PARIS/HAMBURG: France could struggle to sell a much bigger wheat crop expected this year as export options for the European Union’s top wheat producer have narrowed due to less demand from Algeria and China as well as strong competition from cheaper Black Sea grain.

Sparse overseas demand could lead France to stock hefty amounts of wheat or offload more crop in livestock feed markets. Either outcome could keep prices below production costs, a trend that has fueled farmer protests in the past year.

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday projected French soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2025/26 at a relatively modest 7.5 million metric tons, contributing to a forecast 21-year high for end-of-season stocks.

Sales to Algeria and China, among France’s biggest wheat buyers in recent years, stalled last season due to a diplomatic fallout between Paris and Algiers and a general drop in Chinese imports amid hefty domestic supply.

A smaller than normal 2024 French crop meant steady demand from Morocco and West Africa, plus sporadic sales to Egypt and Thailand, absorbed last season’s surplus. But that may no longer be enough.

“The harsh reality is that France has a huge challenge to reach a 7.5 million ton export program,” Rory Deverell, owner of Black Silo Commodity Consulting, said.

A price rise in Russia amid tight availability in the world’s biggest wheat supplier may offer only brief respite, with Russian and other Black Sea region producers expected to sweep up near-term demand, as shown by this week’s 1 million ton purchase by Algeria.

“Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria are likely to dominate wheat exports in coming months,” a German trader said. “The west EU faces the threat of being only a niche wheat exporter.”

Like France, Germany and Poland may struggle too, with overall EU exports again set to be bolstered by Black Sea neighbors Romania and Bulgaria.

A rally in the euro against the dollar this year, a repercussion of US President Donald Trump’s policies, represents another export headwind.

Lower-priced feed markets may provide opportunities for western European wheat, especially if the harvest struggles to meet milling specifications, with traders reporting talk of some low protein levels plus the risk that this week’s rain might damage the quality of unharvested wheat.

That could mean exports to distant destinations in southeast Asia, or shipments within the EU, with the return of EU quotas on Ukrainian wheat reducing competition for feed wheat inside the bloc.

But traders say a bumper harvest in Spain will also curb demand from the traditionally major EU buyer, while wheat will face feed competition from maize as well. FranceAgriMer anticipates stable French intra-EU exports versus last season.

“It is hard to see where west EU wheat could be sold,” another German trader said.