Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the weekly Cabinet session on Tuesday during which he approved the Kingdom’s budget for 2025. SPA
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Updated 26 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Tuesday approved the state budget for fiscal year 2025 with revenues projected at SR1.18 trillion ($315.73 billion) and expenditure at SR1.28 trillion, leading to a deficit of SR101 billion.

The Finance Ministry forecasted Saudi Arabia’s Real GDP growth at 4.6 percent in 2025, up from the 0.8 percent estimate for 2024. This growth will be driven by a rise in non-oil sector activities, according to the statement.

The figures align with projections from the ministry’s pre-budget statement in September, showing a 4 percent decline in revenues, a 4 percent decline in expenditures, and a 12 percent lower deficit compared to the latest FY 2024 estimates.

The FY2025 forecast are based on a baseline scenario, which represents a middle ground between higher and lower revenue projections, taking into account potential changes in economic activity and global petroleum market conditions.

The ministry projects the deficit to remain at similar levels in the medium term, with SR130 billion in 2026 and SR140 billion in 2027, driven by the government’s strategic expansionary spending policies aimed at fostering economic diversification and sustainable growth. Revenues are expected to rise over the next two years, reaching around SR1.3 trillion by 2027.

The Kingdom’s total debt is projected to reach SR1.3 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 29.9 percent of GDP, reflecting a sustainable level to meet financing needs.

Revised projections for Saudi Arabia’s 2024 budget indicate a deficit of SR115 billion, with total debt expected to reach SR1.2 trillion, or 29.3 percent of GDP.

The fiscal year 2025 budget prioritizes maintaining essential services for citizens and residents, while accelerating spending on key projects and sectors.

It focuses on preserving fiscal stability and achieving long-term sustainability by managing government reserves and maintaining sustainable public debt levels, ensuring the Kingdom’s resilience against unforeseen economic shocks.

In a statement following the weekly Cabinet session, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman emphasized the government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the Kingdom’s economic base. “We will continue to work on expanding the economic base and enhancing the Kingdom’s financial position,” he stated.

He also highlighted the pivotal role of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth funds—the Public Investment Fund and the National Development Fund—in driving economic stability and achieving Vision 2030 objectives. “These funds are essential to diversifying the economy and supporting long-term investments,” he said.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is advancing through strategic reforms and robust investment initiatives under Vision 2030, emphasizing diversification and fiscal sustainability.

Key objectives include increasing the private sector’s contribution to GDP, growing the share of foreign investment, and boosting non-oil exports.

The strategy also prioritizes reducing unemployment and accelerating investment growth by enhancing the business environment, providing innovative financing solutions, and attracting regional headquarters of multinational companies to establish a strong presence in the Kingdom.

Key enablers, including the PIF, are driving private sector growth, launching transformative projects, and fostering new industries.

These efforts, outlined in the 2025 budget statement, aim to boost social and economic outcomes while ensuring resilience against global challenges and long-term prosperity.

Breakdown of projected government revenues and expenditures

The ministry projects tax income at SR379 billion in 2025, making up around 32 percent of total revenues. This represents a 4 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates. The majority of these levies, accounting for 77 percent, come from taxes on goods and services.

According to the ministry, this growth is driven by sustained improvements in economic activity, the ongoing development of tax administration, and enhanced collection processes, all of which have contributed to a boost in total tax revenues.

In terms of sector-specific expenditures, the military sector received the largest allocation at SR272 billion, marking a 5 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates.

The health and social development sector followed with a 20.25 percent share amounting to SR260 billion.

General items with 14.95 percent share of 2025 budgeted expenditures will be allocated SR192 billion.

Financing the deficit

The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the National Debt Management Center develops an annual borrowing plan aligned with the Kingdom’s medium-term debt strategy, ensuring long-term debt sustainability.

This strategy not only diversifies financing sources, encompassing both domestic and external markets, but also enhances the Kingdom’s standing in global debt markets.

Additionally, the government is expanding its financing channels by tapping into bond and sukuk issuance, loans, and alternative funding models like project and infrastructure financing, as well as collaborating with export credit agencies.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the Kingdom maintains a robust fiscal position, underpinned by substantial financial reserves and manageable public debt levels.

