PARIS: European countries agreed at a summit in Paris Thursday to ramp up rather than lift sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine, as Britain and France began sketching out plans to send a “reassurance” force after any peace.
President Emmanuel Macron hosted the meeting of Ukraine’s European allies and President Volodymyr Zelensky in the latest effort to agree a coordinated policy after Donald Trump shocked Europe by opening direct talks with the Kremlin.
The US claims tentative progress toward a ceasefire to end the three-year conflict sparked by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
But as yet a peace deal appears far off and the meeting of over two dozen European heads of state and government also underlined differences within the “coalition of the willing,” with not all states signing onto the French-British plan to deploy troops postwar.
“He really wants to divide Europe and America, Putin really wants that,” Zelensky said after the summit, adding Kyiv wants Washington to be “stronger” toward the Kremlin.
He warned “everybody understood and understands that today Russia does not want any kind of peace.”
There appeared to be consensus around the table at the Elysee Palace that sanctions imposed against Russia should not be weakened, and rather intensified, until there is peace.
“There was complete clarity that now is not the time for the lifting of sanctions, quite the contrary — what we discussed is how we can increase sanctions to support the US initiative to bring Russia to the table,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said alongside Zelensky.
In a separate briefing, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said lifting sanctions would be a “grave mistake” and “makes no sense” without a truce.
As well as boosting Ukraine’s own armed forces, a key pillar of ensuring security and preventing further Russian invasions could be to deploy European troops to Ukraine, although until now it has been far from clear how this could happen.
Macron said after the summit that France and Britain were leading efforts to send a “reassurance force” to Ukraine after any end to the fighting.
“It does not have unanimity today, but we do not need unanimity to do this,” he added, saying a Franco-British delegation would head to Ukraine in the coming days for talks.
Macron emphasized that members of such a force would not be peacekeepers, deployed on the front line or any kind of substitute for the Ukrainian army.
Also, he said, not all of Ukraine’s European allies would be represented in the force, with some states not “having the capacity” and some reluctant due to the “political context.”
The Franco-British delegation would begin talks over where such a force could be deployed.
It would have the “character of deterrence against any potential Russian aggression,” he said.
Macron added that the summit agreed that he and Starmer would together “co-pilot” Europe’s ‘coalition of action’ for stable and durable peace.”
But Zelensky struck a more downbeat note, warning that “there are many questions” but “so far, there are few answers” about the force, who would lead it and what it can do.
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has long made clear her reserves over the troop deployment plan, said she hoped the United States will be involved in the next European meeting on Ukraine and repeated Rome’s refusal to send troops to defend any peace deal.
But Starmer, hailing the summit, said: “This is Europe mobilizing together behind the peace process on a scale that we haven’t seen for decades, backed by partners from around the world.”
Ukraine has offered through the United States a 30-day ceasefire, but Russia has so far failed to respond, with the European allies growing all the more impatient.
Underscoring how far apart the sides remain, Ukraine accused Russia Thursday of violating a US-brokered agreement to refrain from targeting energy infrastructure with an artillery strike that caused a power outage in the city of Kherson.
The Ukrainian army meanwhile rejected Russian claims it had itself targeted energy sites.
“I think there should be a reaction from the US,” Zelensky told reporters in Paris, saying that energy facilities had been damaged in a strike Thursday and that it was “unclear who is monitoring” the pledges to halt such strikes.
Thursday’s meeting comes after the White House said Russia and Ukraine had agreed on the contours of a possible ceasefire in the Black Sea, during parallel talks with US officials in Saudi Arabia.
Paris summit rejects Russia sanctions relief, mulls Ukraine force
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Paris summit rejects Russia sanctions relief, mulls Ukraine force
- President Emmanuel Macron hosted the meeting of Ukraine’s European allies and President Volodymyr Zelensky
- The US claims tentative progress toward a ceasefire to end the three-year conflict
Rising energy prices from the Iran war could help Russia pay for fighting in Ukraine
- Prices for Russia’s oil exports have risen from under $40 per barrel as recently as December to about $62 per barrel
- The halt in production of ship-borne liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by major supplier Qatar will sharply increase global competition for available cargoes — including those from Russia
FRANKFURT: The Iran war’s disruption of Middle East oil and gas supplies and soaring prices are strengthening Russia’s ability to profit from its energy exports, a pillar of the Kremlin’s budget and a key to paying for its own war in Ukraine.
