Pakistan army warns of decades-long ‘consequences’ if India blocks Indus waters

Spokesperson of the Pakistan Armed Forces, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry (right), speaks to Arab News Pakistan in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on May 16, 2025. (AN photo)
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Updated 19 May 2025
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Pakistan army warns of decades-long ‘consequences’ if India blocks Indus waters

  • Pakistani military says it is committed to US-brokered ceasefire after recent cross-border strikes
  • It warns of a high potential for renewed conflict if the core issue, Kashmir, remains unaddressed

RAWALPINDI, Pakistan: The Pakistani military warns that any Indian attempt to follow through on recent threats to cut Islamabad’s share of the Indus River water system would trigger consequences lasting for generations, as tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors are running high.

New Delhi unilaterally suspended a decades-old water-sharing agreement with Pakistan last month, as it blamed it for a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir — Islamabad denied any involvement.

The incident was followed by days of cross-border fire as India launched on May 6 a series of strikes across the Line of Control — the de facto border that separates the Indian-controlled and Pakistani-controlled parts of the disputed Kashmir territory. It also hit other sites on the Pakistani mainland, targeting what it claimed were militant positions.

Pakistan retaliated with strikes on Indian military targets before a US-brokered ceasefire took effect on May 10. Despite the ceasefire, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced this week that his country would stop the water from flowing — a move Pakistan has earlier said was a direct threat to its survival and an act of war.




A general view of the partially damaged Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project following Indian strikes in Nausari, about 40kms from Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 8, 2025. (AFP)

Brokered by the World Bank, the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty has withstood multiple Indian-Pakistani wars. If India weaponizes water and blocks the flow of an Indus River tributary — vital to Pakistan’s food security — its military says it will act.

“I hope that time doesn’t come, but it will be such actions that the world will see and the consequences of that we will fight for years and decades to come. Nobody dares stop water from Pakistan,” Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, spokesperson of the Pakistan Armed Forces, told Arab News on Friday.

“It is some madman who can think that he can stop water of 240 million plus people of this country.”

India’s recent attacks have killed 40 civilians, including 22 women and children, according to Pakistan’s official figures. As Pakistan retaliated, it hit 26 Indian military targets. It stopped the retaliatory strikes as soon as the ceasefire was reached.

“Pakistan armed forces are a professional armed forces and we adhere to the commitments that we make, and we follow in letter and spirit the instructions of the political government and the commitments that they hold,” Chaudhry said.

“As far as Pakistan army is concerned, this ceasefire will hold easily and there have been confidence building measures in communication between both the sides.”

Both countries have already blamed each other for violating the ceasefire multiple times since it took effect.

“If any violation occurs, our response is always there ... but it is only directed at those posts and those positions from where the violations of the ceasefire happen. We never target the civilians. We never target any civil infrastructure,” Chaudhry said.

According to the Pakistani military, India has lost six airplanes and an S-400 air defense system — Russia’s most advanced surface to air missile system — in the four-day conflict. Among the downed warplanes were several French aircraft Rafale.

Earlier reports suggested India had lost five fighter jets, but Pakistan’s prime minister announced earlier this week that there were six.

“I can confirm that the sixth aircraft is a Mirage 2000,” Chaudhry said. “We only targeted the aircraft ... We could have taken out more, but we showed restraint.”

Satellite photos captured after India’s strikes on May 6, show significant damage to multiple Pakistani air bases. High-resolution images from Maxar Technologies show large craters on runways and destruction of hangars and support structures at these facilities.




(COMBO, L-R) The combinations of handout satellite images courtesy of Maxar Technologies created on May 12, 2025, shows ​​​​​​(top) a structure at Bholari Air Base in northern Thatta District on April 27, 2025, Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi on April 25, 2025, and Pakistan Air Force base Mushaf in Sargodha April 30, 2025, and (bottom) damaged buildings and runway on May 10-11, 2025. (AFP/ Satellite Image ©2025 Maxar Technologies)

Chaudhry said that despite damage to infrastructure, they remained active: “There are ways through which Pakistan Air Force immediately sets these bases operational — they are all operational.”

He warned of a high potential for renewed conflict despite the ceasefire, as long as the core issue, Kashmir, remains unaddressed.

Predominantly Muslim, Kashmiri territory has been the subject of international dispute since the 1947 partition of the Indian subcontinent into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. Both countries claim Kashmir in full, and rule in part.

