DUBAI/LONDON: With just days left until the official ban of Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok is set to take effect in the US, speculation is mounting over what happens next — and whether there could still be a last-minute twist.

The short answer: No one knows for certain.

In March 2024, the US House of Representatives passed a bill that, if signed into law, would force ByteDance, the China-based owner of TikTok, to sell the video-sharing app. The Senate passed the bill, and President Joe Biden signed it, ordering ByteDance to sell TikTok to an American company or face a ban in the US by Jan. 19.

At the time, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew said that such a law “will take billions of dollars out of the pockets of creators and small businesses” and put more than 30,000 American jobs at risk.

Neither he nor the company were willing to give up without a fight. In May 2024, TikTok and ByteDance sued the US federal government challenging the law, alleging that it was unconstitutional.

In December, a federal appeals court ruled the TikTok law was constitutional. A month later, on Jan. 10, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a pivotal case brought by TikTok and its users challenging the law on the basis of US users’ First Amendment rights.

On Friday, the Supreme Court upheld the TikTok ban after days of speculation, during which it refrained from making public comments on the case, leaving a sliver of hope for a last-minute reprieve. With the decision now confirmed, TikTok’s options have significantly narrowed.

In its ruling, the court stated: “We conclude that the challenged provisions do not violate petitioners’ First Amendment rights. The judgment of the United States court of appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit is affirmed.”

This decision means TikTok will no longer be available for download from app stores starting Jan. 19.

“There is no doubt that, for more than 170 million Americans, TikTok offers a distinctive and expansive outlet for expression, means of engagement, and source of community. But Congress has determined that divestiture is necessary to address its well-supported national security concerns regarding TikTok’s data collection practices and relationship with a foreign adversary,” the ruling reads.

The outcome seemed increasingly likely during the hearings, with Justice Elena Kagan saying: “The law is only targeted at this foreign corporation that doesn't have First Amendment rights. Whatever effect it has, it has.”

Justice Amy Coney Barrett added: “The law doesn’t say TikTok has to shut down. It says ByteDance has to divest.”

Amid the legal back and forth, TikTok’s knight in shining armor might just be President-elect Donald Trump, who is set to take office on Jan. 20 — one day after the purported ban.

Despite trying to ban the app during his first term over national security concerns, he joined TikTok during his 2024 presidential campaign, during which he pledged to “save TikTok.” He also lauded the platform for helping him win more youth votes.

When asked about his policies on social media regulation, particularly the impending ban of TikTok, Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance Transition Team spokeswoman, told Arab News: “The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin, giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.”

Just last month, Trump urged the Supreme Court to pause the ban.

The brief submitted to the court says Trump “alone possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the Government.”

Moreover, earlier this week, reports emerged that TikTok CEO Chew has been invited to Trump’s inauguration and offered a “position of honor,” suggesting a willingness to engage with the company.

And Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming national security adviser, told FOX News that the new administration would “find a way to preserve (TikTok) but protect people’s data.”

Any intervention by Trump, however, would likely take the form of an executive order temporarily pausing the ban, contingent on TikTok demonstrating progress toward separating from ByteDance. Even then, such an order could face legal challenges, and the law only allows a limited delay of 60 to 90 days to give extra time for negotiations.

Outgoing President Biden, who will leave office on Jan. 19, will not enforce a ban on TikTok, a US official said Thursday, leaving its fate in the hands of Trump.

Rumors of a potential sale have intensified in recent days including speculation of interest from high-profile buyers, such as Elon Musk, but ByteDance dismissed these reports as “pure fiction.”

The company has consistently rejected the possibility of a sale, saying it “is simply not possible: not commercially, not technologically, not legally.”

As the Jan. 19 deadline approaches, the situation remains shrouded in uncertainty, even after Friday’s ruling.

For now, TikTok’s chances of remaining accessible in the US appear practically null, as the case is steeped in complex issues of politics, national security, economic interests, and digital rights.

The law underpinning the ban targets a wide network of US-based partners that facilitate TikTok’s operations, effectively making common workarounds, such as using virtual private networks or changing a phone’s regional settings, either ineffective or impractical, according to experts.

At best, users might gain limited access to a web-based version of the app, which lacks many of its features. However, even that option may not function reliably, experts warned.

The most likely enforcement mechanism would involve compelling app stores like Google Play and Apple’s App Store to remove TikTok from their platforms in the US. Lawmakers have already instructed tech companies to prepare for this scenario if the ban is enacted.

If the app is banned, TikTok reportedly plans to display a pop-up message for users attempting to access the platform, directing them to a website with information about the ban, according to a Reuters report citing sources close to the matter.

For now, TikTok’s operations continue as usual, with the company having reassured employees that their jobs are secure regardless of the Supreme Court’s decision. However, morale within the company is said to be low, despite these reassurances.

What is certain is that TikTok’s leadership has been “planning for various scenarios.” With Friday’s decision now final and the Jan. 19 ban imminent, the company’s next steps will likely take one of two paths: intervention by Trump or divestment to a non-Chinese entity.

Meanwhile, users and critics alike wait in anticipation, seeking clarity on the far-reaching consequences of the ban — potentially rippling as far as the Middle East — and whether any last-minute developments might offer a reprieve for the platform and its millions of US users.