Pakistan business confidence dips in Q4 as inflation, power outages sap sentiment — Gallup

A vendor uses a mobile phone as he waits for customers at a market in Lahore on July 31, 2025. (AFP/File)
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Updated 17 November 2025
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Pakistan business confidence dips in Q4 as inflation, power outages sap sentiment — Gallup

  • Business confidence weakens across all indicators though sentiment remains stronger than Q4 2024
  • Inflation re-emerges as top concern and 42% of firms report load-shedding on survey day

KARACHI: Pakistan’s business confidence slipped across all major indicators in the fourth quarter of 2025 as inflationary pressures and persistent power outages weighed on sentiment, according to new survey findings released by Gallup Pakistan on Monday.

The results, drawn from interviews with 571 businesses for the 16th wave of the Business Confidence Index (BCI), show that while confidence has softened since Q2 2025, overall sentiment remains stronger than the same period last year.

Opinion on current business conditions fell from +20% to +8%, future expectations declined from +22% to +12%, and views on the country’s direction worsened from –2% to –8%, pointing to a more cautious economic outlook.

“Business Confidence has slided minorly, but the message from businesses is clear: economic stabilization is not enough, without a stronger growth rate, sentiment will continue to move in short bursts rather than in a steady upward path." said Bilal Gilani, Executive Director of Gallup Pakistan and Director of the Economic Indicators Series.

"Stability helped, but growth now has to take the lead. PMLN led government however continues to be entrusted with confidence by the wider business community to bring relief and reforms.” 

Inflation remained the most cited concern, with 33% of businesses urging the government to prioritize price stability amid recent upward movements in food and energy markets. Power supply issues also persist, with 42% of firms reporting load-shedding on the day of the survey, similar to last year despite large investments in electricity infrastructure.

On economic governance, 46% of businesses said the current government of premier Shehbaz Sharif led by ruling PML-N party is performing better than the previous administration led by jailed ex-PM Imran Khan, unchanged from Q2 and five points higher than a year earlier.


Pakistan to launch AI screening in January to target fake visas, agent networks

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Pakistan to launch AI screening in January to target fake visas, agent networks

  • New system to flag forged-document travelers before boarding and pre-verify eligibility
  • Move comes amid increasing concern over fake visas, fraudulent agents, forged papers

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will roll out an AI-based immigration screening system in Islamabad from January to detect forged documents and prevent illegal overseas travel, the government said on Thursday. 

The move comes amid increasing concern over fake visas, fraudulent agents and forged papers, with officials warning that such activity has contributed to deportations, human smuggling and reputational damage abroad. Pakistan has also faced scrutiny over irregular migration flows and labor-market vulnerability, particularly in the Gulf region, prompting calls for more reliable pre-departure checks and digital verification.

The reforms include plans to make the protector-stamp system — the clearance required for Pakistani citizens seeking overseas employment — “foolproof”, tighten labor-visa documentation, and cancel the passports of deportees to prevent them from securing visas again. The government has sought final recommendations within seven days, signalling a rapid enforcement timeline.

“To stop illegal immigration, an AI-based app pilot project is being launched in Islamabad from January,” Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said following a high-level meeting chaired by him and Minister for Overseas Pakistanis Chaudhry Salik Hussain.

Naqvi said the new screening technology is intended to determine travelers’ eligibility in advance, reducing airport off-loads and closing loopholes exploited by traffickers and unregistered agents.

The interior minister added that Pakistan remains in contact with foreign governments to improve the global perception and ranking of the green passport, while a uniform international driving license will be issued through the National Police Bureau.

The meeting also approved zero-tolerance measures against fraudulent visa brokers, while the Overseas Pakistanis Ministry pledged full cooperation to streamline the emigration workflow. Minister Hussain said transparency in the protector process has become a “basic requirement,” particularly for labor-migration cases.

Pakistan’s current immigration system has long struggled with document fraud, with repeated cases of passengers grounded at airports due to forged papers or agent-facilitated travel. The launch of an AI screening layer, if implemented effectively, could shift the burden from manual counters to pre-flight verification, allowing authorities to identify risk profiles before departure rather than after arrival abroad.

The reforms also come at a moment when labor mobility is tightening globally. Gulf states have begun demanding greater documentation assurance for imported labor, while European and Asian destinations have increased scrutiny following trafficking arrests and irregular-entry routes from South Asia. For Pakistan, preventing fraudulent departures is increasingly linked to protecting genuine workers, reducing deportation cycles and stabilizing the country’s overseas employment footprint.