Indian-administered Kashmir has for decades witnessed outbreaks of separatist insurgency to resist control from the government in New Delhi.

In 2019, the Indian government revoked the region’s constitutional semi-autonomy and downgraded it from a state to a union territory under New Delhi’s direct control.

Indian officials have repeatedly said that the move aimed at tackling separatism and bringing economic development and peace to Kashmir.

“Their policy on Kashmir — of oppression and trying to internalize it — is not working,” Chaudhry said.

“Till the time Indians don’t sit and talk about Kashmir, then (as) two countries we sit, and we find a solution to it, the conflict potential is there.”


Pakistan closes pedestrian traffic at key Iran border crossings as Israel strikes escalate

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Pakistan closes pedestrian traffic at key Iran border crossings as Israel strikes escalate

  • The closures affect the Taftan crossing in Chaghi district and the Gabd-Rimdan crossing in Gwadar district
  • Both are key routes for cross-border movement and local trade in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province

QUETTA: Pakistani authorities have closed two major border crossings with Iran for pedestrian traffic amid escalating cross-border strikes between Iran and Israel, officials in the southwestern Balochistan province said on Sunday.

The closures affect the Taftan crossing in Chaghi district and the Gabd-Rimdan crossing in Gwadar district, both key routes for cross-border movement and local trade between Balochistan and Iran. 

The Gabd-Rimdan border crossing is a point on the Iran-Pakistan border, specifically at “BP-250,” the second crossing along the 900-kilometer border between the two countries. The crossing facilitates trade and people-to-people contact between Iran and Pakistan.

“All kinds of pedestrian movement at the Gabd-Rimdan-250 border have been suspended due to the Iran-Israel conflict,” Jawad Ahmed Zehri, assistant commissioner for Gwadar, told Arab News.

Trade activity at the crossing would remain open and Pakistani citizens stranded in Iran would be allowed to return, he said, but no new entries into Iran would be permitted through this point until further notice.

In a separate order, authorities also closed the Taftan border crossing in Chaghi district for pedestrian traffic.

“We have closed pedestrian movements at the Taftan border until further notice,” said Naveed Ahmed, assistant commissioner for Taftan, adding that trade and customs operations from the crossing were continuing as usual.

The closures are expected to affect daily wage laborers, small-scale traders and local residents who depend on frequent cross-border movement for commerce, supplies and family visits.

Small items such as fruit, vegetables and household goods are commonly traded by hand or in small vehicles along these routes.

The closures come amid heightened tensions following Israeli strikes on Iranian cities since Friday with scores killed, including senior Iranian military commanders.

The bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and Iran reached $2.8 billion in the last fiscal year, which ended in June. Both countries have signed a memorandum of understanding with the aim of increasing this volume to $10 billion.

Iran also supplies about 100 megawatts of electricity to border towns in Balochistan.


Trump says can broker Iran‑Israel peace using trade as he did with India‑Pakistan

Updated 15 June 2025
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Trump says can broker Iran‑Israel peace using trade as he did with India‑Pakistan

  • Trump’s reference to India and Pakistan pertains to military confrontation which ended with US-facilitated ceasefire on May 10
  • Iranian officials report at least 138 people have been killed in Israel’s military onslaught since Friday, including 60 on Saturday

ISLAMABAD: US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he could use American trade leverage to broker a peace deal between Iran and Israel, drawing a parallel to his administration’s role in facilitating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan last month.

The renewed conflict saw Iran and Israel exchanging missile and drone strikes over the past three days.

Iranian officials report at least 138 people have been killed in Israel’s onslaught since Friday, including 60 on Saturday, half of them children, when a missile brought down a 14-story apartment block in Tehran. Israel has reported at least 13 deaths.

“Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “In that case by using TRADE with the United States to bring reason, cohesion, and sanity into the talks with two excellent leaders who were able to quickly make a decision and STOP!”

Trump’s reference to India and Pakistan pertains to a brief military confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbors in May, which ended with a US-facilitated ceasefire on May 10. Washington said trade and security assurances were key to the de-escalation.

He also cited other conflicts, between Serbia and Kosovo, and disputes over the Nile dam involving Egypt and Ethiopia, saying his interventions helped maintain peace “at least for now.”

“Likewise, we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran!” Trump added. “Many calls and meetings now taking place.”

Since Friday, Pakistan’s government has repeatedly pledged solidarity with Iran but urged its citizens to postpone travel to Iran and Iraq until the security situation improves. 

