KARACHI: Pakistan’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in the current fiscal year, supported by ongoing reforms and improved macroeconomic stability, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday.
Pakistan has undertaken stringent economic reforms following a prolonged financial crisis that forced it to seek loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the past two years.
Since then, macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly, though the government acknowledges the need for further consolidation through policies aimed at boosting exports and attracting investment.
ADB’s flagship economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook, also maintained in its April edition the country’s economic position has strengthened under the IMF program.
“Pakistan’s economy has benefitted from improved macroeconomic stability through robust reform implementation in areas such as tax policy and energy sector viability,” said ADB Country Director for Pakistan Emma Fan. “Sustained implementation of policy reforms is vital to buttress this growth trajectory and fortify fiscal and external buffers.”
The Manila-based lender said, “Pakistan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.5% in FY2025, the same growth rate from FY2024.”
It also projected growth to rise to 3% in FY2026.
The report noted average inflation was expected to decline significantly to 6% in FY2025 and further to 5.8% in FY2026.
However, it warned that female labor force participation remained low in Pakistan compared to regional and peer countries, adding that enabling more women to work outside the home could boost productivity and output while advancing female empowerment.
ADB forecasts 2.5% growth for Pakistan this fiscal year as economic reforms take hold
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ADB forecasts 2.5% growth for Pakistan this fiscal year as economic reforms take hold
- The Manila-based lender says the country’s projected growth is likely to rise to 3% in the next fiscal year
- ADB maintains female labor force participation remains low in Pakistan compared to regional countries
IMF warns against policy slippage amid weak recovery as it clears $1.2 billion for Pakistan
- Pakistan rebuilt reserves, cut its deficit and slowed inflation sharply over the past one year
- Fund says climate shocks, energy debt, stalled reforms threaten stability despite recent gains
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economic recovery remains fragile despite a year of painful stabilization measures that helped pull the country back from the brink of default, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Thursday, after it approved a fresh $1.2 billion disbursement under its ongoing loan program.
The approval covers the second review of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review of its climate-focused Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), bringing total disbursements since last year to about $3.3 billion.
Pakistan entered the IMF program in September 2024 after years of weak revenues, soaring fiscal deficits, import controls, currency depletion and repeated climate shocks left the economy close to external default. A smaller stopgap arrangement earlier that year helped avert immediate default, but the current 37-month program was designed to restore macroeconomic stability through strict monetary tightening, currency adjustments, subsidy rationalization and aggressive revenue measures.
The IMF’s new review shows that Pakistan has delivered significant gains since then. Growth recovered to 3 percent last year after shrinking the year before. Inflation fell from over 23 percent to low single digits before rising again after this year’s floods. The current account posted its first surplus in 14 years, helped by stronger remittances and a sharp reduction in imports. And the government delivered a primary budget surplus of 1.3 percent of GDP, a key program requirement. Foreign exchange reserves, which had dropped dangerously low in 2023, rose from US$9.4 billion to US$14.5 billion by June.
“Pakistan’s reform implementation under the EFF arrangement has helped preserve macroeconomic stability in the face of several recent shocks,” IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke said in a statement after the Board meeting.
But he warned that Islamabad must “maintain prudent policies” and accelerate reforms needed for private-sector-led and sustainable growth.
The Fund noted that the 2025 monsoon floods, affecting nearly seven million people, damaging housing, livestock and key crops, and displacing more than four million, have set back the recovery. The IMF now expects GDP growth in FY26 to be slightly lower and forecasts inflation to rise to 8–10 percent in the coming months as food prices adjust.
The review warns Pakistan against relaxing monetary or fiscal discipline prematurely. It urges the State Bank to keep policy “appropriately tight,” allow exchange-rate flexibility and improve communication. Islamabad must also continue raising revenues, broadening the tax base and protecting social spending, the Fund said.
Despite the progress, Pakistan’s structural weaknesses remain severe.
Power-sector circular debt stands at about $5.7 billion, and gas-sector arrears have climbed to $11.3 billion despite tariff adjustments. Reform of state-owned enterprises has slowed, including delays in privatizing loss-making electricity distributors and Pakistan International Airlines. Key governance and anti-corruption reforms have also been pushed back.
The IMF welcomed Pakistan’s expansion of its flagship Benazir Income Support Program, which raises cash transfers for low-income families and expands coverage, saying social protection is essential as climate shocks intensify. But it warned that high public debt, about 72 percent of GDP, thin external buffers and climate exposure leave the country vulnerable if reform momentum weakens.
The Fund said Pakistan’s challenge now is to convert short-term stabilization into sustained recovery after years of economic volatility, with its ability to maintain discipline, rather than the size of external financing alone, determining the durability of its gains.
