IMF expects MENA inflation to ease in 2025 and 2026 

Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a stable inflation rate, with the IMF forecasting its Consumer Price Index at 2.1 percent in 2025. Shutterstock
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Updated 21 October 2025
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IMF expects MENA inflation to ease in 2025 and 2026 

RIYADH: Lower energy costs will help inflation ease to 12.2 percent this year and 10.3 percent in 2026 across the Middle East and North Africa, according to the International Monetary Fund. 

In its October 2025 Regional Economic Outlook, the IMF said inflation is slowing from 14.2 percent in 2024, with fiscal tightening and subsidy reforms also having an impact.

Inflation in Gulf economies remains among the lowest globally, reflecting stable exchange rates and prudent fiscal policies, with the Gulf Cooperation Council’s average rate projected at 1.7 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026 — underscoring the bloc’s resilience to global price pressures. 

Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a stable inflation rate, with the IMF forecasting its Consumer Price Index at 2.1 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. 

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said: “Inflation trends vary across the region, but in most economies, inflation is moderating or declining, supported by tight monetary policy and lower food and energy prices.” 

He added: “Financial conditions have also improved: sovereign spreads have narrowed, currencies have adjusted smoothly, and several countries have regained market access.” 

In the UAE, inflation is expected at 1.6 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026, while Qatar’s rates are forecast at 0.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively. 

The MENA region’s double-digit inflation reflects high consumer prices in countries such as Iran, Kazakhstan, Egypt, and Sudan. 

Iran’s inflation is projected at 42.4 percent in 2025, easing slightly to 41.6 percent in 2026. Kazakhstan’s rate is expected to remain elevated at 11.4 percent in 2025, up from 8.7 percent in 2024. 

Sudan faces the region’s highest inflation, projected at 87.2 percent in 2025 and 54.6 percent in 2026, following 185.7 percent in 2024. Egypt’s inflation is expected to ease to 20.4 percent in 2025, down from 33.3 percent in 2024. 

The IMF also projects the inflation rate for the broader Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region at 11.2 percent in 2025 and 9.8 percent in 2026, down from 15.2 percent in 2024. 

GDP growth projections 

The IMF said the MENA region is expected to see a gross domestic product expansion of 3.3 percent in 2025, rising to 3.7 percent in 2026. 

In the MENAP region, the economy is projected to grow by 3.2 percent in 2025, before accelerating to 3.7 percent in 2026, supported by higher oil output, rising domestic demand, and ongoing reforms. 

“So far in 2025, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa has shown remarkable resilience, despite persistent global uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions,” said Azour. 

He added: “The region has largely avoided direct fallout from higher US tariffs and global trade restrictions. And while recent tensions have raised concern, their impact has been limited and short-lived.” 

In the GCC region, the economy is forecast to expand by 3.9 percent in 2025, further accelerating to 4.3 percent in 2026. 

Among MENA oil exporters, stronger growth stems primarily from higher-than-expected production following the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts. Growth in these economies is projected at 3 percent in 2025 and 3.4 percent in 2026, compared with 2.5 percent last year. 

According to the IMF, Saudi Arabia’s economy is projected to grow by 4 percent in both 2025 and 2026, while the UAE economy is expected to expand by 4.8 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026. 

“GDP growth in MENA is expected to strengthen further this year and next, driven by resilient demand, higher oil output, and ongoing reforms. Over the medium term, growth should gradually accelerate as reforms and stabilization policies take hold,” said Azour. 

On the downside, he cautioned that elevated geopolitical tensions in the region could negatively affect economic growth. 

He also noted that lower global demand or tighter financial conditions could put pressure on countries with large financing needs or banking systems heavily exposed to sovereign debt. 


How mining can transform Saudi Arabia’s economy

Updated 07 March 2026
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How mining can transform Saudi Arabia’s economy

  • Kingdom’s mineral wealth valued at $2.5tn, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is accelerating its push into mining as part of its economic transformation under Vision 2030, amid the growing importance of critical minerals and rare earths.

The Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at $2.5 trillion, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy alongside hydrocarbons.

The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market, according to economists and industry specialists.

Saudi Arabia is home to more than 45 identified minerals, including gold, copper and uranium, according to the Vision 2030 strategy.

Momentum has been supported by measures aimed at making mining easier to invest in and faster to scale, including updated regulations, digital licensing platforms, specialized mining services, and new transport and rail links to mining areas.

Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment, according to published government targets.

Signs of progress are starting to show in the mining sector in terms of exploration activity, licensing and new discoveries.

“The mining strategy shows it’s working very well, evidenced by the rapid rise in exploration and industrial licenses, and major new mineral discoveries,” Talat Hafiz, an economist and financial analyst, told Arab News.

Saudi Arabia is undertaking the world’s largest geological survey, covering about 700,000 sq. km of the Arabian Shield for $1.5 billion, he said. 