On Saturday, Islamabad issued a formal travel advisory asking Pakistanis to avoid travel to Iran “for a limited period” due to the Israeli attacks.

Pakistan has also condemned the Israeli strikes, calling them an unjustified violation of Iranian sovereignty, and has urged the international community to help de-escalate tensions through dialogue.


Two police officers killed, two wounded in ambush in Pakistan’s Balochistan province

Updated 15 June 2025
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Two police officers killed, two wounded in ambush in Pakistan’s Balochistan province

  • Attack, claimed by BRA separatists, took place late on Saturday in Sui, mountain town about 50km from Dera Bugti city
  • Police were ambushed after had rushed to the area in two vehicles to respond to reports of a grenade explosion

QUETTA: Two police officers were killed and two others injured when gunmen ambushed a police patrol in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province, officials said on Sunday. 

The attack took place late on Saturday in Sui, a mountainous town about 50km from Dera Bugti city where police had rushed to respond to reports of a grenade explosion.

Jalab Khan, station house officer at Sui Police, said officers were traveling in two vehicles when they were ambushed.

“Nearly a dozen armed men were hiding behind a large rock and attacked our vehicles with heavy gunfire, hand grenades and rocket-propelled grenades,” Khan told Arab News.

“Two policemen were killed on the spot and two sustained bullet wounds,” he said, adding that the attackers fled under the cover of darkness.

The Baloch Republican Army (BRA), an ethnic Baloch separatist group, claimed responsibility for the attack. The BRA has been involved in multiple attacks on security forces and gas infrastructure in Dera Bugti, one of Pakistan’s key natural gas-producing districts.

The group emerged after the killing of veteran Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti during a military operation in 2006.

Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan and Iran, is a mineral-rich region that is home to Beijing’s investment in the Gwadar deep water port and other projects. It is Pakistan’s largest province by size but smallest by population and the most impoverished. It has long been the site of a separatist insurgency by groups like the BRA, who are fighting for independence.

Pakistan accuses neighboring India and Afghanistan of supporting Baloch separatist militants, a claim they deny. Islamabad also says neighboring Iran does not do enough against militants operating on their shared border. 

“The slain policemen were local residents of Dera Bugti and their bodies have been handed over to families for burial,” said Atta Tareen, the district police officer for Dera Bugti.

A first information police report hasd been registered and Balochistan’s Counter Terrorism Department was leading the investigation, Tareen added.


Bitcoin pioneer Michael Saylor holds ‘landmark’ talks with Pakistan Crypto Council officials

Updated 15 June 2025
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Bitcoin pioneer Michael Saylor holds ‘landmark’ talks with Pakistan Crypto Council officials

  • Pakistan set up PCC in March to create legal framework for cryptocurrency trading in bid to lure international investment
  • Michael Saylor, bitcoin advocate and billionaire US business executive, speaks to Pakistani ministers for finance, crypto

KARACHI: Pakistani officials held a “landmark discussion” this week with Michael Saylor, bitcoin advocate and billionaire US business executive, on using digital currencies to strengthen Pakistan’s financial resilience and its digital economy, according to a statement released on Sunday. 

Pakistan set up the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) in March to create a legal framework for cryptocurrency trading in a bid to lure international investment. In April, Pakistan introduced its first-ever policy framework to set rules for how digital money like cryptocurrencies and the companies that deal in it should operate in Pakistan. The policy has been formulated to align with compliance and financial integrity guidelines of the global Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Last month, the government approved setting up the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA), a specialized regulatory body to oversee blockchain-based financial infrastructure, and separately also unveiled the country’s first government-led strategic bitcoin reserve at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas.

Talks this week between Saylor and Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and Minister of State for Crypto and Blockchain Bilal Bin Saqib focused on how bitcoin could be used as part of sovereign reserves and monetary policy.

“Pakistan aspires to lead the Global South in the development and adoption of digital assets, setting a benchmark for innovation, regulation, and inclusive growth in the digital economy,” Finance Minister Aurangzeb, who is the chairman of the PCC, was quoted as saying in a statement released by Saqib’s office.

Saylor, one of the world’s most prominent corporate bitcoin investors, welcomed Pakistan’s move to explore digital assets, the statement added.

“Pakistan has many brilliant people. It also has commitment and clarity needed by businesses globally … Bitcoin is the strongest asset for long-term national resilience,” Saylor said during the meeting, according to the statement, adding that emerging markets like Pakistan could benefit from early adoption of blockchain finance.