This fiscal strength provides the government with the ability to manage potential economic shocks and meet its financing needs across short, medium, and long-term horizons, while securing favorable borrowing terms from both domestic and international markets.

The crown prince also reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms that have already improved Saudi Arabia’s credit ratings. While the projected deficit for 2025 signals short-term fiscal challenges, the government is focused on ensuring long-term economic sustainability.

He noted that this year’s budget will continue to prioritize economic diversification, with significant emphasis on empowering the private sector and fostering growth in small and medium-sized enterprises.

The crown prince stressed that, despite global economic uncertainties, Saudi Arabia is well-positioned to navigate external challenges and play an increasingly central role in regional and global economic stability.

“Our economy is well-prepared to overcome challenges,” he said.

He also emphasized the importance of long-term financial planning to maintain momentum on Vision 2030 initiatives, underscoring the government's focus on spending efficiency and transparent execution of the budget to meet its strategic goals.

Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to “Aa3” from “A1” on Friday, highlighting the country’s progress in diversifying its economy beyond oil.

The Kingdom is investing heavily in Vision 2030 initiatives, focusing on sectors like tourism, sports, and manufacturing, while also attracting foreign investment.

Despite lower oil prices and reduced production, Saudi Arabia continues to adjust its spending, delaying or scaling back some Vision 2030 projects while prioritizing others.

Moody’s revised the country’s outlook to stable, reflecting uncertainties in global economic conditions and the oil market. In September, S&P also upgraded Saudi Arabia’s outlook to positive due to strong non-oil growth.


Saudi e-commerce sales using Mada cards hit $53bn in 2024

Updated 07 February 2025
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Saudi e-commerce sales using Mada cards hit $53bn in 2024

  • Year-on-year growth of 25.82%, according to Saudi central bank data
  • Spending power, nation’s economic strength are ‘fueling market growth’

RIYADH: E-commerce sales using Mada cards in Saudi Arabia reached SR197.42 billion ($52.64 billion) in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 25.82 percent, according to data from the Kingdom’s central bank.

Figures released by the institution showed that in December, sales totaled SR19.37 billion, representing a 42.06 percent increase compared to the same month in the previous year.

These figures include payments for online shopping, in-app purchases, and e-wallet transactions, but exclude transactions using credit cards such as Visa and MasterCard.

Mada, the Kingdom’s national payment card system, supports both debit and prepaid services within its network. The cards utilize near-field communication technology for contactless payments, enabling secure transactions at both physical retailers and online.

Mohammed Dhedhi, partner in the consumer and retail practice team at Kearney Middle East and Africa, told Arab News: “The growing spending power in Saudi Arabia, driven by factors such as dual-income households and higher overall economic strength, is fueling market growth.”

He added: “Additionally, the proliferation of NFC-capable devices has significantly boosted the penetration of digital payment channels like Mada, further supporting the shift toward a more digital economy.”

In addition to the surge in sales, the number of e-commerce transactions also experienced a significant rise, increasing by 28.86 percent year-on-year to nearly 1.13 billion transactions in 2024.

December saw a 30.47 percent annual increase, reaching 105.73 million transactions.

According to Dhedhi: “Today, local Mada cards account for over 90 percent of cards issued in the country and over 95 percent of the total transactions made. One of the main reasons for Mada’s popularity is because of how convenient it is to use.”

He added that Mada is widely accepted both in-store and online across Saudi Arabia, providing secure transactions as it is operated by Saudi Payments, a subsidiary of the Saudi Central Bank.

The growing adoption of Mada aligns with the government’s push toward a cashless society, promoting the transition from cash to digital payments.

Dhedhi explained that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly accelerated e-commerce penetration in Saudi Arabia, driving faster digital adoption across various sectors.

This growth was further supported by increased investments from both regional and global players looking to expand their operations.

He noted that in 2022, noon.com opened a Customer Fulfillment Center in Riyadh to improve delivery speed and meet the growing demand from consumers.

Saudi Arabia’s growing spending power, supported by factors including dual-income households and a robust economy, continues to drive market expansion.

At the same time, the widespread adoption of NFC-enabled devices has propelled the use of digital payment solutions like Mada.

As a result, the Kingdom is witnessing a rapid shift toward a more digital economy, with seamless and secure transactions becoming an integral part of the evolving e-commerce landscape.

