Latest Pakistan-India conflict cost both nations $1 billion an hour combined — economist

Security personnel stand guard near the Karachi Port in Karachi on May 9, 2025, amid the ongoing border tensions between India and Pakistan after the Kashmir tourist attack. (AFP)
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Updated 14 May 2025
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Latest Pakistan-India conflict cost both nations $1 billion an hour combined — economist

  • Estimated daily losses amounted to around $20 billion per day, with Pakistan losing up to $4 billion and India as much as $16 billion a day
  • 30-day conflict would cost the countries around $500 billion combined, with over a $400 billion loss for Indian economy, economists estimate 

ISLAMABAD: A four-day military standoff between arch foes Pakistan and India last week cost both nations an estimated $1 billion an hour combined, a leading economist said this week, as a finance adviser to the government argued the conflict would have “minimal fiscal impact” for Islamabad.

Tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan escalated after a deadly April 22 attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan, which denied involvement. On the night of May 6/7, India struck multiple sites in Pakistan that it said was “terrorist infrastructure” and Pakistan retaliated, downing five Indian fighter jets. 

Over the next four days, the two nuclear-armed rivals engaged in the worst fighting between them since 1999, pounding each other with fighter aircraft, missiles, drones and artillery fire, until a ceasefire was brokered by the US and other nations on Saturday. 

The military confrontation had in the meantime disrupted stock markets, led to airspace closures, escalated defense spending and caused economic losses amounting to billions of dollars.

Asked about the economic cost of the conflict, Farrukh Saleem, a prominent Pakistani political scientist and economist, said he estimated the 87-hour confrontation cost “about a billion dollars an hour for both countries put together,” breaking it down into estimated costs borne by either of the neighbors.

“India has a much larger army, much larger air force. Once it starts moving, once it starts mobilizing its troops, it costs about, let’s say, 12 to 20 times more for the Indian army to mobilize itself as compared to the Pakistani army,” Saleem said.

“So, when I say a billion dollars an hour, you’re probably looking at 20 percent of that being incurred by Pakistan and a good 80-85 percent by India.”




Farrukh Saleem, a Pakistani political scientist and economist, talks to Arab News in Islamabad, Pakistan, on May 13, 2025. (AN photo)

The investment in war was also different, Saleem said, comparing India’s French Rafale fighter jets to Pakistan’s Chinese J-17 Thunders and J-10cs. 

“You look at Rafale, for instance, which is the French aircraft, with its paraphernalia, it’s about $240 million apiece. India has a $16 billion investment into Rafales,” Saleem explained. 

“On the other hand, Pakistan Air Force has gone for cheaper platforms. They are either JF-17 Thunders or J-10Cs and they’re like $20-25 million.”

In terms of missiles, the Indian ballistic missile BrahMos is $3 million apiece. 

“If you’re firing, let’s say, 8 to 10 [missiles] a day, that’s 10 times $3 million, that’s $30 million in one day,” the economist said. 

Arab News reached out to the defense ministry and Pakistan’s military media wing for official estimates of the latest conflict’s cost but did not receive a response. 

But Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to the Pakistani finance minister, said the fiscal impact on Pakistan would not be large.

“The current standoff with India won’t have a large fiscal impact on Pakistan,” he told Arab News. “It can be managed within the current fiscal space, with no need for a new economic assessment.”

Schehzad said Pakistan’s economic resilience was evident from a new record at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, which on Monday posted the highest single-day gain in over 26 years, surging by 10,123 points or 9.45 percent, significantly surpassing the losses recorded last week following the Indian strikes.

“Pakistan’s measured and responsible response, in both its narrative and actions on the ground, has caught investors’ eye, alongside the potential positive spillover effect of a possible settlement in the US-China tariff issue,” he added.

But economists say the recent military standoff has already inflicted heavy financial losses on both countries.

Saleem said daily economic losses from the conflict, including stock market declines and other impacts, amounted to around $20 billion per day, with Pakistan losing up to $4 billion and India as much as $16 billion a day.

“I have tried to put things together. If this conflict had continued for 30 days, my estimate is that both countries would have lost a good $500 billion, with over a $400 billion loss for the Indian economy,” he said.

Dr. Ali Salman, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), an Islamabad-based independent economic policy think tank, said the conflict had disrupted economic sentiment and affected investor confidence.

“Certainly, investors would not like to come into countries, whether India or Pakistan, if they are in a constant war-like situation,” he told Arab News.

He also warned that a prolonged conflict would push people in both countries deeper into poverty, noting that one in four poor people in the world lived in India or Pakistan.

“We have 27 percent of the world’s poor in just these two countries, and I believe that we need to come out of the military contest and go into an economic contest,” he added.

Another economist, Shakeel Ramay, said every war had an economic dimension and this conflict too had imposed a heavy financial burden on both economies.

“Pakistan’s military expenditure over the four-day conflict, including jets, artillery and missiles, amounted to around $1.5 billion from the national budget, by my estimate,” he said, a significant cost as the country walked a tricky path to economic recovery bolstered by an $7 billion IMF bailout.

