What’s next for the Gaza ceasefire and will the truce last?

Palestinians walk along a street surrounded by buildings destroyed during Israeli air and ground operations in Gaza City, on Wednesday. (AP)
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Updated 17 December 2025
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What’s next for the Gaza ceasefire and will the truce last?

  • Many Israelis and Palestinians suspect the Trump plan will never be fully realized and that the current frozen conflict will continue indefinitely

GAZA: More than two months after Israel and Hamas agreed a ceasefire halting two years of devastating warfare in Gaza, most fighting has stopped. However, both sides accuse each other of major breaches of the deal and look no closer to accepting the much more difficult steps envisaged for the next phase.

Ceasefire steps are outlined in three different documents. The most detailed is a 20-point plan issued by US President Donald Trump in September for an initial truce followed by steps toward a wider peace. It ultimately calls for Hamas to disarm and have no governing role in Gaza and for Israel to pull out of the territory. The sides have not fully agreed to everything in it.

On October 9 Israel and Hamas did sign a more limited ceasefire deal involving only the first parts of Trump’s plan – a hostage and prisoner release, a halt to warfare, partial Israeli withdrawal and a surge in aid. The Trump plan was then endorsed by a third document, a United Nations Security Council resolution that also authorized a transitional governing body and international stabilization force in Gaza.

All 20 remaining living hostages were returned, as well as hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees. Returning dead hostages has taken longer, with one body remaining in Gaza and 27 returned. Palestinian bodies have been returned in exchange for each Israeli body. There’s a dispute over aid. Hamas says fewer trucks are entering Gaza than was agreed. Aid agencies say there is far less aid than required, and that Israel is blocking many necessary items from coming in. Israel denies that and says it is abiding by its obligations under the truce.

The Rafah border crossing into Egypt was meant to be opened in the first phase of the ceasefire. It remains closed and Israel has said it will only be opened for Palestinians entering and leaving Gaza when the body of the last hostage is returned. Gaza remains in ruins, with residents pulling bars from the rubble to construct tents. The UN children’s agency said in December that a “shockingly high” number of Gazan children were still acutely malnourished, while heavy rain has flooded thousands of tents and swept sewage and garbage across the territory, adding to a health crisis.

Some violence has continued. Palestinian militants have launched attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza, killing at least three. Israeli fire at people near the demarcation line, and during operations that Israel says are targeting Hamas, has killed around 400 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.

An international stabilization force is supposed to ensure security and peace inside Gaza but its composition, role and mandate are all up in the air. 

Indonesia and Pakistan may play a role. Israel wants any such force to disarm Hamas, a job few countries would relish handing their troops.

A technocratic Palestinian body without Hamas representation is meant to govern for a transitional period but there have been no public announcements about how or when it will be formed. The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, is supposed to carry out unspecified reforms before ultimately taking a role in Gaza. But these have not been announced either.

The Gaza government should be overseen by an international Board of Peace chaired by Trump. He has said this will be announced early in 2026 but its composition remains unclear. Under the Trump plan, Hamas is meant to disarm but the group has not agreed to that, saying it will only give up its weapons once there is a Palestinian state. Further Israeli pullbacks within Gaza are tied to disarmament.

WILL THE CEASEFIRE LAST?

Israel has repeatedly indicated that if Hamas is not disarmed peacefully, it will resume military action to make it do so, though a return to full-blown war does not look close.

However, many Israelis and Palestinians suspect the Trump plan will never be fully realized and that the current frozen conflict will continue indefinitely.

Israelis fear Hamas could rearm and threaten another attack like that of October 7, 2023.

Palestinians fear Israel will never finish pulling out of Gaza or allow full reconstruction, leaving the territory in ruins and its people without a future. Military deployments and construction plans point to a possible de facto partition of the enclave into a zone directly controlled by Israel where it has been cultivating anti Hamas groups, and a Hamas-held area without reconstruction or services.

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF LONG-TERM PEACE?

Israelis and Palestinians have rarely trusted each other less and the two-state solution, seen by most countries as the best chance of a lasting peace, has never looked so remote — despite growing international recognition for a Palestinian state.

The Trump plan recognizes self-determination and statehood as the aspiration of the Palestinian people but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly ruled this out.

Elections are due in Israel in 2026 but there is no indication that any potential new government would accept Palestinian independence.


