RIYADH: As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow, 33-kilometer-wide stretch of water separating Oman and Iran carrying a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.

While this strategic waterway remains open for now, analysts have told Arab News any further escalation could put the vital shipping route at risk if Iran chooses to impose a blockade or attacks vessels.

A little over a week into the confrontation, which began on June 13 when Israel began striking Iran’s nuclear sites, scientists, military commanders and cities, daily exchanges of fire have killed hundreds.

Now, with threats of a maritime blockade looming should the US decide to join the conflict on Israel’s side, global energy markets are on edge. Any disruption could send prices skyrocketing, destabilize economies and trigger a new energy crisis.

“The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway; it is the artery of global energy. Any blockade would trigger a chain reaction the global economy is not prepared for,” Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman Al-Ansari told Arab News.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, 20 million barrels of oil — 20 percent of global consumption — pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, along with one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade, primarily from Qatar.

The oil lane is so vital because no real alternatives exist. Most Gulf oil cannot be rerouted without massive delays. It is the only deep-water route capable of handling the world’s largest crude tankers.

The EIA has estimated that 84 percent of its crude flows to Asia, with China, India, Japan and South Korea as top buyers.

In February last year, the Washington-based Center for Security Policy analyzed Iran’s escalating activity in the Strait of Hormuz and said 76 percent of the crude oil transiting the waterway was destined for Asian markets.

When geopolitical tensions spiked over the past week after Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel, Brent crude surged from $69 to $74 per barrel in a single day — even though no ships were blocked.

Jassem Ajaka, an economist and professor at the Lebanese University, said this shows just how sensitive markets are to the mere suggestion of instability.

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably lead to a rise in the price of a barrel of oil to over $100, meaning the price will increase by about $25 in a single jump — something the global economy is not accustomed to,” Ajaka told Arab News.

He added: “Oil is a strategic and vital commodity, and when its price rises, inflation will rise with it because it is involved in 95 percent of other goods. The extraction of raw materials, the manufacturing of food products and other items will see their prices increase.”

Al-Ansari noted that “with Iran and Israel already in direct confrontation, the risk of escalation in this critical corridor is dangerously real. Iran sees the strait as its ultimate pressure point. Shutting it down would ignite a global oil shock, push inflation higher, and send vulnerable economies into panic.”

Ajaka explained high oil prices would confront central banks worldwide with a dilemma over whether to lower or raise interest rates. He added insurance prices would rise, contributing to inflation, and that it would also cause disruptions in supply chains across several countries.

“In the case of Lebanon, for example, it would result in a complete electricity blackout, as the country relies entirely on fuel oil coming from Iraq,” he added.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, moved 5.5 million barrels per day through Hormuz last year. That is 38 percent of total crude flows in the strait, according to tanker tracking data produced by the London-based real-time insights delivery firm, Vortexa.

While the Kingdom has contingency pipelines, they are not a perfect solution. The East-West Pipeline, with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, can divert crude to the Red Sea, but it is already running near full capacity due to recent Houthi attacks on shipping. 

The UAE’s Fujairah Pipeline, with 1.8 million barrels per day capacity, is also heavily used, leaving little to spare.

Iran’s Goreh-Jask Pipeline, designed for 300,000 barrels per day, is barely operational, having handled just 70,000 barrels per day before shutting down in late 2024.

If the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, the EIA said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could only reroute about 2.6 million barrels per day — far less than the 20 million that normally passes through.

Given that the economies of most Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, rely heavily on oil exports, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would deal a severe blow to their economic stability, according to Ajaka. “The extent of the financial damage would hinge on how long the strait remains blocked, with prolonged disruptions likely triggering budget deficits across the region,” he said.

For energy-hungry Asian economies, a blockade would be catastrophic.

“This narrow stretch carries nearly a third of the world’s seaborne oil. Its closure would cripple global trade routes, choke energy supplies and slam the brakes on economic growth from Asia to Europe,” said Al-Ansari.

China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for nearly half its crude imports. India, Japan, and South Korea would face severe shortages, forcing emergency releases from strategic reserves. Global shipping costs would explode as tankers would need to take longer routes around Africa.

“The first Asian economy to be affected by any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be China,” said Ajaka. “If the repercussions of the strait’s closure spill over into multiple economies, it could lead to a global recession — posing another challenge in terms of how to revive the global economy.”

The US is less vulnerable, importing only half a million barrels per day from the Gulf, equivalent to 7 percent of total US imports. But it would still suffer from skyrocketing global prices.

Al-Ansari emphasized that the crisis is not merely about oil: “It is about the fragile balance that keeps markets stable and societies moving.”

Iran has historically threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but has never done so. In a recent op-ed for Arab News, Abdulaziz Sager, founder and chair of the Gulf Research Center, said a full closure “would harm Iran’s own economy given that it relies on the waterway for its oil exports.”

Despite Iran’s heavy reliance on the waterway, Behnam Saeedi, a member of the parliament’s National Security Committee presidium, was quoted by Mehr news agency on Thursday as saying a blockade remained on the table.

“Iran has numerous options to respond to its enemies and uses such options based on what the situation is,” he said. “Closing the Strait of Hormuz is one of the potential options for Iran.”

Mehr later quoted another lawmaker, Ali Yazdikhah, as saying Iran would continue to allow free shipping in the strait and in the Gulf so long as its vital national interests were not at risk.

“If the US officially and operationally enters the war in support of the Zionists (Israel), it is the legitimate right of Iran in view of pressuring the US and Western countries to disrupt their oil trade’s ease of transit,” said Yazdikhah.

However, it is not a decision Iran would take lightly.

“If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will undoubtedly lose economically and militarily,” said Ajaka. “Any country that wants to wage war will lose if it does not have foreign currency reserves, as war depletes these reserves — preventing it from making the decision to close the strait.

“The only circumstances that might lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz are if it feels its regime is on the verge of collapse,” he added.

As Iran already seems to have been backed into a corner, there is every chance it could take this final leap. As Al-Ansari said: “Iran is already economically crippled and is facing an existential reality. The scenario of closing the strait should never be ruled out.”

Past incidents have shown the global impact of regional events. In 2019, attacks on Saudi tankers near Fujairah and the Abqaiq drone strikes briefly cut 5 percent of the global oil supply. World powers, therefore, have a major interest in keeping the strait open.

“Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would prompt military intervention by the US and the UK,” said Ajaka.

On June 17, US officials informed The New York Times that Iran had positioned missiles and military assets for potential strikes on American bases in the Middle East if the US entered the conflict. 

Other officials also warned Iran could resort to mining the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an attack — a strategy designed to trap US warships in the Persian Gulf.

In the event of a blockade, Ajaka suggested Western and Asian nations would likely tap into strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate immediate shortages.

However, he added this would only provide temporary relief, as non-OPEC countries have already maxed out their production capacity, leaving OPEC members as the only potential source of additional supply.

“If the strait is closed and oil prices rise, oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, may resort to halting production cuts and instead increase output to curb the sharp rise in prices,” he said.

“One other possible measure would be for the US to ease restrictions on oil-producing countries like Venezuela to increase oil supply in the market.”

Nevertheless, Ajaka said: “The core position of oil — and the fundamental reason for the necessity of security in the Middle East — is that the Arabian Gulf must remain the ultimate guarantor.”