“The good thing is our economic activities continued without interruption, retail markets operated smoothly with no shortages and trade routes remained open, all indicating that the direct economic cost was minimal,” Ramay added. 


Pakistani province offers to help build cancer hospital in Afghanistan

Updated 12 July 2025
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Pakistani province offers to help build cancer hospital in Afghanistan

  • Ali Amin Gandapur tells Afghan envoy his administration is ready to support the welfare of the Afghan people
  • KP chief minister says he wants to send a delegation to the neighboring state to ‘promote trust and harmony’

ISLAMABAD: The provincial administration of Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on Saturday offered assistance to build a cancer hospital in neighboring Afghanistan during a meeting between Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Afghan envoy to Pakistan, Sardar Ahmad Shakib.

KP shares a long and porous border with Afghanistan and maintains strong cultural and linguistic ties with Pashtun populations across the frontier.

The province has also experienced a major surge in militant violence in recent months, with Pakistani officials frequently accusing armed groups based in Afghanistan of orchestrating cross-border attacks, a claim the Taliban government in Kabul denies.

“Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur held an important meeting with Afghanistan’s Ambassador Sardar Ahmad Shakib, during which bilateral relations, mutual cooperation and regional stability were discussed in detail,” the KP administration said in a statement.

“Gandapur offered assistance in establishing a cancer hospital in Afghanistan and assured full support in the agricultural sector [to Kabul] as well,” it added. “He expressed his commitment that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government is ready to play every possible role in the welfare of the Afghan people.”

Ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan became strained in 2023 when Islamabad launched a major crackdown on undocumented migrants, most of them Afghans, citing security concerns.

While Pakistan’s federal administration and military adopted a tough posture toward Kabul, it was widely reported in the local media that the KP government wanted diplomatic engagement with Afghan Taliban, signaling an interest in negotiated cooperation.

The two sides have recently sought to reset relations and agreed to appoint ambassadors following a China-facilitated tripartite meeting this year.

Saturday’s discussion also emphasized the deep cultural and ethnic links between the two countries, with both sides agreeing that these bonds should be strengthened through mutual respect and cooperation.

The statement said Gandapur plans to send a special delegation to Afghanistan “to serve as a bridge between the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan and to promote trust and harmony.”

Ambassador Shakib expressed appreciation for the KP government’s support for Afghan refugees and reaffirmed his commitment to enhancing bilateral ties through peaceful and people-centric initiatives.


Pakistan’s climate minister orders action over black bear killing in northern region

Updated 12 July 2025
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Pakistan’s climate minister orders action over black bear killing in northern region

  • Video of the incident shows men pushing an unconscious bear down a rocky slope
  • Dr. Musadik Malik calls such acts of violence against wildlife ‘utterly unacceptable’

ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Climate Change Dr. Musadik Malik on Saturday ordered strict action against a group of people who killed a black bear in the northern region of Gilgit-Baltistan, according to an official statement, saying such brutality cannot be overlooked under any circumstances.

A video of the incident circulating on social media shows three individuals pushing the unconscious bear down a rocky mountainside. Authorities have already lodged a police complaint and are working with the local community to ensure the accused are brought to justice.

“Such acts of violence against wildlife are utterly unacceptable and will not be allowed to continue under any circumstances,” an official statement quoted Malik as saying.

This screengrab from a viral video shows a Himalayan black bear being thrown off a cliff after reportedly being tortured and killed in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. (APP/Screengrab)

It added he had “directed the Wildlife Management Boards to take strict and immediate action against those responsible.”

The minister also stressed his commitment to protecting Pakistan’s wildlife and enforcing conservation laws across all regions, adding that community engagement was critical to prevent such incidents.

Acts of animal cruelty are not rare in Pakistan. In June 2024, a landlord in Sanghar district, Sindh, ordered the brutal amputation of a camel’s leg for straying into his fields. Days later, another mutilated camel was found dead in the region with its legs amputated.

Animal rights activists have also condemned practices like bear dancing, where the animals are trained by being forced to stand on hot metal plates, and bear baiting, a blood sport in which the chained bear is attacked by dogs for public spectacle.

Though officially banned, both practices have been reported in parts of the country over the years.


Pakistan PM defends tough structural reforms, says country can’t afford ‘business as usual’

Updated 12 July 2025
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Pakistan PM defends tough structural reforms, says country can’t afford ‘business as usual’

  • Shehbaz Sharif describes Pakistan’s economic stabilization efforts as ‘a long and thorny journey’
  • He says merit is central to his governance model as his administration works to fix the economy

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Saturday strongly defended his government’s structural reform agenda, particularly in tax administration, saying that difficult and often unpopular decisions were necessary to rebuild national institutions, as the country could no longer afford “business as usual.”

Speaking at an orientation session for participants of the Uraan Pakistan youth program, Sharif recalled the fragile economic conditions he inherited after assuming power following last year’s general elections.

