What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?

Syrian Kurdish families in Afrin region return to their villages on Dec. 5, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 11 December 2024
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What does Assad’s downfall mean for the millions of Syrians displaced by war?

  • Jubilant after the fall of Assad, many displaced Syrians are eager to return home, despite destruction and political instability
  • UN refugee chief calls for ‘patience and vigilance’ as governments suspend Syrian asylum claims and consider deportations

LONDON: Although Syria remains in a precarious state just days after the fall of the regime of Bashar Assad, hundreds of displaced Syrians have flocked to border crossings in Lebanon and Turkiye, eager to return to their homeland after more than 13 grueling years of civil war.

At daybreak on Monday, scores of people gathered at the Cilvegozu and Oncupinar border gates in southern Turkiye and the Masnaa crossing in Lebanon, confident for the first time in years that they would not face arrest or conscription when they reached the other side.

On Sunday, in a historic moment for the Middle East, a coalition of armed opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham seized Damascus. Now a refugee himself, Assad fled the country and sought asylum in Russia, marking an inglorious end of his family’s brutal 54-year rule.

Syrians displaced across the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and further afield by the years of fighting and persecution in their home country poured into the streets in celebration, jubilant that the uprising that began in 2011 had finally succeeded in dislodging Assad.




An aerial view shows long vehicle queues have formed on the roads leading to and from Damascus on December 8, 2024. (Getty Images)

Syria remains the world’s largest refugee crisis. Since the outbreak of civil war in 2011 following the regime’s brutal suppression of anti-government protests, the UN says more than 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes.

While the majority sought refuge in other parts of Syria, including areas outside the regime’s control, others fled to neighboring countries — primarily Turkiye and Lebanon, but also Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq. Many more risked the perilous Mediterranean crossing to Europe.

Some 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced, where 70 percent of the population is deemed to require humanitarian assistance and where 90 percent live below the poverty line, according to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR.

More than 5 million Syrian refugees live in the five neighboring countries — Turkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. Turkiye alone hosts around 3.2 million registered with the UNHCR, while Lebanon hosts at least 830,000.

Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a nonpartisan Washington think tank, believes the first Syrians to return are likely “the most vulnerable,” such as those in Lebanon and in Turkiye, who have endured poverty and mounting hostility.

“In general, because of the situation in Lebanon and Turkiye being so bad, I think these people would be the most likely to come back,” Shaar told Arab News. “Many of them would be willing to go back to the rubble of their houses as long as Assad is not there because it just can’t get any worse.”

In Lebanon, anti-Syrian sentiment has grown significantly since the country was plunged into a debilitating economic crisis in 2019. There have even been cases of violence against members of the community and their property.

In April, Syrians were attacked and publicly humiliated in the streets of Byblos after a senior Lebanese Forces official, Pascal Suleiman, was reportedly killed by a Syrian gang during a botched carjacking.




On Monday, scores of people gathered at the Masnaa crossing in Lebanon. (AFP)

Compounding the plight of Syrians, the recent Israeli assault on Lebanon has displaced many families already struggling to survive, forcing them to live on the streets amid reports they have been denied access to municipal shelters.

Even before the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, displaced Syrians were subjected to restrictions on work and access to public services. Some 90 percent of them lived in extreme poverty, according to the UN.

Returning to Syria while Assad remained in power was out of the question for many. Before the regime’s downfall on Sunday, Human Rights Watch warned that Syrians fleeing Lebanon risked repression and persecution upon their return, including “enforced disappearance, torture, and death in detention.”

Indeed, the Syrian Network for Human Rights documented at least nine arrests of returnees prior to Oct. 2, most of which were reportedly linked to “mandatory and reserve” military conscription.




Syrian and Lebanese people celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime on December 8, 2024, in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. (AFP)

In Turkiye, Syrians have frequently been scapegoated by politicians. In July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused opposition parties of fueling xenophobia and racism. His remarks came a day after anti-Syrian riots broke out in the Kayseri province after a Syrian refugee there was alleged to have sexually assaulted a 7-year-old Syrian girl.

A similar wave of violence erupted in an Ankara neighborhood in 2021 after a Turkish teenager was stabbed to death by a group of young Syrians. Hundreds of people took to the streets, vandalizing Syrian owned businesses.