Iran launches missiles at Israel as attacks in Middle East commence for a sixth day

Updated 22 min 18 sec ago
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Iran launches missiles at Israel as attacks in Middle East commence for a sixth day

  • IRGC: Strikes against Iran would result in “the complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure”
  • Drones and missiles intercepted in different countries, including Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, after IRGC warning

DUBAI: Iran launched missiles at Israel early Thursday as aerial attacks in the Middle East commenced for a sixth day after an American submarine sank an Iranian warship and Iran threatened the destruction of military and economic infrastructure across the region.
Israel announced the incoming attack shortly after its military said it had begun new strikes in Lebanon targeting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
The fighting continued after the US and Israel intensified their bombardment Wednesday of Iran’s security forces and other symbols of power.
The tempo of the strikes on Iran was so intense that state television announced the mourning ceremony for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of the conflict, would be postponed. Millions attended the funeral of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989.
The US and Israel launched the war Saturday, targeting Iran’s leadership, missile arsenal and nuclear program while suggesting that toppling the government is a goal. But the exact aims and timelines have repeatedly shifted, signaling an open-ended conflict.
President Donald Trump praised the US military Wednesday for “doing very well on the war front, to put it mildly.” Fellow Republicans in the US Senate stood with Trump on Iran as they voted down a resolution seeking to halt the war.
Iran fired on Bahrain, Kuwait and Israel as the conflict spiraled. Turkiye said NATO defenses intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran before it entered Turkiye’s airspace.
The war has killed more than 1,000 people in Iran, more than 70 in Lebanon and around a dozen in Israel, according to officials in those countries. It has disrupted the supply of the world’s oil and gas, snarled international shipping and stranded hundreds of thousands of travelers in the Middle East.

Buildings of Iranian military and security forces targeted
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said a torpedo from an American submarine sank an Iranian warship Tuesday night in the Indian Ocean.
Sri Lankan authorities said 32 people were rescued from the ship, while the country’s navy said it recovered 87 bodies.
Israel said it hit buildings associated with Iran’s Basij, the all-volunteer force of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard whose bloody crackdown on protesters in January left thousands dead.
The Israeli military hit buildings associated with Iran’s internal security command. Israel and the US have said they want to see Iranians overthrow the country’s theocracy, and strikes against Iran’s internal security forces may be aimed at hastening that.
However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said his country’s forces have decentralized leadership, with units acting largely on their own, which could blunt the effect of attacks on top command and control hubs.
Iranian state television showed the ruins of buildings in Tehran and interviews with people saying the attacks damaged their homes. Strikes were also reported in the city of Qom targeting a building associated with a clerical panel set to pick Iran’s next supreme leader. Iranian media said it was empty at the time.
Shifting timelines for US operations
During his Pentagon briefing, Hegseth did not give a definitive timeline for US operations.
“You can say four weeks, but it could be six. It could be eight. It could be three,” he said. “Ultimately, we set the pace and the tempo. The enemy is off balance, and we’re going to keep them off balance.”
Adm. Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, said American forces have damaged Iran’s air defenses and taken out ballistic missiles, launchers and drones.
US and Israeli military officials say launches from Iran have declined as the war has progressed. Israel’s Homefront Command announced it was easing restrictions that closed workplaces nationwide. It said workplaces could reopen Thursday if there’s a shelter nearby. Schools would remain closed.
Still, explosions sounded early Thursday in Israel, which said its defensive systems were moving to intercept Iranian missiles.
At least 1,045 people have been killed in Iran, the country’s Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs said Wednesday. Eleven people have died in Israel. Six US troops have been killed.
The death toll has exceeded 70 in Lebanon, where the health ministry said Wednesday that three people died when drone strikes hit two vehicles on a Beirut highway. The Israeli military said it was targeting a Hezbollah member.
Israel says its offensive had been planned for midyear
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the offensive against Iran was originally planned for mid-2026, but “the need arose to bring everything forward to February.”
He listed events inside Iran, Trump’s positions and the possibility of “creating a combined operation” as reasons.
The protests in Iran put unprecedented pressure on its leadership. Trump threatened military action in response to the crackdown before shifting his attention to Iran’s disputed nuclear program.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that the US launched its operation partly out of concern Iran might strike American personnel and assets in the region first. A phone call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the airstrikes began was also “important with respect to the timeline,” she said.
Energy supplies in the crosshairs
Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard issued its most-intense threat yet, saying the strikes against it would result in “the complete destruction of the region’s military and economic infrastructure.”
A Maltese-flagged container ship was attacked Wednesday while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Arabian Gulf through which about a fifth of the world’s oil is shipped. The ship was hit by two missiles, sparking a fire, according to Malta’s transport minister, Chris Bonett. Its 24 crew members were rescued.
Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by around 90 percent compared to prewar levels, shipping tracker MarineTraffic.com said Wednesday.
Oil prices have soared as Iranian attacks have disrupted traffic through the strait, and global stock markets have been hammered over worries that the spike in oil prices may grind down the world economy.
Iran’s clerics are choosing a new supreme leader
Iran’s leaders are scrambling to replace Khamenei, who ruled the country for 37 years. It’s only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that a new supreme leader is being chosen.
Potential candidates range from hard-liners committed to confrontation with the West to reformists who seek diplomatic engagement. Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son, has long been considered among them — though he has never been elected or appointed to a government position.
In a sign that Iran’s leadership will only seek to consolidate its power as it faces its biggest crisis in decades, the head of the judiciary warned that “those who cooperate with the enemy in any way will be considered an enemy.”
Israel’s defense minister, Katz, said on X that Iran’s next supreme leader — if he continues to threaten Israel, the US and others — “will be a target for elimination.”