He noted that Pakistan had narrowly avoided a sovereign default in mid-2023, when inflation surged to nearly 38 percent, before securing a critical bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The prime minister said his administration took on the “onerous task” of stabilizing the economy under immense pressure, choosing to pursue long-delayed reforms rather than temporary fixes.

“Pakistan had to undertake these long-overdue, deep structural changes if we had to find our lost place in the comity of nations through hard and untiring efforts,” he said.

Sharif pointed to a set of key reforms aligned with IMF recommendations, including the digitization of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).

He noted the transition from paper-based tax systems to digital and AI-led processes was already bearing fruit.

“Faceless interactions — these terminologies were unknown in FBR,” he said, adding that one previously underperforming sector saw its tax contribution rise from Rs12 billion to over Rs50 billion within a year due to improved enforcement.

The prime minister said his administration had prioritized accountability, removing senior FBR officials accused of corruption and resisting political pressure in doing so.

“It’s a long and thorny journey,” he continued. “We are facing bumps on the way and mountain-like impediments. But I can assure you, we will not shy away from discharging our responsibility.”

Sharif maintained that merit would remain the cornerstone of his governance model.

“Delivery is the name of the game,” he said. “Performance is the name of the game.”


Pakistan won’t send hockey teams to India — official sources

Updated 12 July 2025
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Pakistan won’t send hockey teams to India — official sources

  • The two nuclear-armed states had a four-day military standoff in May that left 70 people dead
  • Pakistan’s refusal to participate in the Asia Cup can cost the team a place in next year’s World Cup

KARACHI: Pakistan will not travel to India for upcoming hockey tournaments over “security” concerns, government sources told AFP on Saturday, potentially jeopardizing their place in next year’s World Cup.

The nuclear-armed neighbors traded the worst violence in decades during a four-day conflict in May that killed 70 people.

Pakistan was due to participate in the Men’s Asia Cup for field hockey to be hosted by India in August and September, for which the federation had sought the government’s clearance.

“After the recent war the security and safety of our hockey players will be at risk,” said a sports ministry source, who asked not to be identified.

Pakistan will also not participate in the Junior World Cup in India in November, the source said.

Once a force in international hockey, with three Olympic gold medals and four world titles, Pakistan has slumped to 15th in the rankings.

Not featuring in the Asia Cup will likely cost Pakistan a place in next year’s senior World Cup to be held in the Netherlands and Belgium.

A second government source also confirmed the decision to AFP.

Pakistan’s foreign office has not responded to AFP’s request for comment.

India stalled all bilateral sporting ties with Pakistan in the wake of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, which it blamed on militants based across the border.

Cricket has been the most affected sport, with the two countries only meeting each other in multinational events abroad.

India refused to visit Pakistan this year when it hosted the Champions Trophy, forcing the final to be staged on neutral ground in Dubai.

In a tit-for-tat move, Pakistan will also not send its women’s cricket team to India for the 50-over World Cup later this year and the T20 World Cup in 2026.

They agreed instead to play their matches in Sri Lanka.

Pakistan’s hockey team last toured India for the 2023 Asian Champions Trophy, finishing fifth among six teams.


Pakistan seeks closer security ties with Bahrain to curb drugs, human smuggling

Updated 12 July 2025
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Pakistan seeks closer security ties with Bahrain to curb drugs, human smuggling

  • Both countries share a longstanding partnership spanning diplomacy, security and people-to-people ties
  • Mohsin Naqvi emphasizes enhanced cooperation in counterterrorism during his visit to the Gulf country

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi on Saturday called for deeper cooperation with Bahrain to combat narcotics trafficking and human smuggling, as both countries reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral security ties during his official visit to the Gulf state.

Pakistan and Bahrain share a longstanding relationship encompassing diplomacy, security, economic exchange and people-to-people links. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1971, the two nations have developed close political and military cooperation, including defense training, joint security initiatives and regular high-level engagements.

In recent years, with rising concerns over drug trafficking and human smuggling, both countries have intensified efforts to coordinate through formal channels to facilitate intelligence sharing and law enforcement collaboration.

“Enhanced cooperation between the interior ministries of Pakistan and Bahrain to counter narcotics and human smuggling is the need of the hour,” Naqvi said, according to an official statement issued after his meeting with his Bahraini counterpart, General Shaikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa.

The ministers discussed issues of mutual interest and emphasized the importance of strengthening bilateral cooperation in counterterrorism.

The discussion also emphasized the need to enhance the effectiveness of the Pakistan–Bahrain Joint Security Committee, a formal mechanism for coordinating on counterterrorism and related issues, while exploring ways to jointly address broader regional and global security challenges.

Bahrain’s interior minister welcomed the visit as an opportunity to deepen existing ties, describing the security cooperation and coordination between the two countries as “valued and constructive.”

He also expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s continued engagement across a range of sectors, with particular emphasis on security.