updated 31 December 2025
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Pakistan forecasts inflation to remain in moderate 5.5-6.5 percent range

  • Finance Division report says robust remittance inflows, steady performance of IT, service sectors to cushion external pressures
  • Consumer inflation in Pakistan has significantly reduced over the years when it surged to a record high of 38 percent in May 2023

ISLAMABAD: Inflation is expected to remain in the moderate range of 5.5 to 6.5 percent for December, the Finance Division said in its Monthly Economic Outlook report on Wednesday. 

Pakistan reported inflation at 6.1 percent on a year-on-year basis in November as compared to 6.2 percent in October. Pakistan’s inflation rate rose to a record high of 38 percent in May 2023 on account of surging food and fuel costs as Islamabad scrapped subsidies as part of a financial deal agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

“Inflation is projected to remain moderate, in the range of 5.5-6.5 percent in December, primarily reflecting base effect,” the report said. 

The Finance Division’s report said Pakistan’s economic outlook remains “positive,” driven by sustained growth in industrial activity due to continued momentum in textiles, automobiles, cement and food processing sectors. 

“Robust remittance inflows and steady performance in IT and services exports are likely to cushion external pressures,” the report said. 

The report said Pakistan’s current account recorded a surplus of $100 million while it posted a deficit of $812 million during the July-November period.

It said remittances increased by 9.3 percent to $16.1 billion in November, led by inflows from Saudi Arabia (24.2 percent) and the UAE (20.8 percent), while the net foreign direct investment inflows were recorded at $927.4 million during the same July to November period. 

It said Pakistan’s fiscal consolidation is expected to continue supporting macroeconomic stability, with government efforts in expenditure management, enhanced tax collection and structural reforms contributing to sustainable growth. 

“Overall, Pakistan’s economy is projected to maintain its positive momentum in the coming months, driven by industrial growth, improved governance, digitalization, and prudent macroeconomic management,” the report said.


Pakistan Army’s logistics firm to run national shipping corporation, confirm officials

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Pakistan Army’s logistics firm to run national shipping corporation, confirm officials

  • Government to transfer 30 percent shares in Pakistan National Shipping Corporation, management control to NLC firm, say officials
  • Officials say the move will increase PNSC’s shipping fleet from 10 to 54, save $6 billion Islamabad pays in foreign freight annually

KARACHI: The government has decided to transfer the state-run Pakistan National Shipping Corporation’s (PNSC) management to the military-run National Logistics Corporation (NLC), officials confirmed on Thursday, saying the move is expected to save $6 billion that Islamabad currently pays in foreign freight annually. 

A week earlier, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government sold 75 percent of its shareholding in the national flag carrier Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to a business consortium led by Arif Habib Group for Rs135 billion ($482 million).

The government’s current drive to privatize state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is a key requirement of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) $7 billion loan program. The global lender wants Islamabad to privatize its loss-making state assets to save valuable revenue. 

PNSC reported a 34 percent decline in its profit, which reduced to Rs3.71 billion ($13.2 million) in the July-September quarter this year. Its revenues from shipping business fell by 2 percent to Rs9.32 billion ($33 million) in the same period, according to the company’s filing to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) seen by Arab News. The PNSC’s profits remained almost stagnant at Rs20 billion ($73 million) in FY25 while its shipping income shrank 18 percent to Rs33.7 billion ($120.3 million).

“We received a letter about one month ago in which the government asked us to sort out things before Dec. 30,” a PNSC official told Arab News on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to media. “The management control will go to the NLC.”

An NLC official confirmed the same. 

“Yes, this is happening,” an NLC official told Arab News on condition of anonymity. He said details will be shared in due course.

Muhammad Arshad, a spokesman at Pakistan’s Maritime Affairs Ministry, and PNSC Spokesperson Muhammad Farooq Nizami both declined to comment on the matter.

“We can’t say anything about this development until we get an official notification,” Nizami told Arab News. 

Officials said that as per the PNSC Revitalization and Improvement Plan, the government would sell about 30 percent of its PNSC shareholding to NLC, which would then have a controlling share in the corporation’s management.

As of Jun. 30, the government holds 87.56 percent shares in PNSC, whose 198.1 million shares are listed on the PSX with a market capital of Rs109 billion ($389 million). 

The NLC will be required to increase the PNSC’s shipping fleet, which currently comprises only 10 ships, to 54 over the next five years, the shipping company’s official said.

This would help Pakistan’s government save about $6 billion in freight costs as the PNSC’s current 10 ships are only able to handle 11 percent of the country’s commercial cargo, he added.

“As a result, Pakistan has to pay approximately $6 billion annually in foreign exchange to foreign shipping companies as freight charges,” he said. 

Among other objectives, the military-led company is also expected to rid PNSC of its aging fleet, as many vessels are nearing the end of their operational life and won’t be able to sail profitably beyond 2030.

“This initiative will ensure 100 percent replacement of all old PNSC vessels along with the induction of new ships,” the PNSC official said. 

News reports of the transfer of management have led to a rise in the PNSC’s shares at the PSX, which gained by around 21 percent in the last two trading sessions. The stocks traded at Rs548.89 ($1.9) per share on Thursday morning, taking its year-to-date gains to 17 percent.

Pakistan’s government has been cautious in spending its $16 billion foreign exchange reserves as it aims to keep its current account balance in check. 

Pakistan’s current account reported a $812 million deficit in the July-November period from a $503 million surplus last year, according to data shared by the central bank. 

The PNSC official said the increase in the company’s shipping fleet will enhance its share in global maritime freight from $162 million to $1.79 billion. 

“Despite significant growth potential in the shipping industry, the absence of private operators is hindering market dynamism and efficiency,” he said. 

“World-class financial and legal advisers will be appointed for institutional restructuring, transforming PNSC into a modern, agile, and professionally managed organization.”