The rise in e-commerce activity aligns with Saudi Arabia’s goal to make digital transactions account for 80 percent of the retail sector by 2030, with 70 percent conducted online by the same year.

According to the International Trade Administration, the Saudi e-commerce market, valued at $5.15 billion in 2023, accounted for 6 percent of the Kingdom’s $92.6 billion retail market.

Dhedhi said: “To improve online shopping experiences, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Commerce has introduced reforms focusing on refunds, delivery options, and payment choices.”

He added: “These changes aim to address consumer concerns such as unclear warranties, limited delivery coverage, slow complaint resolutions, and delayed refunds. Retailers are now required to submit performance reports and conduct consumer awareness campaigns.”

According to Dhedhi, Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce market growth will be driven primarily by appliances and electronics, which will account for 23 percent of total growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 8 percent from 2024 to 2028.

The fashion sector is expected to contribute 18 percent, also growing at 8 percent CAGR, while health and beauty will make up 14 percent, expanding at a much faster 16 percent CAGR.

The dominance of electronics and appliances reflects a strong demand for advanced technology and gadgets, particularly among younger, tech-savvy consumers.

In addition, the rising popularity of beauty and home care products aligns with an increasing focus on self-care and wellness across the Kingdom.

Meanwhile, the food and beverage segment is projected to experience the highest growth rate at 25 percent CAGR, although its overall market size remains smaller compared to other leading categories, according to Dhedhi.

“The rise in food and beverage e-commerce reflects a growing demand for convenience. Quick commerce has been growing rapidly, and while it historically took players much longer to achieve profitability, the current focus on dark stores and improved unit economics is accelerating this process,” Dhedhi said.

He also noted that while this shift has accelerated growth in the sector, it has also intensified competition. This dynamic ultimately benefits market players in Saudi Arabia by fostering innovation and enhancing service quality.

According to the International Trade Administration, Saudi Arabia’s digital economy is expanding rapidly, driven by substantial government investments and widespread adoption of emerging technologies.

As of 2023, the Kingdom’s Information and Communications Technology sector was the largest and fastest-growing in the Middle East and North Africa region, valued at $40.94 billion and contributing 4.1 percent of gross domestic product, the report stated.

The Kingdom ranked second among G20 countries on the UN International Telecommunication Union’s ICT Development Index in 2023, highlighting its strong digital infrastructure.

Over the past six years, Saudi Arabia has invested $24.8 billion in this area, leading to a 99 percent internet penetration rate and mobile internet speeds of 215 megabits per second, nearly double the global average.

These advancements place the Kingdom among the top 10 countries globally for mobile internet speed, according to the ITA.

Saudi Arabia was an early adopter of 5G technology, with coverage reaching 77 percent of the country — significantly above the global average — and 94 percent in Riyadh, positioning it among the world’s leading cities for 5G accessibility.

This high-speed internet expansion is fueling growth in e-commerce, telecommunications, and digital services, the ITA added.

The number of e-commerce users is projected to reach 34.5 million by 2025, with penetration rising from 66.7 percent in 2023 to 74.7 percent by 2027, according to the report.

Digital payments are also surging, aligning with Vision 2030’s goal of a cashless society. Electronic payments in retail transactions surpassed 57 percent in 2021, exceeding the 55 percent target set by the Financial Sector Development Program.

This shift is expected to further accelerate e-commerce growth, attracting more investment in digital financial services.

Dhedhi said: “Millennials, who constitute around 50 percent of the population, are key drivers of e-commerce growth due to their digital fluency and tech-savviness.”

He added: “Expats, on the other hand, prioritize the delivery experience more than locals and show a strong preference for international brands or diverse product offerings, contributing to a broader assortment in the offerings.”

Dhedhi said quick commerce players are tapping into the demand for fast delivery, affordable subscriptions, and influencer partnerships to target younger consumers.

By offering low delivery costs, they are setting new convenience standards. Chinese e-commerce giants including Shein and Temu have successfully attracted Gen Z and millennials with trendy, affordable products, despite occasional compromises in product quality, he said.

Urbanization and rising female workforce participation are further fueling the shift to online retail, with families increasingly relying on e-commerce for groceries, fashion, and household items.

Dhedhi noted that these demographic shifts are broadening the customer base, diversifying consumer behavior, and fueling the expansion of Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce sector, which plays a pivotal role in the Kingdom’s economic transformation.