Erdogan announced on Monday that Turkiye was opening its Yayladagi border gate with Syria to facilitate the safe and voluntary return of refugees, Reuters reported. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said his country would support the return of Syrians to contribute to the reconstruction of the conflict-ravaged country.

“Those with families in Syria are eager to at least pay them a visit,” Marwah Morhly, a Turkiye-based media professional, told Arab News.

“Many are making plans to visit their hometowns with their children, who were born in Turkiye and have never been to Syria or met their relatives in person.”




Children walk in a camp for Syrian refugee in Turkiye set up by Turkish relief agency AFAD in the Islahiye district of Gaziantep on February 15, 2023. (AFP)

However, given the ongoing insecurity and political uncertainty in Syria, and the fact that many Syrians have built lives in Turkiye, the decision to return is not an easy one to make.

Morhly herself is hesitant about visiting, despite longing for her hometown of Damascus. “I can’t take a risk with a young child,” she said, referring to her son. Such a decision would depend on a Syrian-Turkish agreement on the refugee issue, she added.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said “there is a remarkable opportunity” for Syrians “to begin returning home.”

“But with the situation still uncertain, millions of refugees are carefully assessing how safe it is to do so. Some are eager, while others are hesitant,” he added in a statement on Monday.




Syrians in Turkiye celebrate the fall of Assad in Gaziantep, on December 8, 2024. (AFP)

Urging “patience and vigilance,” he expressed hope that refugees would be able to “make informed decisions” based on developments on the ground. Those decisions, he added, would depend on “whether the parties in Syria prioritize law and order.”

He stressed that “a transition that respects the rights, lives, and aspirations of all Syrians — regardless of ethnicity, religion, or political beliefs — is crucial for people to feel safe.”

UNHCR “will monitor developments, engage with refugee communities, and support states in any organized voluntary returns,” he added, pledging to “support Syrians wherever they are.”

Grandi also highlighted that “the needs within Syria remain immense,” as more than 13 years of war and economic sanctions had “shattered infrastructure.”




A photo taken from the Lebanese side of the northern border crossing of Al-Arida shows Syrian fighters assisting with the passage of Syrians back into their country on December 10, 2024. (AFP)

In Europe, home to at least 4.5 million Syrian refugees, several countries — including Austria, France, The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Greece, and the UK — announced they had halted Syrian asylum applications just hours after Assad’s fall.

Germany, which is home to the continent’s largest Syrian diaspora, was one of the first European countries to respond.

Nancy Faeser, Germany’s interior minister, said in a statement on Monday that the current “volatile situation” in Syria is the reason her country’s migration authority has paused asylum decisions, leaving thousands of Syrian applicants in limbo.

Austria has gone a step further, announcing plans to deport Syrian migrants. Interior Minister Gerhard Karner told Austrian media he has “instructed the ministry to prepare an orderly return and deportation program to Syria.

In The Netherlands, the government said it would stop assessing applications for six months. However, many are concerned it may also begin deportations.




Members of the Syrian community wave Syrian flags as celebrate on December 8, 2024 in Berlin, Germany. (AFP)

Discussions about sending refugees back to Syria amid such uncertainty have left many Syrians anxious about their future. This is particularly concerning for those who have built lives and established roots in their host countries.

Anti-refugee discourse has become increasingly common since the height of the European refugee crisis in 2015, when around 5.2 million people from conflict zones across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East arrived on European shores.

For many governments in Europe, the fall of the Assad regime could offer just the opportunity they were waiting for to show they are addressing public concerns about migration by removing thousands of Syrians.

But until Syria’s security situation stabilizes and its political future under its new de facto leadership becomes clearer, forced returns may be premature — or could even break international laws against refoulement should returnees come to harm.

Indeed, with the country still divided among rival factions, extremist groups like Daesh still at large, infrastructure in ruins, an economy crippled by sanctions, and uncertainty over the political agenda of the victorious HTS, Syria is by no means guaranteed peace and security.

