DUBAI: With World Cup 2026 qualifying’s third round now past its halfway point in Asia, nations are starting to sense whether they will need to renew their passports or begin brainstorming alternative holiday ideas.
None of the Middle East’s nine remaining competitors yet look guaranteed to be boarding a flight to North America, with four crucial fixtures left to fulfill until June 2025.
This four-month gap until play resumes provides an opportune moment for Arab News to assess where the region’s finest stand.
PACKING THEIR BAGS
Iraq (2nd, Group B)
Perennial underachievers look poised to make their global return.
A golden touch from unheralded Spanish boss Jesus Casas saw him debut with victory on home soil in January 2023’s 25th Arabian Gulf Cup. This unifying impact on a fractious national team has extended into a third round from which the Lions of Mesopotamia appear most capable of slotting in behind South Korea as automatic qualifiers from a Group B full of Middle Eastern interest.
Youngsters, such as Ali Jasim and Youssef Amyn, have dovetailed perfectly with experienced campaigners like hulking center forward Ayman Hussein. They will, though, want to wrap up a first World Cup qualification since 1986 before June 2025’s onerous, final double-header against South Korea and Jordan.
LOOKING AT FLIGHTS
UAE (3rd, Group A)
November could not have gone any better for Paulo Bento’s side.
October’s anguish was unequivocally erased with 3-0 victory against Kyrgyzstan and reparative 5-0 thrashing of great-rivals Qatar. Fabio De Lima’s legend status was underlined with four goals against the Qataris, while youthful vigor abounds elsewhere.
Fourth-round progression is almost assured. But, with momentum now on their side, the bigger prize of automatic World Cup entry — for the first time since 1990 — looms when they aim to reel in second-placed Uzbekistan next year.
Jordan (3rd, Group B)
An international break stamped with frustration should not detract from a positive wider picture.
Draws at Iraq (good) and Kuwait (bad) have kept Jordan on the heels of the former-mentioned second-placed side. This further defied pessimism which followed the summer abdication of transformational head coach Hussein Ammouta from the shock 2023 Asian Cup beaten finalists, to the UAE’s Al-Jazira.
With Montpellier’s Musa Al-Taamari and 2023 AFC Player of the Year runner-up Yazan Al-Naimat within their ranks, anything is possible for potential World Cup debutants.
IN FOR THE LONG HAUL
Qatar (4th, Group A)
If Qatar in this cycle make a World Cup via qualification for the first time, they will have done it the hard way.
A rollercoaster November from 2022’s hosts contained the highs of 102nd-minute victory against second-placed Uzbekistan and the depths of their UAE humiliation. That is now 17 goals conceded from six third-round matches — an unsustainable volume even for a nation garlanded by 2023 AFC Player of the Year Akram Afif.
Pressure builds on 2023 Asian Cup orchestrator Tintin Marquez. March’s generous restart against also-rans North Korea and Kyrgyzstan must favorably change their qualifying situation, or a fourth-round lottery awaits.
Oman (4th, Group B)
Bold leadership could yet gain reward for unfancied Oman.
Former Czech Republic manager Jaroslav Silhavy was unceremoniously dumped after September’s pointless third-round start versus predicted automatic qualifiers Iraq and South Korea. A return to Rashid Jaber has, however, kept them in the hunt.
Beat Kuwait on March 25, 2025 and a fourth-round berth will feel increasingly tangible.
Kuwait (5th, Group B)
A glimmer of hope still exists for Kuwait.
Saudi Arabia’s World Cup 2018 supremo Juan Antonio Pizzi has added valuable know-how into a squad still finding its feet after iconic forward Bader Al-Mutawa’s 2022 international retirement.
Repetition of 1982’s World Cup qualification remains a distinct long shot. If a fourth-round spot is secured, however, they will look back on a pair of 1-1 draws against fancied Jordan as pivotal.
Saudi Arabia (4th, Group C)
A demanding Group C was never going to be easy.
But, few expected the six-time World Cup qualifiers would find themselves in such peril.
Last month’s decision to ditch Roberto Mancini and rehire Herve Renard generated just one point from testing visits to Australia and Indonesia. Even Palestine (four goals) and North Korea (five goals) have outscored the Green Falcons (three goals) throughout this concerning third round.
A clean bill of health for Al-Hilal talisman Salem Al-Dawsari cannot come soon enough, while replication would be welcome on the international stage of 20-year-old winger Marwan Al-Sahafi’s eye-catching scoring exploits on loan at Belgium’s Beerschot.
If the debonair Renard can solve these chronic attacking issues against China and runaway leaders Japan in March, a compact pool — second to sixth are separated by one point — still offers substantial hope.
Bahrain (5th, Group C)
It has been a nerve-fraying experience for Bahrain fans in the third round.
Decisive goals from 89 minutes+ have been produced during four of their six qualifiers. From this maelstrom, The Reds — somehow — remain firmly in contention for either automatic World Cup progression or a fourth-round slot.
The visit to an impassioned Indonesia on March 25, 2025 looks key.
MAKING OTHER PLANS
Palestine (6th, Group B)
It is remarkable — and utterly commendable — that Palestine have made it this far.
Makram Daboub’s men continue to perform heroically despite war in Gaza, with South Korea and Tottenham Hotspur superstar Son Heung-min stating this month “we can all learn from” their preparations after a heroic 1-1 draw. This was the second time they have held Group B’s giant.
Charleroi forward Oday Dabbagh and his teammates keep believing, even while being forced to play away from home. But, they appear just short of the necessary quality.
