Pakistan’s average inflation to remain between 5.5-7.5% during FY25— central bank

A labour carries water bottles on a hand cart past the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) building as index plummeted amid a global market crash, in Karachi on April 7, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 29 April 2025
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Pakistan’s average inflation to remain between 5.5-7.5% during FY25— central bank

  • Pakistan’s real GDP growth rate expected to hover between 2.5-3.5%, says State Bank of Pakistan 
  • Central bank says “strong momentum” in remittances, exports to continue outpacing increase in imports 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s average inflation is expected to remain in the 5.5-7.5% range in the fiscal year ending June 2025, the country’s central bank said in its half-yearly economic report this week, stating that its real GDP growth is expected to hover between 2.5-3.5%.

Pakistan’s economy has improved in recent months, supported by declining inflation, which caused the central bank to reduce its policy rate to 12% after a series of cuts totaling 1,000 basis points since June 2024.

In a report titled “The State of Pakistan’s Economy, Half Year Report FY25” released on Monday, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) noted that inflationary pressures have receded notably, with headline inflation reaching a multi-decade low of 0.7% by March 2025.

“In view of steeper-than-anticipated disinflation, combined with an adequately tight monetary policy stance, continued fiscal consolidation and an ease in global commodity prices, the SBP projects average inflation for FY25 to fall in the range of 5.5–7.5 percent,” the SBP said in a press release.

Pakistan’s inflation rate rose to a record high of 38% in May 2023 on account of surging food and fuel costs. This was caused by Islamabad’s move to withdraw energy and fuel subsidies under a deal agreed with the International Monetary Fund in exchange for a financial bailout package.

The report said Pakistan’s current account balance is projected to remain in the range of -0.5 to 0.5 percent of the GDP. The central bank said it expects a “strong momentum” in foreign remittances and exports to continue outpacing the increase in imports. 

“This is expected to cushion against lower financial inflows and help strengthen external buffers,” the report said. “The SBP’s projection for real GDP growth remains unchanged in the range of 2.5–3.5 percent.”

The report highlighted downside risks in the form of additional fiscal consolidation and less-than-expected wheat harvests. It pointed out risks to the medium-term outlook, largely stemming from global trade disruptions and related commodity price volatility in light of Washington’s tariffs, changing geo-political situations, adjustments in administered energy prices and spillover of movements in international currencies on the local currency. 


Islamabad dismisses claims about paying up to 8 percent interest on foreign loans as ‘misleading’

Updated 22 February 2026
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Islamabad dismisses claims about paying up to 8 percent interest on foreign loans as ‘misleading’

  • Pakistan has long relied on external loans to help bridge persistent gaps in public finances and foreign exchange reserves
  • Pakistan’s total external debt, liabilities stand at $138 billion at an overall average cost of around 4 percent, ministry says

KARACHI: Pakistan’s finance ministry on Sunday dismissed as “misleading” claims that the country is paying up to 8 percent interest on external loans, saying the overall average cost of external public debt is approximately 4 percent.

Pakistan has long relied on external loans to help bridge persistent gaps in public finances and foreign exchange reserves, driven largely by a narrow tax base, chronic trade deficits, rising debt-servicing costs and repeated balance-of-payments pressures.

Over the decades, successive governments have turned to multilateral and bilateral lenders, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, to support budgetary needs and shore up foreign exchange reserves.

The finance ministry on Sunday issued a clarification in response to a “recent press commentary” regarding the country’s external debt position and associated interest payments, and said the figures required contextual explanation to ensure accurate understanding of Pakistan’s external debt profile.

“Pakistan’s total external debt and liabilities currently stand at $138 billion. This figure, however, encompasses a broad range of obligations, including public and publicly guaranteed debt, debt of Public Sector Enterprises (both guaranteed and non-guaranteed), bank borrowings, private-sector external debt, and intercompany liabilities to direct investors. It is therefore important to distinguish this aggregate figure from External Public (Government) Debt, which amounts to approximately $92 billion,” it said.

“Of the total External Public Debt, nearly 75 percent comprises concessional and long-term financing obtained from multilateral institutions (excluding the IMF) and bilateral development partners. Only about 7 percent of this debt consists of commercial loans, while another 7 percent relates to long-term Eurobonds. In light of this composition, the claim that Pakistan is paying interest on external loans ‘up to 8 percent’ is misleading.

The overall average cost of External Public Debt is approximately 4 percent, reflecting the predominantly concessional nature of the borrowing portfolio.”

With respect to interest payments, public external debt interest outflows increased from $1.99 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 to $3.59 billion in FY2025, representing an increase of 80.4 percent, not 84 percent as reported. In absolute terms, interest payments rose by $1.60 billion over this period, not $1.67 billion, it said.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan’s records, Pakistan’s total debt servicing payments to specific creditors during the period under reference were as follows: the IMF received $1.50 billion, of which $580 million constituted interest; Naya Pakistan Certificates payments totaled $1.56 billion, including $94 million in interest; the Asian Development Bank received $1.54 billion, including $615 million in interest; the World Bank received $1.25 billion, including $419 million in interest; and external commercial loans amounted to nearly $3 billion, of which $327 million represented interest payments.

“While interest payments have increased in absolute terms, this rise cannot be attributed solely to an expansion in the debt stock,” the ministry said. “Although the overall debt stock has increased slightly since FY2022, the additional inflows have primarily originated from concessional multilateral sources and the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) under the ongoing IMF-supported program.”

Pakistan secured a $7 billion IMF bailout in Sept. 2024 as part of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s efforts to stabilize the South Asian economy that narrowly averted a default in 2023. The government has since been making efforts to boost trade and bring in foreign investment to consolidate recovery.

“It is also important to note that the increase in interest payments reflects prevailing global interest rate dynamics. In response to the inflation surge of 2021–22, the US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from 0.75-1.00 percent in May 2022 to 5.25–5.50 percent by July 2023. Although rates have since moderated to around 3.75 percent, they remain significantly higher than 2022 levels,” the finance ministry said.

“The government remains committed to prudent debt management, transparency, and the continued strengthening of Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability,” it added.