New militias sow future danger for war-weary Sudan

New members of Sudan's armed forces display their skills during a graduation ceremony in the eastern city of Gedaref on November 5, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 04 December 2024
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New militias sow future danger for war-weary Sudan

  • They established the so-called joint forces to fight on the army’s side, while other groups “wavered, before throwing their weight behind the RSF,” Hamrour said
  • Historically, though ethnic or tribal armed groups “may ally themselves with the regular army, they remain essentially independent,” according to Ameer Babiker, author of the book “Sudan’s Peace: A Quagmire of Militias and Irregular Armies”

CAIRO: Mohamed Idris, 27, has despaired of ever finding a job in war-torn Sudan. Instead, he’s now set his sights on a training camp on the Eritrean border, hoping to join a militia.
“I got my university degree but there aren’t any job opportunities, if I get into a training camp I can at least defend my country and my people,” he told AFP from Kassala in Sudan, the nearest city to the border.
Analysts say the growing role such militias and armed groups are playing in the war will only prolong the country’s suffering.
Sudan’s war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April 2023, sparking what the UN calls the world’s worst displacement crisis.
More than eight million people have been uprooted internally and more than three million have fled abroad.
The northeast African country is on the brink of famine, according to aid agencies, and a UN investigation found both sides committed rights abuses with the RSF particularly implicated in sexual violence.
In Sudan’s east, Kassala and Gedaref have so far been spared the chaos of war, but host more than a million people who have fled fighting elsewhere.
In both cities, AFP correspondents have seen convoys of four-wheel drives mounted with anti-aircraft weapons speed through the streets.
Each vehicle, blasting its horn as it went, was manned by a handful of young men waving assault rifles — though the nearest battles are hundreds of kilometers (miles) away.
The men, like Idris, are part of a generation who have lost their futures to the flames of Sudan’s war.

Now, they represent recruiting potential for new armed groups being formed, particularly along ethnic and tribal lines in the country’s army-controlled east.
“The forces I want to join are from my tribe and my family,” said Idris.
According to Sudanese analyst and former culture and information minister Faisal Mohammed Saleh, “these groups haven’t yet joined the fray in the current war.”
“But the fear is that they could be preparing for future rounds,” he told AFP.
Sudan, which has only known brief interludes of civilian rule since independence from Britain in 1956, is rife with armed groups, some with the capacity of small armies.
For decades, many were locked in wars with the central government, claiming to champion the rights of marginalized ethnic minorities or regions.
In 2020, most signed a peace agreement with the government in Khartoum, and several rebel leaders subsequently became senior officials in the government of army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.
“In the first months of the war, many of these groups were neutral, but have since declared allegiance to the army,” Sudanese policy researcher Qusay Hamrour told AFP.
They established the so-called joint forces to fight on the army’s side, while other groups “wavered, before throwing their weight behind the RSF,” Hamrour said.
According to former information minister Saleh, “what’s new now is the eastern Sudanese groups, most of which are training inside Eritrea.”
Eyewitnesses told AFP earlier this year that they saw Sudanese fighters being trained in at least five locations in neighboring Eritrea, which has not commented on the allegations.
The witnesses said the camps were linked to Burhan’s army or to figures from the former Islamist-backed regime of ousted dictator Omar Al-Bashir.

Historically, though ethnic or tribal armed groups “may ally themselves with the regular army, they remain essentially independent,” according to Ameer Babiker, author of the book “Sudan’s Peace: A Quagmire of Militias and Irregular Armies.”
Khartoum has long relied on armed groups to fight its wars in other parts of Sudan.
In response to an uprising in Darfur in 2003, Bashir unleashed the Janjaweed militia, leading to war crimes charges against him and others.
The RSF, formalized by Bashir in 2013, are descended from the Janjaweed.
In 2021, army chief Burhan led a coup that derailed a fragile civilian transition that followed Bashir’s own ouster.
By April 2023, a long-running power struggle between Burhan and his deputy, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, erupted into all-out war.
Now, what Babiker calls “the weakness of the Sudanese state” has compelled it to again to depend on militias to secure territory.
He said this strategy would “only lead to these groups growing stronger, making them impossible to bypass in the future.”
Already, there have emerged “multiple centers of decision-making within the army,” he told AFP.
According to a May report from the International Crisis Group think tank, “both main belligerents are struggling with command and control.”
Burhan, increasingly reliant on powers from the Bashir regime “as well as communal militias and other armed groups ... risks losing his hold on the various factions.”
Meanwhile the RSF is “an ever more motley assortment of tribal militias and warlords,” according to Crisis Group, which says that both wartime coalitions have become more unwieldy.