 


International reaction to Gaza ceasefire deal

Updated 2 sec ago
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International reaction to Gaza ceasefire deal

Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal on Wednesday, mediators said, pausing a devastating 15-month war in Gaza and raising the possibility of winding down an Israeli military operation that has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians.
The deal, coming after weeks of painstaking negotiations in the Doha, promises the release in phases of dozens of hostages held by Hamas since it led an attack on Israel in October 2023 that killed at least 1,200 people.
International response to the deal, which is yet to be confirmed by Israel, overwhelmingly welcomed the agreement.
US President Elect Donald Trump welcomed the deal ahead of US official comment and focussed his comments on the Israeli hostages.
"We have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly. Thank you!" he said in a post on his Truth Social platform.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told reporters in Ankara that the ceasefire deal was an important step for regional stability. Fidan also said Turkish efforts for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would continue.









(Reporting by Reuters bureaus Compiled by Alison Williams)

Shiite blocs fail to attend opening day of talks on forming new Lebanese government

Updated 42 min 1 sec ago
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Shiite blocs fail to attend opening day of talks on forming new Lebanese government

  • Hezbollah and Amal refuse to participate after MPs choose Nawaf Salam as prime minister-designate, rather than caretaker PM Najib Mikati as Hezbollah expected
  • Change Alliance says ‘Lebanon has entered a new phase,’ calls for quota-free government in which women are properly represented

BEIRUT: The speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, failed to attend a scheduled meeting on Wednesday with Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, as the Shiite Amal and Hezbollah blocs refused to participate on day one of non-binding consultations on forming a new government.

The talks will continue until Thursday evening with the aim of gauging the opinions of parliamentary blocs, independent MPs and reformist MPs about the structure and participation in the new government.

The failure of the Shiite blocs to attend was a response to what Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad described as a “trap” and act of “exclusion,” after a majority of MPs this week voted for Salam as prime minister-designate, rather than the incumbent caretaker PM, Najib Mikati, as Hezbollah had expected.

On the eve of the consultations, both the newly appointed President Joseph Aoun and Salam stressed that “there is no intention to break or exclude any party in the country, but rather to promote unity and partnership.” However, Hezbollah and Amal maintained their positions and refused to participate in the talks.

Adding to the uncertainty, Amal Movement MP Qassem Hashem stated that “not attending the consultations does not mean boycotting the government or the prime minister-designate.” He said the blocs were “taking a political stance, not one directed against the prime minister-designate, as what he said yesterday offers grounds for engagement.”

According to media reports, “communication between Salam and Berri has not ceased, and the period between the conclusion of non-binding parliamentary consultations and the subsequent negotiations on the formation of the government between the parties is expected to determine whether the Amal and Hezbollah blocs will choose to participate in the government.”

On the question of whether the aim of the refusal to participate was to send a message abroad, Berri said: “Lebanon must move forward.”

Independent MP Ibrahim Mneimneh told Arab News: “It is essential today to approach matters with wisdom and to return to communication. No party should feel excluded or perceive any intention to undermine the other, and all must unite in the endeavor of state-building.”

Regarding allusions by Hezbollah to the issue of losing legitimacy, Mneimneh said: “The matter of legitimacy is more of a political issue than a constitutional one. Therefore, when those with concerns are reassured, I believe that matters will proceed normally. This phase is crucial for state building, and it is expected that everyone participates in this process.”

The opening day of the consultations were limited to the parliamentary blocs, which predominantly represent partisan trends.

MP Mark Daou, representing the Change Alliance, said: “Lebanon has entered a new phase. We demanded a smaller government consisting of new faces in which women are represented, far from partisan quotas, with the necessity of playing a major political role, and without mixing the parliament with the ministry, and without returning to the trilogy: army, people, resistance.”

MP Taymour Jumblatt, leader of the Democratic Gathering bloc, said after talks with Salam: “We have an opportunity to build the state of the future. We focused on the necessity of communicating with everyone and opening a dialogue with everyone, as no one can cancel the other. We also hope that political actors will ease the pressure on (President) Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam.”

MP Ibrahim Kanaan, representing the Independent Consultative Gathering, said: “The designated prime minister is eager to engage with everyone and cooperate with them. We hope that the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal) will join hands with us.

“In light of our objectives, all obstacles can be overcome and it is crucial to have political will behind those appointed to the government to facilitate and ensure the success of the mandate.

“There is a pressing need for courage, decisive action and implementation, particularly regarding administration, finance and financial accounts.”

MP Sagih Atieh said the National Moderation bloc called for a “ministerial portfolio, the acceleration of the government formation process, and the inclusion of all parties in it.” During the talks, he added, “Salam emphasized the principle of balanced development.”