Prices for Russia’s oil exports have risen from under $40 per barrel as recently as December to about $62 per barrel — first on fears of war and then due to interruption of almost all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for some 20 percent of the world’s oil consumption.
Russian oil still trades at a considerable discount to international benchmark Brent crude, which has risen above $82 from the closing price of $72.87 on Friday, the eve of the attack on Iran by the US and Israel. However, Russian crude is now above the benchmark of $59 per barrel that was assumed in the Russian Finance Ministry’s budget plan for 2026. Oil and gas tax revenues account for up to 30 percent of the Russian federal budget.
Additionally, the halt in production of ship-borne liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by major supplier Qatar will sharply increase global competition for available cargoes — including those from Russia.
A change in fortunes
Russia had seen state oil and gas revenue fall to a four-year low of 393 billion rubles ($5 billion) in January and the budget shortfall of 1.7 trillion rubles ($21.8 billion) for that month was the biggest on record, according to Finance Ministry figures.
The lower revenue was due to weaker global prices and to deep discounts fueled by US and European Union hindrance of Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers with obscure ownership used sell oil to its biggest customers, China and India, in defiance of a Western-imposed price cap and sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft.
Economic growth has stagnated as massive military spending has leveled off. President Vladimir Putin has resorted to tax increases and increased borrowing from compliant domestic banks to keep state finances on an even keel in the fifth year of the war.
“Russia is a big winner from the war-related energy turmoil,” said Simone Tagliapietra, energy expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. “Higher oil prices mean higher revenues for the government and therefore stronger capability to finance the war in Ukraine.”
Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights at data and analytics firm Kpler, writes: “With Middle East barrels facing logistical disruption, both India and China face strong incentives to deepen reliance on Russian supply.”
Additionally, the price of future delivery of natural gas has skyrocketed in Europe, raising questions about EU plans to put an end to imports of Russian LNG by 2027 — reviving bad memories of a 2022 energy crunch after Moscow cut off most supplies of pipeline gas due to the war.
Length of strait’s closure is the key factor
Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most ship traffic, said Alexandra Prokopenko, an expert on the Russian economy at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
A quick exit from the conflict would return Brent prices to roughly $65 per barrel and “a short-lived spike would not fundamentally change” Russia’s budget picture, she said. A middle scenario in which some shipping resumes and oil stabilizes at around $80 per barrel would give Russia “some fiscal relief,” depending on how long the higher prices last.
A long-term closure with Iranian strikes damaging refineries and pipelines could send oil to $108 per barrel, accelerate inflation and push Europe to the edge of recession. “This scenario would bring the largest windfall to Russia,” she said.
Even several weeks of interruption in Gulf LNG could lead to calls in Europe to suspend plans to ban new Russian supply contracts after April 25, said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. consultancy.
“The EU is under even more pressure to work with the US to find a solution to the Ukraine conflict and, very likely, to consider easing the plan for a total block for Russian oil and gas imports,” he said. “Countries such as Hungary and Slovakia and those who have been big buyers of Russian LNG, will press for that review.”
In any case “the Russian federal budget will have a much better result in March,” Weafer said, due to lower discounts on Russian oil and “because there are eager buyers of Russian oil and oil products.”
Putin says European leaders have only themselves to blame
Putin said European governments were to blame for their energy predicament.
“What is happening today on the European markets, is, of course, above all the result of the mistaken policies of European governments in the energy sphere,” Putin said Wednesday on state TV.
He said that “maybe it would be more beneficial for us to halt (gas) supplies now to the European market, and leave for the markets that are opening and get established there,” adding that “it’s not a decision, but in this case what’s called ‘thinking out loud.’”
Putin said he would have the government to look into the issue.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday that Russian oil was “in demand” and that Russia was ready to increase supplies to China and India, the Tass news agency reported.
The head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, took a dig at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, writing on X that “surely the wise Ursula and Kaja have a backup LNG plan. Or maybe not.”
Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Spain have continued to import around 2 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG per month, and on top of that Hungary imports 2 billion cubic meters a month through the Turkstream pipeline across the Black Sea, Tagliapietra said. That would amount to 45 billion cubic meters in 2026, 15 percent of total gas demand for this year.
It’s “not easy to replace this in case the LNG market gets tighter with continued shutdowns in Qatar,” he said.
