Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the weekly Cabinet session on Tuesday during which he approved the Kingdom’s budget for 2025. SPA
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Updated 26 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Tuesday approved the state budget for fiscal year 2025 with revenues projected at SR1.18 trillion ($315.73 billion) and expenditure at SR1.28 trillion, leading to a deficit of SR101 billion.

The Finance Ministry forecasted Saudi Arabia’s Real GDP growth at 4.6 percent in 2025, up from the 0.8 percent estimate for 2024. This growth will be driven by a rise in non-oil sector activities, according to the statement.

The figures align with projections from the ministry’s pre-budget statement in September, showing a 4 percent decline in revenues, a 4 percent decline in expenditures, and a 12 percent lower deficit compared to the latest FY 2024 estimates.

The FY2025 forecast are based on a baseline scenario, which represents a middle ground between higher and lower revenue projections, taking into account potential changes in economic activity and global petroleum market conditions.

The ministry projects the deficit to remain at similar levels in the medium term, with SR130 billion in 2026 and SR140 billion in 2027, driven by the government’s strategic expansionary spending policies aimed at fostering economic diversification and sustainable growth. Revenues are expected to rise over the next two years, reaching around SR1.3 trillion by 2027.

The Kingdom’s total debt is projected to reach SR1.3 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 29.9 percent of GDP, reflecting a sustainable level to meet financing needs.

Revised projections for Saudi Arabia’s 2024 budget indicate a deficit of SR115 billion, with total debt expected to reach SR1.2 trillion, or 29.3 percent of GDP.

The fiscal year 2025 budget prioritizes maintaining essential services for citizens and residents, while accelerating spending on key projects and sectors.

It focuses on preserving fiscal stability and achieving long-term sustainability by managing government reserves and maintaining sustainable public debt levels, ensuring the Kingdom’s resilience against unforeseen economic shocks.

In a statement following the weekly Cabinet session, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman emphasized the government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the Kingdom’s economic base. “We will continue to work on expanding the economic base and enhancing the Kingdom’s financial position,” he stated.

He also highlighted the pivotal role of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth funds—the Public Investment Fund and the National Development Fund—in driving economic stability and achieving Vision 2030 objectives. “These funds are essential to diversifying the economy and supporting long-term investments,” he said.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is advancing through strategic reforms and robust investment initiatives under Vision 2030, emphasizing diversification and fiscal sustainability.

Key objectives include increasing the private sector’s contribution to GDP, growing the share of foreign investment, and boosting non-oil exports.

The strategy also prioritizes reducing unemployment and accelerating investment growth by enhancing the business environment, providing innovative financing solutions, and attracting regional headquarters of multinational companies to establish a strong presence in the Kingdom.

Key enablers, including the PIF, are driving private sector growth, launching transformative projects, and fostering new industries.

These efforts, outlined in the 2025 budget statement, aim to boost social and economic outcomes while ensuring resilience against global challenges and long-term prosperity.

Breakdown of projected government revenues and expenditures

The ministry projects tax income at SR379 billion in 2025, making up around 32 percent of total revenues. This represents a 4 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates. The majority of these levies, accounting for 77 percent, come from taxes on goods and services.

According to the ministry, this growth is driven by sustained improvements in economic activity, the ongoing development of tax administration, and enhanced collection processes, all of which have contributed to a boost in total tax revenues.

In terms of sector-specific expenditures, the military sector received the largest allocation at SR272 billion, marking a 5 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates.

The health and social development sector followed with a 20.25 percent share amounting to SR260 billion.

General items with 14.95 percent share of 2025 budgeted expenditures will be allocated SR192 billion.

Financing the deficit

The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the National Debt Management Center develops an annual borrowing plan aligned with the Kingdom’s medium-term debt strategy, ensuring long-term debt sustainability.

This strategy not only diversifies financing sources, encompassing both domestic and external markets, but also enhances the Kingdom’s standing in global debt markets.

Additionally, the government is expanding its financing channels by tapping into bond and sukuk issuance, loans, and alternative funding models like project and infrastructure financing, as well as collaborating with export credit agencies.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the Kingdom maintains a robust fiscal position, underpinned by substantial financial reserves and manageable public debt levels.

