Oil Updates — prices steady as investors await Trump’s actions on Russian oil and Iran

The more active June Brent crude futures climbed 11 cents, or 0.15 percent, to $72.87 a barrel by 2:25 p.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 31 March 2025
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Oil Updates — prices steady as investors await Trump’s actions on Russian oil and Iran

LONDON: Oil prices held steady on Monday as investors adopted a cautious, wait-and-see stance after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and warned Iran of possible military action if it did not agree to a deal over its nuclear program.

The more active June Brent crude futures climbed 11 cents, or 0.15 percent, to $72.87 a barrel by 2:25 p.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 8 cents, or 0.12 percent, to $69.44 a barrel. Front-month Brent, trading at $74.06, expires later on Monday.

Oil prices dropped earlier in the session before recovering and stabilizing at current levels.

“(Trump’s) threat on secondary tariffs on Russia and Iranian oil is a factor oil market participants are tracking, although he has indicated he is not planning to introduce them for now,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “But, there is a rising risk of larger supply risks down the road.”

Trump said on Sunday he was “pissed off” at Russian President Vladimir Putin and will impose 25 percent-50 percent secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is hindering his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

China and India are major buyers of Russian crude and their acquiescence would be crucial to making any secondary sanctions package seriously hurt exports from the world’s second largest oil exporter.

Trump also threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.

Some analysts believe that Trump may not act on his threats, a view that is putting a cap on oil prices.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore said the market felt Trump would not follow through. If enacted, he said, the tariffs would be another step toward a trade war that would weigh on global growth and demand for crude oil.

On Monday several Chinese traders were unfazed by the latest threat. Three who spoke with Reuters all said Trump’s constant brinkmanship meant they discounted what he said.

“We expect WTI to stay in a range of $65 to $75 for now as the market assesses the impact of Trump tariffs on oil supply and global economy, as well as the supply situation from the US and OPEC+,” said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities.


UAE bank assets rise 0.8% to $1.43tn as credit expands: CBUAE data 

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UAE bank assets rise 0.8% to $1.43tn as credit expands: CBUAE data 

RIYADH: UAE bank assets rose 0.8 percent in November to 5.25 trillion Emirati dirhams ($1.43 trillion), extending growth in the sector as credit and deposits continued to expand, central bank data showed.  

Gross banking assets increased from 5.2 trillion dirhams in October, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s Monetary and Banking Developments report. Gross credit rose 0.7 percent to 2.53 trillion dirhams, supported by growth in both domestic and foreign lending. 

The domestic expansion included a 0.4 percent rise in credit to the private sector, aligning with the UAE’s “Projects of the 50” agenda to stimulate private investment and reduce the economy's reliance on hydrocarbons. 

In its latest report, CBUAE stated: “Gross credit increased due to the combined growth in domestic credit by 9 billion dirhams and in foreign credit by 8.7 billion dirhams.” 

It added: “The growth in domestic credit was due to the increases in credit to the government sector by 2.6 percent, in the private sector by 0.4 percent, and in credit to the non-banking financial institutions by 3.6 percent, overshadowing the decrease in credit to the public sector (government-related entities) by 1 percent.” 

A notable shift was observed in the money supply data. While the narrow money supply aggregate M1 decreased by 1.7 percent due to a drop in monetary deposits, broader measures saw significant growth.  

The report stated: “The money supply aggregate M2 increased by 1.5 percent,” primarily due to a substantial 58.2 billion dirhams growth in quasi-monetary deposits.

Similarly, M3, which includes government deposits, also rose by 1.5 percent, “amplified by 8.6 billion dirhams increase in government deposits.” 

The simultaneous fall in M1 and rise in M2 and M3 suggests a liquidity transformation within the system, with money moving from checking accounts into savings, time deposits, and government accounts, which can be used for longer-term lending. 

The foundation of the banking system also strengthened, as “the monetary base increased by 1.7 percent.” This growth was driven by the growth in reserve account by 21.5 percent, in currency issued by 2.6 percent, and in monetary bills and Islamic certificates of deposit by 8.8 percent. 

On the deposits side, the report noted that “banks’ deposits increased by 1 percent,” totaling 3.23 trillion dirhams.

This growth was “driven by the growth in resident deposits by 1.4 percent,” which reached 2.97 trillion dirhams. Within resident deposits, the private sector led with a 1.2 percent increase, while deposits in government-related entities saw a significant 3 percent rise.