KARACHI: Pakistan’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.5% in May, higher than the April 2025 reading of 0.3%, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation decreased by 0.2% in May 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.8% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.2% in May 2024. The CPI inflation average during 11MFY25 stood at 4.61%, compared to 24.52% in 11MFY24.
Inflation has cooled significantly, easing from 37.97% in May 2023.
The CPI reading is higher than the government’s expectations. In its monthly economic report released last week, the finance ministry expected inflation to ease to between 1.5% and 2% year-on-year in May, before picking up to 3%-4% in June.
“CPI inflation General, increased to 3.5% on year-on-year basis in May 2025 as compared to 0.3% of the previous month and 11.8% in May 2024,” the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said in its monthly report.
“On month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.2% in May 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.8% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.2% in May 2024.”
Food items, whose prices recorded an increase, included Eggs (24.38%), Chicken (8.63%), Condiments and Spices (5.50%), Sugar (4.07%), Gur (3.66%), Milk Powder (2.80%), Potatoes (1.64%), Butter (1.31%), Fresh Fruits (1.21%), Pulse Gram (1.09%), Beverages (0.87%), Meat (0.82%), Sweetmeat (0.79%) and Pulse Moong (0.53%).
Non-food items that witnessed an increase in rates were Cotton Cloth (3.20%), Motor Vehicles (1.86%), Postal Services (1.74%), Major Tools & Equipment (1.23%), Readymade Garments (1.02%), Tailoring (0.95%) and Cleaning & Laundry (0.65%).
The latest CPI reading was also higher than projections made by several brokerage houses.
JS Global projected Pakistan’s headline inflation to inch up to 2.7% in May.
“Pakistan’s CPI is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May. The base effect is now fading, signaling a return to normalized price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%,” JS Global had said in a report.
Last month, the State Bank of Pakistan cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 11%, the lowest policy rate since March 2022 (9.75%). The central bank has cut the rate by 1,100 bps since June from an all-time high of 22%.