This fiscal strength provides the government with the ability to manage potential economic shocks and meet its financing needs across short, medium, and long-term horizons, while securing favorable borrowing terms from both domestic and international markets.

The crown prince also reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms that have already improved Saudi Arabia’s credit ratings. While the projected deficit for 2025 signals short-term fiscal challenges, the government is focused on ensuring long-term economic sustainability.

He noted that this year’s budget will continue to prioritize economic diversification, with significant emphasis on empowering the private sector and fostering growth in small and medium-sized enterprises.

The crown prince stressed that, despite global economic uncertainties, Saudi Arabia is well-positioned to navigate external challenges and play an increasingly central role in regional and global economic stability.

“Our economy is well-prepared to overcome challenges,” he said.

He also emphasized the importance of long-term financial planning to maintain momentum on Vision 2030 initiatives, underscoring the government's focus on spending efficiency and transparent execution of the budget to meet its strategic goals.

Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to “Aa3” from “A1” on Friday, highlighting the country’s progress in diversifying its economy beyond oil.

The Kingdom is investing heavily in Vision 2030 initiatives, focusing on sectors like tourism, sports, and manufacturing, while also attracting foreign investment.

Despite lower oil prices and reduced production, Saudi Arabia continues to adjust its spending, delaying or scaling back some Vision 2030 projects while prioritizing others.

Moody’s revised the country’s outlook to stable, reflecting uncertainties in global economic conditions and the oil market. In September, S&P also upgraded Saudi Arabia’s outlook to positive due to strong non-oil growth.


Saudi Arabia pulls in most of Partners for Growth $450m capital push

Updated 07 February 2026
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Saudi Arabia pulls in most of Partners for Growth $450m capital push

  • Global private credit fund leans into region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has captured the vast majority of Partners for Growth’s capital deployed in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as the global private credit fund leans into what it sees as the region’s largest market for growth-stage technology financing. 

The San Francisco-based firm has deployed about $450 million in commitments in the GCC, and “the vast majority of that is in Saudi,” said Armineh Baghoomian, managing director at the firm who also serves as head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech. 

The company was one of the earliest lenders to Saudi fintech unicorn Tabby, and it’s clear the Kingdom is providing fertile territory for ongoing investments.

“We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia,” Baghoomian said. 

Partners for Growth, which Baghoomian described as a global private credit fund focused on “growth debt solutions,” lends to emerging tech and innovation companies, particularly those that struggle to access traditional credit. 

“We’re going into our 22nd year,” she said, tracing the strategy back to its roots in a Bay Area investment bank debt practice in the mid-1980s. 

Today, the firm lends globally, she said, deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years. 

Shariah structures dominate PFG’s Gulf deals 

In the Gulf, the firm’s structures are often shaped by local expectations. “Most of the deals we’ve done in the region are Shariah-compliant,” Baghoomian said. 

“In terms of dollars we’ve deployed, they’re Shariah-structured,” she added. 

“Usually it’s the entrepreneur who requires that, or requests it, and we’re happy to structure it,” Baghoomian said, adding that the firm also views Shariah structures as “a better security position in certain regions.” 

Growth debt steps in where banks cannot 

Baghoomian framed growth debt as a practical complement to equity for companies that have moved beyond the earliest stage but are not yet “bankable.” 

She said: “The lower-cost bank type facilities don’t exist. There’s that gap.”

Baghoomian added that companies want to grow, “but they don’t want to keep selling big chunks of equity. That implies giving up control and ownership.” 

For businesses with the fundamentals private credit providers look for, she said, debt can extend runway while limiting dilution. 

“As long as they have predictable revenue, clear unit economics, and the right assets that can be financed, this is a nice solution to continue their path,” she added. 

That role becomes more pronounced as equity becomes harder to raise at later stages, Baghoomian believes. 

She pointed to a gap that “might be widening” around “series B-plus” fundraising, as later-stage investors become “more discriminating” about which deals they back. 

Asset-heavy fintechs cannot scale on equity alone 

For asset-heavy technology businesses, Baghoomian argued, debt is not just an option but a necessity. 

She pointed to buy-now-pay-later platform Tabby as an example of a model built on funding working capital at scale. 

