Oil Updates — prices fall as trade war concerns increase worries about fuel demand

Supply concerns have largely been alleviated by major producers raising output. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 22 July 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — prices fall as trade war concerns increase worries about fuel demand

SINGAPORE: Oil prices declined on Tuesday amid concerns the brewing trade war between major crude consumers, the US and the EU, will curb fuel demand growth by lowering economic activity.

Brent crude futures were down 28 cents, or 0.40 percent, to $68.93 a barrel at 8:58 Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.83 a barrel, down 37 cents, or 0.55 percent. Both benchmarks settled slightly lower on Monday.

The August WTI contract expires on Tuesday, and the more active September contract was down 29 cents, or 0.44 percent, to $65.66 a barrel.

“Broad demand concerns continue to simmer amid escalating global trade tensions, especially as markets eye the latest tariff threats between major economies and Trump’s potential announcements ahead of the August 1 deadline,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Investors are also eyeing the ripple effects of fresh US sanctions on Russian crude,” she added.

Supply concerns have largely been alleviated by major producers raising output, and since a ceasefire on June 24 ended the conflict between Israel and Iran. However, investors are increasingly worried about the global economy amid US trade policy changes.

A weaker US dollar has provided some backing for crude as buyers using other currencies are paying relatively less.

Prices have slipped “as trade war concerns offset the support by a softer (US dollar),” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.
Sycamore also pointed to the possibility of an escalation in the trade dispute between the US and the EU over tariffs.

The EU is exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures against the United States as prospects for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fade, according to EU diplomats. The US has threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on EU imports on Aug. 1 if a deal is not reached.

There are also signs that rising oil supply has entered the market as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies unwind output cuts.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in May rose to their highest in three months, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative showed on Monday. 


GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares skid as oil blasts past $100 after Iran strikes Gulf shipping

Updated 7 sec ago
Follow

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares skid as oil blasts past $100 after Iran strikes Gulf shipping

SYDNEY: Shares in Asia fell broadly on Thursday as oil prices roared 9 percent past $100 a barrel on reports of more ships struck in Gulf waters and terminal shutdowns — a jump that could rapidly stoke inflation and push global borrowing costs higher.

Investors took little comfort from the International Energy Agency’s plan to release 400 million barrels of oil from its reserves, the largest such move in its history. As part of that, the US said it would release 172 million barrels of oil from next week.

Brent crude futures jumped 9.2 percent to $100.37 a barrel, extending a rise of more than 4 percent overnight. US crude futures surged 8.1 percent to $94.26 a barrel.

Shares slid, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling 1.5 percent, while the Nikkei dropped 1.4 percent.

Chinese blue-chips lost 0.6 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index skidded 1.2 percent.

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures fell 0.9 percent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures were down 0.8 percent and DAX futures lost 1 percent.

Two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters had been struck by explosive-laden Iranian boats, Iraqi security officials said early on Thursday, while an Iraqi official told state media that its oil ports “have completely stopped operations.”

Bloomberg reported that Oman has evacuated all vessels from its key oil export terminal at Mina Al Fahal as a precautionary measure.

“The market remains very concerned in terms of what’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz, and basically, information that we are getting over the last 24 hours is not a good reading,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.

“It sort of reemphasizes the view that we should be worried about this and the risk is oil prices are going to get higher from here rather than coming down.”

Iran had earlier stepped up attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the number of ships struck in the region since fighting began to at least 16. Tehran has warned the world to get ready for oil at $200 a barrel.

Throwing more uncertainty into the air, US President Donald Trump on Wednesday declared the war on Iran has been won but he will stay in the fight to finish the job.

INFLATION RISKS

US data showed the consumer price index rose 0.3 percent in February, in line with forecasts and above January’s 0.2 percent increase. The report, however, was not regarded as particularly relevant given that the Iran war has started to fuel inflation.

In bond markets, the risk of rising inflation outweighed safe-haven considerations to shove yields higher globally. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose 3 basis points to 4.2374 percent on Thursday, having jumped 7 bps overnight.

Fed funds futures extended their slide as investors feared higher inflation would make it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Markets are just wagering one more rate cut from the Fed this year. 

The danger of energy-driven inflation has led markets to wager the next move in rates from the European Central Bank could be up, possibly as early as June. 

Nervous investors sought the liquidity of dollars while shunning currencies from countries that are net energy importers, including Japan and much of Europe.

The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.1539, after closing at the weakest level since November last year. The dollar inched up 0.1 percent to 159.12 yen, the strongest level since January when reported rate checks from the US Fed spooked yen bears.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar lost 0.4 percent to $0.7122, having hit a more than three-year high of $0.7188 on Wednesday as bets for an imminent rate hike from its central bank grew.