ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s flood crisis moved downstream on Monday, with Sindh province warning that more than 300,000 people could be hit this week as surging river waters sweep south from neighboring Punjab.

Punjab, the country’s most populous province and agricultural heartland, has borne the brunt of the disaster since late August. Officials there say 60 people have died, millions displaced and vast tracts of farmland destroyed after weeks of monsoon rains and controlled water releases from Indian dams, which authorities there carry out to manage reservoir levels during heavy rains.

Floodwaters are now racing down the Indus basin, fed by Punjab’s three eastern rivers — the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej — which have been swollen by weeks of heavy rains and dam releases in India. As the torrents merge into the Indus, Pakistan’s longest river, the surge is expected to hit Sindh this week, threatening towns and farmland along the river’s southern course before it empties into the Arabian Sea.

“The protection of people’s lives and property is the Sindh government’s top priority, and the provincial government stands with the people at all times,” Sindh information minister Sharjeel Inam Memon said in a statement.

He said 133,887 people and 380,363 animals had already been shifted to safe locations, while the most dangerous flood situation was at Panjnad, where the Chenab and Sutlej rivers meet, and at Trimmu, a key headworks on the Chenab in central Punjab.

President Asif Ali Zardari, whose Pakistan Peoples Party governs Sindh, also urged institutions to remain on high alert.

“Provincial, district and local government institutions should be on alert to deal with possible flood situation,” his office said.

PUNJAB DEVASTATION

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Punjab’s information minister Azma Bokhari said the province had shifted 2.147 million people and 1.55 million animals to safer places, with more than 4.2 million people in total affected since the latest spell of monsoon rains and flooding began in late August.

“Overall, 4,335 areas have been affected [by floods] and from this, you can estimate its severity,” she said.

Bokhari added that the province’s farmland had been hit hard, with about 1.84 million acres under cultivation destroyed, including rice, sugarcane, cotton and vegetables.

Punjab Relief Commissioner Nabeel Javed said the scale of the disaster had forced authorities to set up 412 relief camps, 492 medical camps and 432 veterinary camps across flood-hit districts. 

Javed added that Mangla Dam was now 88 percent full and Tarbela at 100 percent, while India’s Bhakra, Pong and Thein dams across the Sutlej and Ravi were between 90 and 99 percent full.

“Unfortunately, 60 people have died in this flood,” he said, adding that Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz had directed officials to compensate citizens for losses.

Rescue 1122 said operations were continuing in Multan, a major city in southern Punjab that sits near the confluence of the Chenab and Sutlej rivers and lies directly in the path of floodwaters moving toward Sindh. In Multan alone, more than 10,800 people have been rescued so far, including 2,343 in the past 24 hours, while the district administration has already carried out advance evacuation of 350,000 people and 300,000 animals, according to Rescue Punjab spokesperson Farooq Ahmed.

He said residents of Muzaffargarh, a district squeezed between the Indus and Chenab rivers, and Alipur Jatoi, a tehsil of Muzaffargarh lying on the Indus floodplain, had also been urged to evacuate from high-risk riverbank communities before the surge moves downstream.

RIVER FLOWS

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said on Monday evening water levels remained extremely high in the province’s three eastern rivers — the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej — though flows at some key points were beginning to ease.

On the Chenab River, levels were steady at more than 530,000 cusecs at Trimmu Headworks, a major control structure in central Punjab where the river’s surge is being monitored closely. Flows at Qadirabad and Khanki headworks upstream had started to fall, indicating that the flood peak may already have passed in those areas, though water at Head Muhammad Wala near Multan was still rising.

On the Ravi River, which runs through Lahore before joining the Chenab, flows were falling at Shahdara and Ravi Syphon but were rising further downstream at Balloki, suggesting the flood wave was moving south.

On the Sutlej River, very high flows continued at Ganda Singh Wala, Sulemanki and Islam headworks, while at Panjnad, where the Sutlej meets the Chenab before joining the Indus, levels stood at over 520,000 cusecs. Officials warned that Panjnad’s capacity had been reduced due to a backwater effect from the Indus, adding to flood risks in southern Punjab.

The Indus itself was recorded at over 411,000 cusecs at Guddu Barrage in Sindh, with gauges upstream showing water still rising, underscoring the threat now shifting downstream into Sindh province.

The PDMA warned of more “severe thunderstorm rains” across Punjab in the next 24 hours after Jhelum recorded 96mm of rainfall, Jhang 77mm and Noorpur Thal 70mm. It cautioned of flash flooding in Dera Ghazi Khan until Sept. 9.

Authorities also reported intense rainfall in Lahore on Monday, with some neighborhoods receiving more than 75 millimeters (3 inches) in a few hours. Officials warned that such downpours could trigger flash flooding in low-lying areas of Pakistan’s second-largest city, compounding the broader flood crisis across Punjab and downstream into Sindh.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said the nationwide death toll from rains and floods since June 26 when tis monsoon season began had reached 910.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department forecast further urban and coastal flooding through Sept. 10 as the monsoon’s 10th spell continues.