Oil Updates — crude set for 3rd straight weekly decline amid tariff concerns

Updated 07 February 2025
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Oil Updates — crude set for 3rd straight weekly decline amid tariff concerns

LONDON: Oil prices rose on Friday after new sanctions were imposed on Iran’s crude exports but were on track for a third straight week of decline, hurt by US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war on China and threats of tariffs on other countries.

Brent crude futures were up 51 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $74.80 a barrel by 3 p.m. Saudi time, but were poised to fall 2.6 percent this week. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 48 cents, or also 0.7 percent, to $71.09 a barrel, down 2.1 percent on a weekly basis.

The US Treasury said on Thursday it was imposing new sanctions on a few individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China, in an incremental move to increase pressure on Tehran.

“Trump has talked about maximum pressure (on Iran). The market takes that quite seriously,” said Michael Haigh, global head of commodities research at Societe Generale. The French bank projects that Iranian oil exports are set to halve.

“The imposition of tariffs and the pauses should be bullish for the oil market because it adds uncertainty. But you haven’t seen this response because of demand concerns. Tariffs and tit for tat responses from nations, it hurts global GDP ... and oil demand,” Haigh added.

Trump had announced a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports as part of a broad plan to improve the US trade balance, but suspended plans to impose steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

“Downside pressure has stemmed from the news flow around tariffs, with concerns over a potential trade war fueling fears of weakening oil demand,” analysts at BMI said in a note on Friday.

Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after Trump repeated a pledge to raise US oil production, unnerving traders a day after the country reported a much bigger-than-anticipated jump in crude stockpiles.

The benchmarks were also under pressure from swelling US crude inventories, which rose sharply last week as demand softened on ongoing refinery maintenance.


PIF’s SIRC, Germany’s Concord Blue to launch first phase of sewage to renewable hydrogen station

Updated 07 February 2025
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PIF’s SIRC, Germany’s Concord Blue to launch first phase of sewage to renewable hydrogen station

  • Both parties will offer innovative solutions that contribute to environmental sustainability and promote the circular carbon economy
  • Plan will see around 100 million tonnes of waste recycled annually

RIYADH: A new agreement between the Saudi Investment Recycling Co. and the German company Concord Blue will lead to the construction of a station in the Kingdom that converts sewage into renewable hydrogen.

The Public Investment Fund firm inked the memorandum of understanding with the engineering company for the first phase of the development, whereby the plant will use Concord Blue Reformer technology to develop sludge treatment projects resulting from sewage and other organic waste, according to a statement.

Concord Blue Reformer’s non-combustion reforming process uses the principles of staged reforming to efficiently and cleanly recycle waste into energy.

This falls in line with SIRC’s goal of actively leading the charge in implementing impactful waste reduction strategies, accelerating the widespread adoption of renewable energy solutions, and championing the principles of environmental justice.

It also aligns with the comprehensive plan announced by the Kingdom’s Ministry of Environment in January 2024, which targets recycling a significant portion — up to 95 percent — of the country’s waste.

“Under this memorandum, SIRC will provide sewage and agricultural waste as raw materials, while Concord Blue will convert this waste into renewable hydrogen, in addition to transferring knowledge in this field and training national cadres to build, operate and maintain facilities for converting waste into hydrogen,” said Faisal Al-Solami, executive vice president of finance and strategic planning at SIRC.

When fully implemented, the plan will see around 100 million tonnes of waste recycled annually, showcasing the nation’s commitment to sustainability.

Under the terms of the newly signed MoU, both parties will offer innovative solutions that contribute to environmental sustainability and promote the circular carbon economy by producing high-quality green hydrogen and manufacturing biochar and industrial-activated coal. 

Al-Solami said signing the agreement is a key step toward achieving Vision 2030’s recycling and sustainability goals, as it promotes environmentally friendly energy solutions from waste, reduces emissions, and supports an eco-conscious economy.

This comes as the first phase of the project will achieve several goals, including reducing the volume of waste sent to landfills, enhancing hydrogen production on a large scale, and developing innovative solutions to reduce carbon emissions.