The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, said: “The appointment of Salam is not a defeat for anyone but a victory for the reformist ideology.”

He added that his bloc “has not made any demands regarding the government and is ready to assist, believing that the government should represent parliamentary forces but consist of specialists.”

MP George Adwan, speaking on behalf of the Strong Republic bloc led by the Lebanese Forces party, called for “the government’s plan to align with the speech delivered by the president when he took the oath.”

He added: “We do not wish to return to any previous political formulas, including ‘army, people and resistance.’ The state’s authority must extend over all of its territories, while the era of national consensus governments must come to an end.”

Adwan reiterated his bloc’s calls for “a fight against corruption and for an indictment to be issued in the Beirut port explosion case within the next few months.

“Additionally, we will not accept any plan that would involve writing off depositors’ funds. We also want the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to be relaunched, while the new government must reflect the proper representation of the Lebanese people.”

MP Tony Frangieh said the Independent National Bloc wants “the formation of a government composed of competent individuals and capable of addressing the current challenges. We did not discuss our participation in the government. Nawaf Salam possesses the wisdom needed to save Lebanon. It is important for all the country’s components to communicate, as the government requires the broadest consensus possible.”

The head of the Lebanese Kataeb Party bloc, MP Sami Gemayel, said he wants a government “composed of competent individuals. We will let President Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Salam decide on the form of the government.”

He added: “What we see today is far from exclusionary and I wish we had not been excluded in the past.”


Israel, Hamas agree to ceasefire deal to pause Gaza war and release some hostages — mediators 

Updated 51 min 24 sec ago
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Israel, Hamas agree to ceasefire deal to pause Gaza war and release some hostages — mediators 

  • Officials from Qatar and Hamas confirm deal has been reached, Israel hasn’t yet commented
  • Agreement still needs Netanyahu cabinet’s approval but expected to go into effect in coming days

DOHA: Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal, mediators announced Wednesday, pausing a devastating 15-month war in the Gaza Strip and raising the possibility of winding down the the deadliest and most destructive fighting between the bitter enemies.
The deal, coming after weeks of painstaking negotiations in the Qatari capital, promises the release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas in phases, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel and would allow hundreds of thousands of people displaced in Gaza to return to what remains of their homes. It also would flood badly needed humanitarian aid into a devastated territory.
Officials from Qatar and Hamas confirmed that a deal had been reached, while Israel hasn’t yet commented.
The agreement still needs to be approved by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet, but is expected to go into effect in the coming days.
The deal is expected to deliver an initial six-week halt to fighting that is to be accompanied by the opening of negotiations on ending the war altogether.
Over six weeks, 33 of the nearly 100 hostages are to be reunited with their loved ones after months in in captivity with no contact with the outside world, though it’s unclear if all are alive.
It remained unclear exactly when and how many displaced Palestinians would be able to return to what remains of their homes and whether the agreement would lead to a complete end to the war and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza — key Hamas demands for releasing the remaining captives.
Many longer-term questions about postwar Gaza remain, including who will rule the territory or oversee the daunting task of reconstruction.
Still, the announcement offered the first sign of hope in months that Israel and Hamas may be winding down the most deadly and destructive war they’ve ever fought, a conflict that has destabilized the broader Middle East and sparked worldwide protests.
Hamas triggered the war with its Oct. 7, 2023, cross-border attack, which killed some 1,200 Israelis and took 250 others hostage. Israel responded with a fierce offensive that has killed over 46,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, displaced an estimated 90 percent of Gaza’s population and sparked a humanitarian crisis.
More than 100 hostages were freed from Gaza in a weeklong truce in November 2023.


