LONDON: Ukraine is intensifying strikes on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, with more than 30 attacks since early August, aimed at weakening Moscow’s ability to finance war against its neighbor.
Current consequence?
Russia is the world’s third-largest producer and second-biggest exporter of crude oil. Oil and gas revenues represented about 30 percent of its budget in 2024, or largest source of state funds according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Kyiv’s attacks have so far been “quite effective,” with Russian refinery production rates having “dropped around 10 percent,” Homayoun Falakshahi, analyst at energy research group Kpler, told AFP.
Faced with a risk of shortages, Moscow recently restricted exports of petroleum products until the end of the year and extended a ban on gasoline exports.
Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah said that Russia’s refinery production dropped to an average of 4.9 million barrels per day by mid-September, down about 400,000 bpd compared to the first half of 2025.
The scarcity of Russian refined products has significantly widened the gap between the price of a barrel of Russian crude oil and that of refined products.
The impact on pump prices is already being felt. As of September 1, retail gasoline cost 6.7 percent more compared to the end of 2024, according to Russia’s official statistics agency Rosstat.
This despite a sharp drop in the price of a barrel of crude oil over the same period.
Long-term impact?
Russia’s situation risks worsening because damaged infrastructure typically takes an “extended time” to return to normal operations, Shah explained.
This at a time when revenue from Russian crude oil is primarily affected by falling global prices as markets expect abundant supplies in the coming months.
SEB bank analyst Bjarne Schieldrop believes the “situation will likely become worse... as Ukraine becomes better at attacking Russian refineries,” forecasting an end to exports of all Russian oil products as well as the introduction of domestic rationing.
The US envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has floated the possibility of long-range strikes by Ukraine against Russia using American weapons.
In trying to export some of the oil intended for its refineries Russia has come up against difficult logistical problems, while the number of countries willing to import more of its crude is limited.
Strikes versus sanctions?
So far, international sanctions aimed at weakening Moscow “are not working,” according to Adi Imsirovic, director of the Surrey Clean Energy consultancy.
Delayed implementation of certain sanctions gave Russia’s President Vladimir Putin time “to build a parallel trading system,” he said.
Washington’s doubling of tariffs on many of India’s products has failed to curb the country’s purchase of Russian crude.
On the other hand, with the withdrawal of Western oil companies from Russia, investment in the nation’s energy infrastructure has declined considerably, limiting its ability to increase crude output over the coming years.
Russia, which produces “around 9.25 million barrels per day,” according to Falakshahi, has a “maximum production capacity of 9.45 mbpd” compared to around 10 mbpd before the war.
Ukraine strikes put pressure on Russian oil
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Ukraine strikes put pressure on Russian oil
- Russia is the world’s third-largest producer and second-biggest exporter of crude oil
- Oil and gas revenues represented about 30 percent of its budget in 2024
Afghanistan says it thwarted Pakistani airstrike on Bagram Air Base as fighting enters fourth day
- The fighting has been the most severe between the neighbors for years
- Pakistan accuses Taliban government of harboring militant groups that stage attacks against it
KABUL: Afghanistan thwarted attempted airstrikes on Bagram Air Base, the former US military base north of Kabul, authorities said Sunday, while cross-border fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan stretched into a fourth day.
The fighting has been the most severe between the neighbors for years, with Pakistan declaring that it’s in “open war” with Afghanistan.
The conflict has alarmed the international community, particularly as the area is one where other militant organizations, including Al-Qaeda and the Daesh group, still have a presence and have been trying to resurface.
Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban government of harboring militant groups that stage attacks against it and also of allying with its archrival India.
Border clashes in October killed dozens of soldiers, civilians and suspected militants until a Qatari-mediated ceasefire ended the intense fighting. But several rounds of peace talks in Turkiye in November failed to produce a lasting agreement, and the two sides have occasionally traded fire since then.
On Sunday, the police headquarters of Parwan province, where Bagram is located, said in a statement that several Pakistani military jets had entered Afghan airspace “and attempted to bomb Bagram Air Base” at around 5 a.m.
The statement said Afghan forces responded with “anti-aircraft and missile defense systems” and had managed to thwart the attack.
There was no immediate response from Pakistan’s military or government regarding Kabul’s claim of attempted airstrikes on Bagram or the ongoing fighting.
Bagram was the United States’ largest military base in Afghanistan. It was taken over by the Taliban as they swept across the country and took control in the wake of the chaotic US withdrawal from the country in 2021. Last year, US President Donald Trump suggested he wanted to reestablish a US presence at the base.
The current fighting began when Afghanistan launched a broad cross-border attack on Thursday night, saying it was in retaliation for Pakistani airstrikes the previous Sunday.
Pakistan had said its airstrike had targeted the outlawed Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP. Afghanistan had said only civilians were killed.
The TTP militant group, which is separate but closely allied with Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban, operates inside Pakistan, where it has been blamed for hundreds of deaths in bombings and other attacks over the years.
Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban government of providing a safe haven within Afghanistan for the TTP, an accusation that Afghanistan denies.
After Thursday’s Afghan attack, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif declared that “our patience has now run out. Now it is open war between us.”
In the ongoing fighting, each side claims to have killed hundreds of the other side’s forces — and both governments put their own casualties at drastically lower numbers.
Two Pakistani security officials said that Pakistani ground forces were still in control on Sunday of a key Afghan post and a 32-square-kilometer area in the southern Zhob sector near Kandahar province, after having seized it during fighting Friday. The captured post and surrounding area remain under Pakistani control, they added. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity, because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.
In Kabul, the Afghan government rejected Pakistan’s claims. Deputy government spokesman Hamdullah Fitrat called the reports “baseless.”
Afghan officials said that fighting had continued overnight and into Sunday in the border areas.
The police command spokesman for Nangarhar province, Said Tayyeb Hammad, said that anti-aircraft missiles were used from the provincial capital, Jalalabad, and surrounding areas on Pakistani fighter jets flying overhead Sunday morning.
Defense Ministry spokesman Enayatulah Khowarazmi said that Afghan forces had launched counterattacks with snipers across the border from Nangarhar, Paktia, Khost and Kandahar provinces overnight. He said that two Pakistani drones had been shot down and dozens of Pakistani soldiers had been killed.
Fitrat said that Pakistani drone attacks hit civilian homes in Nangarhar province late Saturday, killing a woman and a child, while mortar fire killed another civilian when it hit a home in Paktia province.
There was no immediate response to the claims from Pakistani officials.
