Oil Updates — crude falls as market eyes OPEC+ output increase, US tariffs

Brent futures fell 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $70.80 a barrel at 8:00 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 05 March 2025
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Oil Updates — crude falls as market eyes OPEC+ output increase, US tariffs

SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell for a third session on Wednesday as plans by major producers to raise output in April combined with concerns that US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will slow economic growth and hit fuel demand.

Brent futures fell 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $70.80 a barrel at 8:00 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 58 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $67.68 a barrel.

In the previous session, the contracts settled at close to multi-month lows.

“Unfavorable supply-demand dynamics have created a double whammy, with tariff uncertainties posing downside risks to global growth, and in turn, oil demand,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

“OPEC+ remains on track to increase production in April, while optimism over a potential resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict raises the prospects of Russian supplies returning to the market,” Yeap added.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022.

The group will make a small increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, the first step in planned monthly increases to unwind its nearly 6 million bpd of cuts, equal to nearly 6 percent of global demand.

A 25 percent tariff on all imports from Mexico, a 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy and a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20 percent came into effect on Tuesday. The Trump administration also imposed 25 percent tariffs on all other Canadian imports.

US President Donald Trump’s self-declared trade war is seen by economists as a recipe for fewer jobs, slower growth, and higher prices, which could kill demand. The lower economic growth will likely impact fuel consumption in the world’s biggest oil consumer.

The Trump administration also said on Tuesday it was ending a license that the US has granted to US oil producer Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil.

The move puts 200,000 barrels per day of supply at risk, said ING commodities strategists in a note on Wednesday.

“This will leave US refiners looking for alternative heavy grades of crude oil just as other suppliers — Canada and Mexico — face tariffs,” they added.

Meanwhile, US crude stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels in the week ended February 28, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Investors now await government data on US stockpiles, due on Wednesday. 


Global brands shut Middle East stores as conflict causes chaos

Updated 03 March 2026
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Global brands shut Middle East stores as conflict causes chaos

  • Luxury brands and retailers close stores in Middle East
  • Conflict threatens the region that has ‌been luxury’s fastest growing
  • Mass-market retailers monitor situation, adjust operations in region

PARIS: In Dubai and other major Middle Eastern shopping hubs, many stores are closed or operating with a skeleton staff as the escalating conflict in the ​region causes chaos for businesses and travel.

The US-Israeli air war against Iran expanded on Monday with no end in sight, with Tehran firing missiles and drones at Gulf states as it retaliates for a weekend of bombing that killed Iran’s supreme leader and reportedly killed scores of Iranian civilians, including a strike on a girls’ primary school.

Chalhoub Group, which runs 900 stores for brands from Versace and Jimmy Choo to Sephora across the region, said its stores in Bahrain were closed, while other markets, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan remained open though staff attendance was “voluntary.”

“We operate with a lean team formed of members who volunteered and feel comfortable to come to the store,” Chalhoub’s Vice President of Communications Lynn al ‌Khatib told Reuters, adding ‌that the company’s leadership team personally visited Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates ​on ‌Monday ⁠morning to check ​in ⁠with workers.

E-commerce giant Amazon closed its fulfillment center operations in Abu Dhabi, suspended deliveries across the region and instructed its employees in Saudi Arabia and Jordan to remain indoors, Business Insider reported on Monday, citing an internal memo.

Gucci-owner Kering said its stores were temporarily closed in the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar and it has suspended travel to the Middle East.

Luxury growth engine under threat

Shares in luxury groups LVMH, Hermes, and Cartier-owner Richemont were down 4 percent to 5.7 percent on Monday afternoon as investors digested the knock-on impacts of the conflict.

The Middle East still accounts for a small share of global spending on luxury — between 5 percent and 10 percent, according ⁠to RBC analyst Piral Dadhania. But the region was “luxury’s brightest performer” last year, according to consultancy ‌Bain, while sales of expensive handbags have stalled in the rest of the ‌world.

Now, shuttered airports have put an abrupt stop to tourism flows into ​the region and missile strikes — including one that damaged Dubai’s ‌five-star Fairmont Palm hotel — are likely to dissuade travelers, particularly if the conflict drags on.

“If you assume that it’s ‌a $5 billion to $6 billion (travel retail) market and let’s say it’s going to be shut down for a month, we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars that are definitely at risk,” said Victor Dijon, senior partner at consultancy Kearney.

If Middle Eastern shoppers cannot travel to Paris or Milan, that could also hurt luxury sales in Europe, he added.

Luxury brands have been investing in lavish new stores and exclusive events ‌across the region. Cartier unveiled a “high-jewelry” exhibition in Dubai’s Keturah Park just days before the conflict started.

Cartier and Richemont did not reply to requests for comment.

Luxury conglomerate LVMH ⁠has also bet big on ⁠the region. Last month, its flagship brand Louis Vuitton staged an exhibition at the Jumeirah Marsa Al Arab hotel, and beauty retailer Sephora launched its first Saudi beauty brand.

LVMH does not report specific figures for the region, but in January Chief Financial Officer Cecile Cabanis said the Middle East has been “displaying significant growth.” LVMH did not reply to a request for comment on how its business may be impacted by the conflict.

The Middle East has also attracted new investment from mass-market players. Budget fashion retailer Primark said in January that it plans to open three stores in Dubai in March, April and May, followed by stores in Bahrain and Qatar by the end of the year.

“Primark is set to open its first store in Dubai at the end of March but clearly this is a fast-moving situation which we are monitoring closely,” a spokesperson for Primark-owner Associated British Foods said.

Apple stores in Dubai will remain closed until Thursday morning, the company’s website showed, while Swedish fast-fashion retailer ​H&M said its stores in Bahrain and Israel are ​closed.

Consumer goods group Reckitt has told all employees in the Middle East to work from home, temporarily closed its Bahrain manufacturing site and suspended all business travel to the region until further notice.