It will also support local manufacturing projects and contribute to achieving a zero-carbon future by producing clean fuel that supports the transition to a hydrogen economy in the industrial and transportation sectors.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges up to close at 12,433

Updated 06 February 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges up to close at 12,433

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index edged up on Thursday, gaining 19.18 points, or 0.15 percent, to close at 12,433.58. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.88 billion ($1.83 billion), as 123 of the listed stocks advanced, while 96 retreated.  

The MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 2.23 points, or 0.14 percent, to close at 1,545.99. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also rose, gaining 135.68 points, or 0.43 percent, to close at 31,386.27. This comes as 40 of the listed stocks advanced, while 39 retreated. 

The best-performing stock was Almasane Alkobra Mining Co., with its share price surging by 7.49 percent to SR68.9. 

Other top performers included the Thimar Development Holding Co., which saw its share price rise by 5.76 percent to SR56.9, and Makkah Construction and Development Co., which saw a 4.42 percent increase to SR108.60. 

Mutakamela Insurance Co. saw the largest decline of the day, with its share price dropping 2.19 percent to SR18.72. 

The Tanmiah Food Co. saw a decline of 1.99 percent, with its share price dropping to SR127.80, while the Saudi Industrial Investment Group fell by 1.69 percent to SR17.40. 

On the announcements front, Saudi Industrial Investment Group reported its annual financial results for 2024, with net profits reaching SR11 million, matching the previous year’s figure. 

Saudi Arabian Mining Co., known as Ma’aden, also announced the official launch of its US dollar-denominated trust certificates offering.

The offering is available to eligible investors both in Saudi Arabia and internationally, as part of Ma’aden’s strategic initiative to strengthen its financial position and expand investment opportunities. 

To facilitate the issuance, Ma’aden has appointed 10 companies as joint lead managers for the transaction, including Citigroup Global Markets Limited, HSBC Bank, Al Rajhi Capital Co., BNP Paribas, and GIB Capital.

The other five include J.P. Morgan Securities plc, Natixis, Saudi Fransi Capital, SNB Capital Co., and Standard Chartered Bank. 

In a statement to Tadawul, the company stated that the sukuk will be issued in two tranches, with maturities of 5 and 10 years. The minimum subscription amount is set at $200,000, with the final value and terms of the offering to be determined based on market conditions. 

Following the announcement, Ma’aden’s shares closed at SR48.15, up 4.05 percent in today’s session. 


Saudi crown prince launches ‘King Salman Automotive Cluster’ at KAEC

Updated 06 February 2025
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Saudi crown prince launches ‘King Salman Automotive Cluster’ at KAEC

RIYADH: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has named the automotive manufacturing hub within King Abdullah Economic City the “King Salman Automotive Cluster,” the Saudi Press Agency reported on Thursday.

The King Salman Automotive Cluster will serve as a pivotal center for the automotive industry, housing the headquarters and manufacturing facilities for both local and international companies.

Notable brands, such as Ceer—the first Saudi electric vehicle brand—and Lucid Motors, which opened its first international factory in KAEC in 2023, are set to be key players in the cluster.

The site will also host multiple Public Investment Fund joint ventures with global manufacturers, including a highly automated factory with Hyundai Motor for car production in Saudi Arabia and a partnership with Pirelli to establish a tire factory.

This new cluster marks a significant milestone in Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts, supporting the development of the automotive sector and advancing sustainable transportation. It will contribute to boosting the non-oil gross domestic product and increasing exports.

The King Salman Automotive Cluster will accelerate local manufacturing capacity, promote research and development, and optimize supply chains, making them more efficient for both regional and international markets.

The project is expected to create numerous investment opportunities for the private sector, fostering the growth of promising industries within the Kingdom.

By 2035, the cumulative GDP contribution from companies within the cluster is projected to reach approximately SR92 billion.

The cluster will generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs, support local manufacturing, and boost Saudi exports, positively impacting the nation’s balance of payments.

Leveraging KAEC’s robust infrastructure and its strategic location near a well-developed port, the cluster offers significant advantages for both local private sector entities and international companies. These factors will provide ample opportunities for collaboration between partners, suppliers, and investors within the automotive industry and related sectors.

The King Salman Automotive Cluster will play a key role in advancing the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program, which aims to position Saudi Arabia as a leading industrial hub and global logistics center by fostering high-growth sectors and attracting foreign investment.