Saylor also reportedly praised Pakistan’s efforts to take a “forward-looking, innovation-friendly stance” in the global digital economy and welcomed the opportunity to advise and support ongoing developments in the country related to digital assets. 

Saylor’s company, Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, is the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, reportedly holding about 582,000 BTC valued at over $62 billion as of June 2025. The company’s market capitalization has risen from $1.2 billion to over $105 billion since it adopted bitcoin as a core asset in 2020.


Pakistan forms committee to tackle possible economic fallout of Israel-Iran conflict — adviser

Updated 15 June 2025
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Pakistan forms committee to tackle possible economic fallout of Israel-Iran conflict — adviser

  • Oil prices jump 7 percent on fears of disrupted Middle East exports
  • Analysts warn of economic and security risks for Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has formed a high-level committee led by the finance minister to monitor any possible economic impact of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a senior government adviser said on Sunday, as rising oil prices threaten to add new pressure on the South Asian nation’s fragile economy.

Oil prices have climbed about 7 percent since Friday, with Brent crude closing at $74.23 a barrel after hitting a session high of $78.50, amid fears of supply disruptions if Middle East tensions escalate further.

“The prime minister has constituted a committee under the supervision of the finance minister, which will monitor the situation,” Khurram Schehzad, an adviser at the finance ministry, told Arab News.

“The committee will assess the impact of the changes and volatility in oil prices on fiscal and external sides, and devise a strategy to pacify the impacts on Pakistan’s economy.”

Pakistan relies heavily on imported oil, and any sustained spike in prices could widen its current account deficit and push inflation higher at a time when the country is struggling with low foreign reserves and slow growth.

Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other overnight into Sunday, killing scores. The conflict started on Friday when Israel launched a massive wave of attacks targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities but also hitting residential areas, sparking retaliation and fears of a broader regional conflict.

A 909 kilometer (565 mile) long international boundary separates Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province from Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province. 

“Israel-Iran conflict presents complex challenges for Pakistan as rising oil prices may increase import costs and inflation, influencing monetary policy and growth, while disruptions to key routes like the Strait of Hormuz can affect energy supplies and critical projects,” said Khaqan Najeeb, an economist and former finance ministry adviser.

“It can potentially affect consumer purchasing power and production costs ... Possible disruptions to shipping routes and higher freight charges might result in delays to imports and exports, thereby exerting additional pressure on Pakistan’s external sector.”

DIPLOMATIC BALANCING

As the crisis deepens, analysts widely believe Islamabad should maintain “careful diplomatic balancing” between its ties with Iran and its other partners in the Gulf, as well as the United States.

“Diplomatically, Pakistan has to navigate a balanced and principled stance, honoring its historic ties with Iran alongside its strategic relationships with the US and Gulf partners, emphasizing dialogue and regional stability.”

Former Defense Secretary Lt Gen (retired) Naeem Lodhi said Israel was unlikely to target Pakistan directly but an expanding conflict could complicate matters for Islamabad, adding that it should remain vigilant but avoid “deeper” involvement.

“If the war expands to include more Middle Eastern countries, some of which are friendly to Pakistan, then it would be a difficult proposition for Islamabad... whose side it takes,” Lodhi added. 

Former Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry said Pakistan would respond “forcefully” if directly targeted.

“Israel knows that Pakistan has the capacity to hit back hard,” Chaudhry said, referring to a May 2025 military confrontation with India in which Islamabad retaliated to New Delhi’s strikes, taking down fighter jets and hitting airfields, air bases and other military facilities.

Pakistan’s former ambassador to Iran, Asif Durrani, warned that the crisis could spill over if not contained.

“Not only Pakistan, but the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region can be engulfed if the ongoing spat between Israel and Iran turns into an all-out war,” Durrani said.

However, he said the likelihood of a refugee crisis was limited unless the conflict escalated into a ground invasion.

“A refugee influx is possible if it becomes a full-fledged war, but Israel or the United States are unlikely to commit boots on the ground in Iran,” Durrani added. 

Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute think tank, said Pakistani security forces should increase patrols and surveillance in border districts as the conflict could impact militant groups operating along the Iran-Pakistan border region, such as Baloch separatists and other sectarian outfits.

“Whenever such a situation arises, separatist and sectarian outfits often try to take advantage of it, either by increasing their activities or by shifting them from their hideouts inside Iranian territories,” he said. 

“Their movement is likely to intensify if the threat reaches the border region.”