France to decide response to Algeria ‘hostility’ as tensions mount — minister

Updated 15 January 2025
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France to decide response to Algeria ‘hostility’ as tensions mount — minister

  • French officials say Algiers is adopting a policy that aims to wipe France’s economic presence from the country
  • “The relationship between France and Algeria is not a bilateral relationship like any other, it is a relationship of deep intimacy,” Jean-Noel Barrot told lawmakers

PARIS: President Emmanuel Macron and key members of the government will meet in the coming days to decide how to respond to what Paris deems as growing hostility from Algeria, France’s foreign minister said on Wednesday.
Ties between Paris and Algiers have been complicated for decades, but have taken a turn for the worse since last July when Macron angered Algeria by recognizing a plan for autonomy for the Western Sahara region under Moroccan sovereignty.
Although diplomatic ties have not been ruptured, French officials say Algiers is adopting a policy that aims to wipe France’s economic presence from the country, with trade falling by as much as 30 percent since the summer.
A poor relationship has major security, economic and social repercussions: trade is extensive and some 10 percent of France’s 68 million population has links to Algeria, according to French officials.
“The relationship between France and Algeria is not a bilateral relationship like any other, it is a relationship of deep intimacy,” Jean-Noel Barrot told lawmakers, accusing Algeria of taking a “hostile posture.”
Barrot has offered to go to Algeria to discuss the standoff.
In November, Algeria’s banking association tested the waters verbally to suggest a directive to end banking transactions to and from France, although did not go through with it given the extensive nature of trade ties between the two countries, three diplomats said.
Diplomats and traders say French firms are no longer being considered in tenders for wheat imports to Algeria, to which France had been a key exporter.
Beyond business, Macron accused Algiers of “dishonoring itself” by detaining arbitrarily Franco-Algerian author Boualem Sansal, whose health has worsened in recent weeks.
Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has called Sansal an “imposter” sent by France.
With Macron’s government under pressure to toughen immigration policies, a diplomatic spat also broke out last week after several Algerian social media influencers were arrested in France and accused of inciting violence.
One was deported to Algiers, where authorities sent him back to Paris, citing legal procedures. That sparked anger among France’s right-wing parties and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau accused Algiers of trying to humiliate the former colonial power.
“This is a violation of the texts that govern our relationship and it is a precedent that we consider serious,” Barrot said, adding that this and the arrest of Sansal had forced Paris’ hands to decide how to respond.
Algeria’s foreign ministry denied on Saturday it was seeking escalation with France and said the far-right in France was carrying out a disinformation campaign against Algeria.

PAST TRAUMA
The relationship between the two countries is scarred by the trauma of the 1954-1962 independence war in which the North African country broke with France.
About 400,000 Algerian civilians and fighters were killed, as well as about 35,000 French and as many as 30,000 Muslim “harkis” who fought in the French army against Algerian insurgents.
Macron has over the years pushed for more transparency regarding France’s past with Algeria while also saying that Algeria’s “politico-military system” had rewritten the history of its colonization by France based on “a hatred of France.”
Jalel Harchaoui, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the countries were locked in an escalating standoff.
“Many politicians in Paris say they want to force Algeria to soften its position, but Algiers has every intention to stand firm. Algeria feels all the more emboldened by the fact that France is far less important to its economy than a few years ago,” he said.


First Israel strike on new Syria security forces kills 3: medical source, monitor

Security forces reporting to Syria’s transitional government patrol the streets of Dummar, a suburb of Damascus.
Updated 15 January 2025
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First Israel strike on new Syria security forces kills 3: medical source, monitor

  • “An Israeli drone launched an attack targeting a military convoy... killing two members of the Military Operations Department” and one civilian, monitor said

DAMASCUS: An Israeli air strike hit a military target belonging to Syria’s new authorities for the first time on Wednesday, killing three people, a war monitor and a medical source said.
“An Israeli drone launched an attack targeting a military convoy... killing two members of the Military Operations Department” and one civilian, in southern Syria’s Quneitra region, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
A medical source told AFP a local official from the Ghadir Al-Bustan area was among the three killed in the strike.
“This is the first Israeli strike targeting the security forces of the new authorities,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the British-based Observatory with a network of sources inside Syria.
Security forces had been conducting a sweep in the area to search for weapons in civilian homes, the Observatory said.
Israel has launched hundreds of strikes on targets belonging to Syria’s now-defunct army since militant-led forces ousted President Bashar Assad on December 8, destroying most of the military’s arsenal, the Observatory has said.
The same day Assad was toppled, Israel also announced that its troops were crossing the armistice line and occupying a UN-patrolled buffer zone that has separated Israeli and Syrian forces on the strategic Golan Heights since 1974.
Israel seized much of the Golan Heights from Syria in a war in 1967, later annexing the territory in a move largely unrecognized by the international community.