“Tabby is an asset-heavy business,” she said. “They’re providing installment plans to consumers, but they still need to pay the merchant on day one. That’s capital-intensive. You need a lot of cash to do that.” 

Equity alone, she added, would be structurally inefficient. “You would not want to just raise equity. The founders, employees, everyone would own nothing and lose a lot of control.” 

We don’t target a specific country because of some other mandate. It’s just a larger market in the region, so in the types of deals we’re doing, it ends up weighing heavily to Saudi Arabia.

Armineh Baghoomian, PFG managing director and head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and co-head of global fintech

Baghoomian said those dynamics are common across other asset-intensive models, including lending platforms and businesses that trade in large inventories such as vehicles or property. “Those are businesses that inherently end up having to raise quite a bit of credit,” she said. Partners for Growth’s relationship with Tabby also reflects how early the firm can deploy capital when the structure is asset-backed. “We started with Tabby with $10 million after their seed round, and then we grew, and we continue to be a lender to them,” Baghoomian said. 

“On the asset-backed side, we can go in quite early,” she said. “Most of the fintechs we work with are very early stage, post-seed, and then we’ll grow with them for as long as possible.” 

As the market for private credit expands in the Gulf, Baghoomian emphasized discipline — both for lenders and borrowers. 

For investors assessing startups seeking debt, she said the key is revenue quality and predictability, not just topline growth. “Revenue is one thing, but how predictable is it? How consistent is it? Is it growing?” she said. “This credit is not permanent capital. You have to pay it back. There’s a servicing element to it.” 

Her advice to founders was more blunt: stress-test the downside before taking leverage. 

“You have to do a stress test and ask: if growth slows by 30 to 40 percent, can I still service the debt? Can I still pay back what I’ve taken?” she said. 

Baghoomian warned against chasing the biggest facility on offer. “Sometimes companies compete on how much a lender is providing them,” she said. “We try to teach founders: take as much as you need, but not as much as you can. You have to pay that back.” 

Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business. 

HIGHLIGHTS

• Partners for Growth positions itself as an alternative to banks not only because many growth-stage companies cannot access bank financing, but because it can tailor structures to each business.

• The firm lends globally deploying capital where it sees fit across markets including Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia, as well as Latin America and the GCC, where it has been active for about six years.

One of Partners for Growth’s differentiators, Baghoomian said, is how bespoke its financing is compared with bank products. 

“These facilities are very bespoke. They’re custom to each company and how they need to use the money,” she said, adding that the fund is not offering founders a rigid menu of standardized options. 

“No two deals of ours look alike,” she said, framing that flexibility as especially important at the growth stage, when business needs can shift quickly. 

That customization, she added, extends beyond signing. Baghoomian said the firm aims to structure facilities so companies can actually deploy capital without being constrained, adding: “We don’t want to handcuff you. We don’t want to constrain you in any way.” 

As a company evolves, she said the financing can evolve too, because what works on day one often won’t fit nine months later. 

“We’ll revise structures,” she said, describing flexibility as core to how private credit can serve fast-moving tech businesses. 

She added that a global lender can also bring operating support and market pattern recognition, while still accounting for local nuance. 

Baghoomian expects demand for private credit in the Gulf to keep rising. “They are going to require credit, for sure,” she said, pointing to the scale of new platforms and projects. 

“I don’t see it shrinking,” she said, adding that Partners for Growth is seeing more demand and is in late-stage discussions with several companies, though she declined to name them. 

PFG to stay selective despite rising competition 

Competition among lenders has increased since the firm began deploying in the region, Baghoomian said, calling that “very healthy for the ecosystem.” 

Most of what the firm does in the region is asset-backed, Baghoomian said, often through first warehouse facilities for businesses financing receivables or other tangible exposures, “almost always Shariah.” 

Keeping Egypt on its watchlist 

Beyond the Gulf, Baghoomian said the firm is monitoring Egypt closely, though macroeconomic volatility has delayed deployments. 

“We looked at Egypt very aggressively a few years ago, and then the macro issues changed,” she said, adding that the firm continues to speak with companies in the country and track conditions. 

Even as private credit becomes more common in the region, Baghoomian underscored that debt is not universally appropriate. 

“Not every company should take a loan or credit,” she said. “You don’t take it just to take it. It should be getting you to the next milestone.”