DAKAR: By waging an economic blockade and conducting attacks on fuel convoys, the militant group JNIM has made itself the arch nemesis of Mali’s junta, weakening the country’s central government in an unprecedented manner.
The Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, as it is formally known, is the “most significant threat in the Sahel,” according to the United Nations.
But what does the group want and who is behind it?
Vague numbers
JNIM, which is actively extending its influence throughout the Sahel, formed in 2017 when several militant factions merged, including the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Katiba Macina.
The group’s head, Iyad Ag Ghaly, is a Tuareg leader from Kidal, Mali, near the Algerian border.
It is difficult to estimate the number of fighters in JNIM’s ranks, but according to the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute think tank, Katiba Macina alone has between 5,000 and 8,000 men.
“A lot of JNIM combatants probably go in and out. They are part-time,” Michael Shurkin, the director of global programs at 14 North Strategies and a former CIA agent, told AFP.
Expansion toward south, west
The group, which initially formed in the north of the country, has extended its influence in recent months across a large swath of Malian territory, particularly in the south and west.
The toll from JNIM attacks this year alone had already reached 2,100 deaths as of November 7, an annual record according to an AFP analysis of data available since 2019 from the NGO ACLED.
The group’s activity in the southern half of the county has also been unprecedented, with 271 attacks since September alone.
In August, JNIM intensified its deadly raids on the Kayes region of western Mali, a particularly strategic area for the group because it provides approximately 80 percent of Mali’s gold production, according to the Soufan Center think tank.
The Kayes region, which borders Senegal, Mauritania and Mali, is also crucial for the delivery of food and fuel to Mali, which lacks direct access to the sea.
JNIM indirectly governs villages via agreements tailored to different localities, claiming in its propaganda to be defending the local populations.
“This is not (the waging of) permanent physical control over a territory, but rather done via rules they establish and taxes they collect,” Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone, the Sahel project manager at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told AFP.
‘Logic of terror’
JNIM has begun to “adopt the guise of an increasingly political movement,” Bakary Sambe of the Timbuktu Institute told AFP.
“It presents itself as an organization seeking to protect marginalized groups” against what it says is the failure of political elites and abuses by the Malian army and its Russian mercenaries, Sambe said.
“JNIM operates according to a logic of terror, giving itself the right to attack those who directly oppose its ideology,” he added.
Two weeks ago in the central town of Lere, for example, the group killed at least 14 civilians it suspected of collaborating with the Malian army.
What does JNIM want?
One of JNIM’s driving goals is the establishment of Sharia, the Islamic legal code.
The militants have additionally imposed new rules on travelers, requiring separation of men and women particularly on public transportation, and requiring women to wear veils.
But overall, its objectives remain unclear.
The possibility of JNIM taking Bamako, Mali’s capital with a population of nearly three million, seems unlikely at this stage according to observers, as the militants lack military or governance capabilities.
“Nobody really knows for sure what JNIM intends to do,” Shurkin of 14 North Strategies said. “Are they intending to collapse the Malian government, to take over Bamako, or to just make it irrelevant?”
“It’s an evolving objective,” Kone of ISS added. “We see that this objective is becoming increasingly political.”
Colossal ransom
JNIM has numerous funding streams, including ransoms from kidnappings, especially of Westerners. It also participates in theft and resale of livestock and collects “zakat,” an Islamic tax.
Two weeks ago the militants were paid $50 million for the release of an Emirati hostage and his Pakistani and Iranian associates, an unprecedented and colossal financial windfall in one of the poorest countries in the world.
“With this ransom, I believe there will be a strategic boost,” Sambe of the Timbuktu Institute said.
“Whatever they want at this point, I don’t see why they won’t get it sooner or later,” Shurkin added. “I don’t think that the Malian government has the ability to reverse this.”
Mali’s JNIM militants: armed fighters or politically ambitious belligerents?
https://arab.news/z3mr6
Mali’s JNIM militants: armed fighters or politically ambitious belligerents?
- UN says the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group is the ‘most significant threat in the Sahel’
- JNIM has numerous funding streams, including ransoms from kidnappings, especially of Westerners
Hong Kong election turnout in focus amid anger over deadly fire
- Security tight as city holds legislative elections
- Residents angry over blaze that killed at least 159
HONG KONG: Hong Kong’s citizens were voting on Sunday in an election where the focus is on turnout, with residents grieving and traumatized after the city’s worst fire in nearly 80 years and the authorities scrambling to avoid a broader public backlash.
Security was tight in the northern district of Tai Po, close to the border with mainland China, where the fire engulfed seven towers. The city is holding elections for the Legislative Council, in which only candidates vetted as “patriots” by the China-backed Hong Kong government may run.
Residents are angry over the blaze that killed at least 159 people and took nearly two days to extinguish after it broke out on November 26. The authorities say substandard building materials used in renovating a high-rise housing estate were responsible for fueling the fire.
Eager to contain the public dismay, authorities have launched criminal and corruption investigations into the blaze, and roughly 100 police patrolled the area around Wang Fuk Court, the site of the fire, early on Sunday.
A resident in his late 70s named Cheng, who lives near the charred buildings, said he would not vote.
“I’m very upset by the great fire,” he said during a morning walk. “This is a result of a flawed government ... There is not a healthy system now and I won’t vote to support those pro-establishment politicians who failed us.”
Cheng declined to give his full name, saying he feared authorities would target those who criticize the government.
At a memorial site near the burned-out residential development, a sign said authorities plan to clear the area after the election concludes close to midnight, suggesting government anxiety over public anger.
Beijing’s national security office in Hong Kong has said it would crack down on any “anti-China” protest in the wake of the fire and warned against using the disaster to “disrupt Hong Kong.”
China’s national security office in Hong Kong warned senior editors with a number of foreign media outlets at a meeting in the city on Saturday not to spread “false information” or “smear” government efforts to deal with the fire.
The blaze is a major test of Beijing’s grip on the former British colony, which it has transformed under a national security law after mass pro-democracy protests in 2019.
An election overhaul in 2021 also mandated that only pro-Beijing “patriots” could run for the global financial hub’s 90-seat legislature and, analysts say, further reduced the space for meaningful democratic participation.
Publicly inciting a vote boycott was criminalized as part of the sweeping changes that effectively squeezed out pro-democracy voices in Hong Kong. Pro-democracy voters, who traditionally made up about 60 percent of Hong Kong’s electorate, have since shunned elections.
The number of registered voters for Sunday’s polls — 4.13 million — has dropped for the fourth consecutive year since 2021, when a peak of 4.47 million people were registered.
Seven people had been arrested as of Thursday for inciting others not to vote, the city’s anti-corruption body said.
Hong Kong and Chinese officials have stepped up calls for people to vote.
“We absolutely need all voters to come out and vote today, because every vote represents our push for reform, our protection of the victims of disaster, and a representation of our will to unite and move forward together,” Hong Kong leader John Lee said after casting his vote.
Hong Kong’s national security office urged residents on Thursday to “actively participate in voting,” saying it was critical in supporting reconstruction efforts by the government after the fire.
“Every voter is a stakeholder in the homeland of Hong Kong,” the office said in a statement. “If you truly love Hong Kong, you will vote sincerely.”
The last Legislative Council elections in 2021 recorded the lowest voter turnout — 30.2 percent — since Britain returned Hong Kong to Chinese rule in 1997.
