WARSAW: The victory of nationalist Karol Nawrocki in Poland’s presidential election looks set to strain relations with Ukraine and embolden Donald Trump-inspired conservatives in central Europe, analysts and diplomats said on Monday.
Nawrocki won a knife-edge vote that pitted him against Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who was supported by the ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO), dealing a major blow to the pro-European government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
While remaining committed to helping Ukraine’s effort to fend off Russian’s invasion, Nawrocki opposes Kyiv joining Western alliances such as NATO.
Nawrocki rejects suggestions that his stance is pro-Russian. But his campaign, backed by the nationalist opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), tapped into a mix of weariness with Ukrainian refugees and worries Poland could be drawn into the war over the border that many Polish voters feel.
All parties in Poland have ruled out sending troops to Ukraine.
Although real executive power lies with the government, the Polish president has veto powers, meaning he can stymie the government’s agenda. The head of state can also propose laws.
Nawrocki signed a declaration saying he would not ratify Ukraine’s accession to NATO, as it could result in the alliance being drawn into a conflict with Russia, a move that was sharply criticized by Kyiv’s ambassador to Warsaw and which marked a departure from previous Polish policy under both PiS and KO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Nawrocki on Monday and said he looked forward to future “fruitful cooperation” with Poland.
But elsewhere in Ukraine, the mood was less positive.
“The choice of the Poles will most likely complicate the dialogue within the EU and our European integration,” Ukrainian lawmaker Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze was quoted as saying by Interfax-Ukraine.
A European diplomat based in Warsaw said that while policy on Ukraine’s future in the EU and NATO would continue to be set by Tusk’s government, Nawrocki could create “a shift in tone that’s not going to be helpful.”
In his role as head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, Nawrocki has been a harsh critic of what he said was Ukraine’s reluctance to exhume the remains of Polish victims killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War Two.
Euroskeptic politicians
Nawrocki’s campaign echoed the language of other euroskeptic politicians in central Europe, lambasting a perceived over-reach of Brussels into areas that they consider should be the domain of individual countries.
“Yes, we want a common market, we want development, we want to be a strong voice in the European Union, but we do not want our freedom in the entire scope of social life to be decided by the Brussels elites,” Nawrocki told a campaign rally in March.
The election of Tusk, a former European Council president, as prime minister in 2023 catapulted Poland back to the heart of European decision-making.
He succeeded in unblocking billions in EU funds that had been held back over rule-of-law concerns, even as critics said Warsaw had not actually implemented the necessary court reforms as a result of PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda’s veto.
“Of course it (the election result) will mean a lot to the prime minister of Poland, who now instead of being a very strong force in the EU will be more marginalized,” said a second European diplomat.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, himself facing a tough election battle in 2026, hailed Nawrocki’s “fantastic victory” on Monday.
“This is definitely emboldening for... all pro-Trumpist or pro-MAGA euroskeptics,” said Botond Feledy, a geopolitical analyst at Red Snow Consulting, adding that in Hungary it could add strength to Orban’s argument that protecting national identity is more important than EU money.
With the ‘co-habitation’ of a government and president from different political camps looking likely to continue at least until parliamentary elections in 2027, a third diplomat said that they hoped “they will not be spending more energy on fighting each other than they will... (on) Poland’s leadership in Europe.”
Stanley Bill, Professor of Polish Studies at the University of Cambridge said that Tusk’s pro-European government would set foreign policy, but that if Nawrocki uses “an even more aggressive rhetoric against the European Union than Duda has... that’s clearly going to create a greater impression of chaos.”
Poland’s new president poses challenge for EU, Ukraine ties
https://arab.news/r3697
Poland’s new president poses challenge for EU, Ukraine ties
- Karol Nawrocki opposes Ukraine’s NATO accession, criticized by Kyiv ambassador
- His euroskeptic stance echoes central European conservatives
Kosovo voters cast ballots in a second attempt this year to elect a government and avoid more crisis
Kosovo voters cast ballots in a second attempt this year to elect a government and avoid more crisis
- The prime minister’s party is again the favorite in the race, but it is unclear whether it will manage to muster a majority this time in the 120-member parliament
PRISTINA: Voters in Kosovo cast ballots on Sunday in an early parliamentary election in hopes of breaking a political deadlock that has gripped the small Balkan nation for much of this year.
The snap vote was scheduled after Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s governing Vetevendosje, or Self-Determination, party failed to form a government despite winning the most votes in a Feb. 9 election.
The deadlock marked the first time Kosovo could not form a government since it declared independence from Serbia in 2008 following a 1998-99 war that ended in a NATO intervention.
The prime minister’s party is again the favorite in the race, but it is unclear whether it will manage to muster a majority this time in the 120-member parliament, after other mainstream parties refused an alliance.
According to Kosovo’s election laws, 20 parliamentary seats are automatically assigned to ethnic Serb representatives and other minority parties.
Another inconclusive vote would further deepen the crisis. Kosovo has already not approved a budget for next year, sparking fears of possible negative effects on the already poor economy in the country of 2 million people.
Lawmakers are set to elect a new president in March as current President Vjosa Osmani’s mandate expires in early April. If this fails too, another snap election must be held.
The main opposition parties are the Democratic League of Kosovo and the Democratic Party of Kosovo. They have accused Kurti of authoritarianism and of alienating Kosovo’s US and European Union allies since he came to power in 2021.
A former political prisoner during Serbia’s rule in Kosovo, the 50-year-old Kurti has taken a tough stand in talks mediated by the European Union on normalizing relations with Belgrade. In response, the EU and the United States imposed punitive measures.
Kurti has promised to buy military equipment to boost security.
No reliable pre-election polls have been published. Kurti’s party at the previous election won around 42 percent of the votes while the two main rival parties had together around 40 percent.
Analysts say that even the slightest changes in numbers on Sunday could prove decisive for the future distribution of power but that nothing is certain.
Tensions with restive ethnic Serbs in the north exploded in clashes in 2023 when scores of NATO-led peacekeepers were injured. In a positive step, ethnic Serb mayors this month took power peacefully there after a municipal vote.
Kurti has also agreed to accept third-country migrants deported from the United States as part of tough anti-immigration measures by the administration of President Donald Trump. One migrant has arrived so far, authorities have told The Associated Press.
Kosovo is one of the six Western Balkan countries striving to eventually join the EU, but both Kosovo and Serbia have been told they must first normalize relations.