 


Tourism on hold as Middle East war casts uncertainty

Updated 58 min 39 sec ago
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Tourism on hold as Middle East war casts uncertainty

  • Cancelled flights, postponed trips and a great deal of uncertainty: the war in the Middle East is casting a long shadow over the tourism outlook for the region

PARIS: Cancelled flights, postponed trips and a great deal of uncertainty: the war in the Middle East is casting a long shadow over the tourism outlook for a region that has become a prized destination for travelers worldwide.
“My last group of tourists left three days ago, and all the other groups planned for March have been canceled,” said Nazih Rawashdeh, a tour guide near Irbid, in northern Jordan.
“This is the start of the high season here. It’s catastrophic,” he told AFP.
“And yet there’s no problem in Jordan. It’s perfectly safe.”
Across the world, tour operators are scrambling to find solutions for clients stranded in the region or who had trips planned there.
“The priority is getting those already there back home,” said Alain Capestan, president of the French tour operator Comptoir des Voyages.
He said however that the war was also affecting customers who have traveled to other parts of the world, as the Gulf region is home to several major aviation hubs — Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha.
Like other companies, the German tour operators surveyed by AFP — Alltours, Dertour, Schauinsland-Reisen — announced they would cover the cost of extra nights for clients stranded in the Middle East. They also canceled trips to the UAE and Oman until at least March 7.
Swiss operator MSC Cruises, which has a ship stranded in Dubai, told AFP on Thursday it was sending five charter flights to airlift nearly 1,000 passengers.
The firm said it expected the passengers to be out of the region by Saturday, without specifying the destinations of the flights or the nationalities of the holidaymakers.
The British travel industry association ABTA said agencies “would not be sending customers to the region for as long as the British Foreign Office advises against all non-essential travel.”
Customers whose holidays were canceled in recent days will be able to rebook or receive a refund, it said.
- Economic impact -
The war is disrupting a sector that had been booming in the region.
According to UN Tourism, in 2025 around 100 million tourists visited the Middle East — nearly seven percent of all international tourists recorded worldwide. That figure had grown three percent year-on-year and 39 percent compared to the pre-pandemic period.
Depending on the destination, Europeans make up a large share of visitors, followed by tourists from South Asia, the Americas, and other Middle Eastern countries.
For example, nearby markets accounted for 26 percent of total visitors to Dubai in 2025, according to its Ministry of Tourism and Economy.
Against this backdrop analysts Oxford Economics warns that “a decline in tourist flows to the region will deal a more severe economic blow than in the past, as tourism’s share of GDP has grown, as has employment in the sector.”
“We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27 percent year-on-year in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13 percent growth,” said Director of Global Forecasting Helen McDermott.
That would translate, according to the firm, to between 23 and 38 million fewer international visitors compared to the prior scenario, and a loss of $34 to $56 billion in tourist spending.
After Covid and then the conflict in Gaza, tourists had been coming back, said Rawashdeh, the Jordanian tour guide.
“For the past six months, people working in tourism here had hope. And now there’s a war. This is going to be terrible for the economy,” he said.
“We’ve definitely noticed an understandable slowdown in new bookings from our partners right now, but we fully expect that to bounce back as soon as things settle down and travelers feel more confident,” said Ibrahim Mohamed, marketing director of Middle East Travel Alliance, which offers direct tours to American and British operators.
He remains optimistic: “The Middle East has always been an incredibly resilient market, and demand always bounces back fast once stability returns.”