ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to deliver a sixth consecutive policy rate cut this month, a poll found on Tuesday, ahead of a meeting of the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Jan. 27.
The State Bank of Pakistan cut its key policy rate by 200 basis points to 13 percent on Dec. 16. This was the fifth straight reduction since June as Pakistan keeps up efforts to revive a sluggish economy with inflation easing.
The move made last year’s cuts one of the most aggressive among emerging market central banks in the current easing cycle. Cumulatively, the SBP cut rates by 900 basis points in the last year.
In a poll conducted by Karachi-based Topline Securities, 61 percent of the participants expected that the central bank will announce a rate cut of 100 basis points.
“Participants are expecting rate cut due to high real rates of 950bps in Jan. 2025, compared to historic average of 200-300bps, despite 900bps cut in total interest rates in last five consecutive meetings since Jun 2024,” Topline Securities said on Tuesday.
“We also hold the view that the SBP will announce a rate cut of 100bps, taking total cut to 1000bps. This will be 6th consecutive cut of this cycle.”
In Dec. the MPC assessed that its approach of measured policy rate cuts was keeping inflationary and external account pressures in check, while supporting economic growth on a sustainable basis.
The central bank noted that it expected inflation to average “substantially below” its earlier forecast range of 11.5 percent to 13.5 percent in 2025.
On the inflation side, 56 percent of the participants expected inflation to remain below 8 percent this fiscal year (July 2024-June 2025), according to Topline Securities.
The South Asian country is navigating a challenging economic recovery path and has been buttressed by a $7 billion facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
The central bank has said that “considerable efforts and additional measures” will be required for Pakistan to meet its annual revenue target, a key focus of the IMF agreement.
POLL: Pakistan central bank set to deliver sixth consecutive rate cut to revive economy
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POLL: Pakistan central bank set to deliver sixth consecutive rate cut to revive economy
- On the inflation side, 56 percent participants of the poll expect inflation to remain below 8 percent this fiscal year
- Pakistan requires ‘considerable efforts, additional measures’ to meet revenue target, central bank says
Pakistan arrests suspect arriving from Cambodia amid crackdown on human smuggling
- Suspect worked at an “online fraud company” in Cambodia, later started smuggling people from Pakistan, says FIA
- Pakistan has intensified crackdown against human smugglers after hundreds of migrants drowned near Pylos in 2023
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) on Sunday said it had arrested a key suspect involved in smuggling humans who had arrived from Cambodia, alleging he was also part of an international fraud network.
The suspect, identified as Zainullah, was arrested by FIA officials when he arrived in the southern port city of Karachi from Cambodia.
Zainullah had traveled from Pakistan to Cambodia in September 2024, a press release issued by the agency said.
“He worked at an online fraud company in Cambodia and later became involved as an agent in recruiting individuals from Pakistan,” the FIA said.
The FIA said it recovered images of multiple individuals’ passports, payment receipts and bank transaction records after extracting data from Zainullah’s phone.
It said the suspect received money through personal bank accounts and a cryptocurrency account.
“The suspect has been handed over to the FIA Anti-Human Trafficking Circle, Karachi, for further legal proceedings,” the FIA said.
“Further investigation is underway.”
Pakistan intensified action against illegal migration in 2023 after hundreds of migrants, including 262 Pakistanis, drowned when an overcrowded vessel sank off the Greek town of Pylos, one of the deadliest boat disasters in the Mediterranean.
Authorities say they continue to target networks sending citizens abroad through dangerous routes, following heightened scrutiny at airports and a series of arrests involving forged documents.
Pakistan’s interior ministry said this week illegal migration to Europe has declined by 47 percent this year after its nationwide crackdown, saying that more than 1,700 human smugglers have been arrested in 2025.
