Russia’s economy minister says the country is on ‘the brink of recession’

Maxim Reshetnikov, minister of economic development of the Russian Federation, attends a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, on June 19, 2025. (Roscongress Foundation via AP)
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Updated 20 June 2025
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Russia’s economy minister says the country is on ‘the brink of recession’

  • Minister delivers warning at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum
  • Economy ministry also sees export losses due to trade wars at $9 billion

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia: Russia’s economy is “on the brink of going into a recession,” the country’s economy minister said Thursday, according to Russian media reports.
Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov delivered the warning at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the annual event in Russia’s second largest city designed to highlight the country’s economic prowess and court foreign investors.
Russian business news outlet RBC quoted the official as saying “the numbers indicate cooling, but all our numbers are (like) a rearview mirror. Judging by the way businesses currently feel and the indicators, we are already, it seems to me, on the brink of going into a recession.”
The economy, hit with a slew of sanctions after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, has so far outperformed predictions. High defense spending has propelled growth and kept unemployment low despite fueling inflation. At the same time, wages have gone up to keep pace with inflation, leaving many workers better off.
Large recruiting bonuses for military enlistees and death benefits for those killed in Ukraine also have put more income into the country’s poorer regions. But over the long term, inflation and a lack of foreign investments remain threats to the economy, leaving a question mark over how long the militarized economy can keep going.
Economists have warned of mounting pressure on the economy and the likelihood it would stagnate due to lack of investment in sectors other than the military.
Speaking at a forum session, Reshetnikov said Russia was “on the brink,” and whether the country would slide into a recession or not depends on the government’s actions.
“Going forward, it all depends on our decisions,” Reshetnikov said, according to RBC.
RBC reported Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Central Bank Gov. Elvira Nabiullina gave more optimistic assessments.
Siluanov spoke about the economy “cooling” but noted that after any cooling “the summer always comes,” RBC reported.
Nabiullina said Russia’s economy was merely “coming out of overheating,” according to RBC.

Export losses

On the issue of exports, Russia estimates potential losses due to global trade wars at $9 billion, but expects a gradual stabilization of flows and a possible expansion of supplies to China, Deputy Economy Minister Vladimir Ilyichev said.
President Trump has upended longstanding trade relations since returning to the White House, using erratic tariff threats and aggressive negotiating tactics in a bid to secure better deals from trading partners.
“Overall, we estimate the impact on Russia of this reorientation at $33 billion, of which about $9 billion is the potential loss of Russian exports in third-country markets,” said Ilyichev.


Pope Leo to visit Italy’s Lampedusa island in July

Updated 9 sec ago
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Pope Leo to visit Italy’s Lampedusa island in July

VATICAN CITY: Pope Leo XIV in July will visit the Italian island of Lampedusa, a landing point for migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa, the Vatican announced om Thursday.
The US pontiff has previously thanked the people of Lampedusa, which is just 145km off the coast of Tunisia, for the welcome they have given over the years to those who arrived, often on leaky, overcrowded boats.
Leo has also repeatedly spoken out against measures to clamp down on illegal migration. 
He called the US administration’s treatment of immigrants “inhuman.”
Leo will visit Lampedusa on July 4, as part of a program of visits within Italy this summer, which includes a trip to Pompeii on May 8, the anniversary of his election, the Vatican said.
On May 23, he will meet pilgrims in the so-called “Land of Fires” in Campania, a southern Italian region blighted by toxic waste dumped by the mafia.
Leo’s predecessor, Francis, chose Lampedusa for his first official visit after becoming pontiff in July 2013.
In a definitive speech of his papacy, Francis denounced what he called “the globalization of indifference,” and the defense of migrants became a cornerstone of his papacy.
Leo became the first US head of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics last May following Francis’s death.
In October, Leo said states had a right to protect their borders but a “moral obligation” to provide refuge.
“With the abuse of vulnerable migrants, we are witnessing, not the legitimate exercise of national sovereignty, but rather grave crimes committed or tolerated by the state,” he said, according to a speech published by the Vatican.
“Ever more inhuman measures are being adopted — even celebrated politically —that treat these ‘undesirables’ as if they were garbage and not human beings.”
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has taken a tough line on irregular migration, restricting the activities of charity rescue boats and seeking to speed up returns of people who fail to qualify for asylum.
Her ministers last week agreed on a new draft law that would allow the imposition of a “naval blockade” to stop migrant boats from entering Italian waters.
Almost 2,300 migrants have landed on Italy’s shores so far this year, compared to 5,600 in the same period in 2025 and 4,200 in the same period in 2024.
Yet many die trying to make the crossing, with at least 547 lives lost along Mediterranean routes so far this year, according to the UN’s International Organization for Migration.
Leo, who was born in Chicago and spent two decades as a missionary in Peru, has said he loves to travel. 
He spent many years on the road when he served two, six-year terms as the superior of his Augustinian religious order, which required him to visit Augustinian communities around the world.
Pope Leo himself has said he hopes to visit his beloved Peru, as well as Argentina and Uruguay, trips that could happen toward the end of the year.