KARACHI: Saudi Arabia is expected to be Pakistan’s largest source of external financing in the upcoming fiscal year with over $6 billion in support as the South Asian country seeks to raise more than $20 billion from international lenders to uplift its fragile economy, official budget documents released this week showed.

In the 2025–26 fiscal year starting July 1, Pakistan aims to secure $6.46 billion from Riyadh, including $5 billion in time deposits, $1 billion in oil on deferred payments, and $46.4 million in economic assistance, according to the budget documents.

The financial support is intended to help stabilize the country’s external account and meet its balance of payments needs.

Islamabad has long relied on financial support from its Gulf and Chinese partners to shore up its foreign reserves and avoid default. In 2023, these inflows played a key role in helping Pakistan avert a sovereign debt crisis.

“The support from Saudi Arabia in the form of deposits and oil facility is undoubtedly the major source of the external stability,” said Shankar Talreja, head of research at Karachi-based Topline Securities.

Pakistan’s government unveiled a Rs17.6 trillion ($62 billion) federal budget on June 10, aiming to consolidate what it describes as fragile macroeconomic stability achieved under a $7 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Notably, Pakistan has not earmarked a specific amount under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its external financing estimates for 2025-26. The country is currently operating under a 37-month IMF Extended Fund Facility approved last year.

In total, Pakistan has budgeted for Rs5.78 trillion ($20.4 billion) in foreign assistance in FY26, including both loans and grants from bilateral and multilateral partners, to help shore up reserves and finance its current account. The country’s total external receipts for the year are budgeted at Rs20.3 trillion ($71.9 billion).

China, Pakistan’s largest trading partner and longtime ally, is projected to be the second-biggest lender after Riyadh with $4.37 billion, including $4 billion in “safe deposits,” a form of central bank support, and $37 million in economic assistance.

“China is a major bilateral partner… supporting Pakistan with both commercial loans and time deposits,” said Talreja. “Both types are refinanced and renewed annually.”

Pakistan’s multilateral lenders include the Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank, Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and others such as the United Nations, OPEC Fund, and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

SMALLER LENDERS AND REMITTANCES

Besides Saudi Arabia and China, Pakistan will also seek smaller amounts of aid and financing from countries including the United States, France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, according to the budget documents, which also list smaller expected inflows from Kuwait ($21.4 million) and Oman ($5.14 million).

However, a long-delayed Saudi oil facility, initially expected last year, has yet to materialize. Media reports have suggested Riyadh has linked its final approval to progress on Saudi investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper and gold mining project.

State media reported in September that Saudi Arabia had offered a 15 percent equity stake in the multibillion-dollar Reko Diq mine in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province. The project, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold reserves, is operated by Canada’s Barrick Gold.

Islamabad also plans to raise $1.3 billion in commercial loans and $400 million through international bond issuances, though the finance ministry has not specified the sovereign guarantees or instruments.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has separately said the government aims to issue Panda bonds, yuan-denominated debt instruments issued in China, to raise around $200 million from Chinese investors to boost foreign exchange reserves.

In addition to official financing, Pakistan continues to benefit significantly from worker remittances, particularly from the Gulf region.

According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25, released this week, Saudi Arabia accounted for $7.4 billion in remittances in the last fiscal year, about 25 percent of the national total.

Remittances from all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain — totaled $16.1 billion, or more than half of Pakistan’s total remittance inflows in 2024.

“In the GCC region, expanding Saudi mega-projects led to higher migrant employment, further contributing to inflows,” the economic survey said.

“It’s not just deposits and oil facilities helping Pakistan,” added Talreja. “Remittances from Saudi Arabia alone are a quarter of Pakistan’s total remittances.”

“Saudi Arabia is a key nation for Pakistan in terms of foreign inflows, whether in the form of remittances or economic assistance,” Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Ltd. said.