The number of mining licenses issued exceeds 2,000, according to official data, and the Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at 90 percent higher than it was in 2016 when Vision 2030 was rolled out.

A key milestone highlighted in Vision 2030’s mining strategy was the introduction of a new mining investment law, which reduced the tax rate to 20 percent from 45 percent to spur investment and align the sector with global standards.

The Kingdom’s mining resources position it well to be a critical supplier of raw materials that are integral to energy transition as clean-energy technologies require large volumes of mined materials.

Copper is central to electrification and power networks, while battery supply chains rely on minerals such as nickel and lithium. Phosphate is a key industrial input with wider economic value.

Reliable supplies of metals and minerals used in power grids, batteries and electric vehicles can attract investment and support downstream industry in the Kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s Jabal Sayid site, northeast of Jeddah, ranks among the world’s top four resources for rare earth elements, Khalid Al-Mudaifer, vice minister of industry and mineral resources for mining affairs, recently told Al Eqtisadiah.

It will help meet Saudi Arabia’s needs for minerals used in magnet manufacturing, EVs and wind energy, while also supporting global supply, including the US market, he said.

Mining can also catalyze investment in the Kingdom, widen supply-chain employment, and boost non-oil exports and private-sector growth, according to economists and policymakers.

Mines, processing plants and the infrastructure around them require large upfront capital spending, creating a pipeline of work across construction, equipment, utilities and logistics. 

The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market. (Shutterstock)

“When a mining sector scales, the economic footprint extends well beyond extraction,” said Turki Al-Nahari, vice president of global mining at Ecolab, told Arab News. “Growth typically occurs across engineering services, industrial water management, logistics, laboratory testing, equipment reliability, environmental services and digital performance systems.

“That shift creates demand for skilled engineers, technicians, data analysts and operational specialists,” he added.

In 2025, Saudi Arabia’s mining exploration budget increased 600 percent to $146 million from $21 million in 2022.

“This growth is driven by ongoing geological surveys, technological advancements and higher exploitation budgets, all of which signal stability and opportunity, attracting foreign investment,” Manraj Lamba, a mining economics analyst at S&P Global, said in a recent report.

Mining projects are easier to finance when the size and quality of the deposit are clear, costs are competitive, and rules and taxes are stable, Abdullah Al-Harbi, an economist familiar with the industry, told Arab News.

Investors want solid feasibility work, credible timelines and evidence a project can stay profitable through swings in commodity prices, Al-Harbi said.

Saudi Arabia’s pipeline includes 24 exploration-stage projects and 17 more advanced developments, according to S&P Global.

“Its proactive approach to geological surveys and resource assessment has uncovered significant potential across gold, copper, phosphate and bauxite,” Lamba said.

Large projects also tend to generate employment across a wider industrial supply chain, including contractors, maintenance, laboratories, transport and a range of operational services.

To boost employment and support hiring and training, Saudi Arabia has moved to standardize job roles and skills for the mining industry. 

HIGHLIGHT

Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment.

The Kingdom rolled out a framework related to employment and skills in the mining industry in January at the Global Labor Market Conference.

The framework is “a tool which ensures clear definitions of occupations and their required skills,” the Kingdom’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef said. It will cover more than 500 job roles, detail the necessary skills, responsibilities and titles, he added.

Exports from the sector are already rising in tandem with investments to develop the industry and create jobs.

Saudi Arabia exported 5.7 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizer in 2024, up about 6 percent from 2023, according to a GASTAT report.

As the energy transition accelerates, Saudi Arabia’s advantage may be strongest beyond extraction alone.

“Saudi Arabia’s most realistic advantage in the accelerating energy transition lies in combining selective mining with strong processing and refining capabilities, supported by its emerging role as a logistics and supply-chain hub,” Hafiz said.

The Kingdom’s position between Africa, Europe, and Asia favors downstream processing and value-added industries, he added.

“Saudi Arabia is prioritizing minerals that are both financeable and strategically aligned with emerging industries such as electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, where markets are clear, and demand is scalable,” Hafiz said.

Aluminum, phosphate, and similar commodities remain a key focus to support local manufacturing, infrastructure development and downstream industries while strengthening export capacity, he said.

“Once construction concludes, the priority shifts to operational stability and performance optimization,” Al-Nahari said.

“Small efficiency gains, applied consistently across large-scale operations, compound materially over time,” influencing cost as well as uptime and competitiveness over the life of a mine, he added.

As the global race toward electrification and decarbonization accelerates, the Kingdom is effectively positioning itself beyond its oil legacy with its strategic commitment to the minerals sector, which will play a critical role in powering the future.

Its investment in exploration, infrastructure, and downstream processing anchor it as a pivotal supplier in the critical minerals and rare earths value chain in the era of energy transition.