Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

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Updated 17 November 2024
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Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

  • Political consultants believe president-elect’s rapport with Israeli PM positions him uniquely to influence regional dynamics
  • Jeff Davis and Thom Serafin unpacked the ramifications of the US election results on The Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO: The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States is expected to open pathways to peace in the Middle East, according to predictions from two prominent political consultants from both the Republican and Democratic parties.

Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc., and Democratic consultant Thom Serafin suggested on Thursday that Trump’s leverage and strong relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could facilitate a ceasefire with the Palestinians and potentially pave the way for support from Saudi support.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)

Appearing on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, both consultants agreed that Trump’s rapport with the Israeli leadership and his previous initiatives in the region, including the Abraham Accords, position him uniquely to influence Middle East dynamics.

“(Trump) is well respected, especially in Israel. When he was president last time, Jerusalem became the capital,” Serafin said. “There’s a lot of good blood there. He thought they were coming to an accord where they would have the long-term peace at the time.”

Trump’s first term saw the official US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, marked by the controversial relocation of the US Embassy in 2018. Concurrently, he spearheaded the Abraham Accords, paving the way for normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and later Morocco.




This photo taken on September 15, 2020, shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (3R) and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan with the historic Abraham Accords document at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

Although these accords encountered resistance from some neighboring Arab nations, they laid the groundwork for potential US-mediated discussions between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. However, that prospect was cut short following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel and the subsequent escalation in Gaza, dashing hopes for a new era of Middle East peace and stability.

“Everything blew up on Oct. 7 when they were, (rather) they thought they were getting very, very close (to a deal). But you need somebody who’s full-time there and goes toe to toe with Netanyahu. And I think Trump is the guy who could do that,” he said.

Serafin, who has an extensive background in media and political consultancy, having worked as press secretary on several US Senate election campaigns and served on the staffs of Senator Alan Dixon and Representative Dan Rostenkowski, highlighted the significance of the hostages held by Hamas as a key element in negotiating peace with regional powers, including Iran and its proxies.




In this photo taken on October 24, 2024, relatives of hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Palestinian militants during the October 7, 2023 attacks protest outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in central Jerusalem, calling for action to release the hostages. (AFP)

“If he’s capable of reaching the Israelis, and I think he is, that’s the key,” he said. “If you can get Israel to be accommodating to what he needs to do, you can bring peace, at least ceasefire, to that part of the world.”

Since October last year, escalating violence in the Middle East has spread from Gaza to Lebanon, drawing diplomats worldwide into urgent efforts to mediate a solution.

INNUMBERS

• 2,600 Trump’s margin of victory over Harris in Arab-majority Michigan suburb of Dearborn.

• 17,400 Joe Biden’s margin of victory over Trump in the same city in 2020.

The conflict, driven by clashes involving Iran-backed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, has seen limited restraint from Israeli officials, further fueling tensions. This crisis has also taken center stage in the US election season, especially among Arab Americans some of whom view the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the situation as a betrayal, given their community’s crucial support for the Democrats’ 2020 win.

Davis noted that while many Arab Americans declined to endorse Harris due to her stance on the conflict, Trump garnered substantial support within the community resulting in his re-election on Tuesday, but still has “some way to go” to fully solidify these ties.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, right, looks on as local Muslim leaders speak during a campaign rally on Oct. 26, 2024, in Novi, Michigan. (AP)

He pointed to Michigan’s Arab-majority Dearborn as a case in point, where Trump won 42.5 percent of the Arab American vote compared to Harris’s 36.3 percent. Notably, anti-war critic Dr. Jill Stein drew 18.3 percent in the area, reflecting broader discontent within the community.

“Let’s talk about Michigan a little bit. Because of the population centers in Michigan being Arab American and how Trump did well there. And he did well there, but he won those areas,” Davis said.

Analyzing data from Dearborn, he noted that Trump still has ground to cover with the Arab American community, acknowledging that Stein’s appeal in Dearborn was significantly stronger than her national average.

Davis, a seasoned Republican strategist who has advised campaigns across several battleground states, emphasized that although Stein’s Green Party did not reach the 5 percent threshold needed for major party status, Trump’s support within the Arab American community was bolstered by endorsements from figures like former Democrat Dr. Bishara Bahbah and Dr. Massad Boulos, father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, second right, greets local Muslim leaders during a campaign rally in Novi, Michigan on Oct. 26, 2024. (AP)

Both Davis and Serafin noted that Trump made unexpected inroads into traditional Democratic voter bases, securing 45 percent of the Hispanic vote and nearly 27 percent of the Black vote. Surprising many experts, Trump’s success in gaining support from key demographics enabled him to outpace Harris in critical swing states. However, the two consultants emphasized that Harris’s primary setback was her struggle to connect with voters on a personal level.

“I recall that old phrase, ‘I feel your pain.’ She did not exhibit that on the campaign trail,” Serafin said. “She had the joy and all these other things, but ironically, she wasn’t feeling the pain of the average voter that was struggling.”

He argued that Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation.




Democratic consultant Thom Serafin believes Vice President Kamala Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation. (Supplied)

“Everything I learned in college, over the last 50 years, 60 years in life, is (that) inflation is the hidden pain, hidden taxation. You know, all of a sudden you get your hundred-dollars paycheck every week, but the bills are getting higher and higher. You just can’t meet ends,” Serafin added.

Polling throughout the campaign, including an Arab News/YouGov survey, consistently highlighted economic concerns as top priorities for voters, also among Arab Americans, who indicated them as nearly on par with foreign policy issues in the Middle East.

Davis and Serafin also contended that media coverage frequently misrepresented Trump’s statements, including attributing to him a comedian’s reference to Puerto Rico as a “garbage island,” or claims that Trump suggested aiming guns at Liz Cheney.




Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc. (Supplied)

In reality, Trump was not present when the comedian made his remark, and his statements on Cheney referred to her lack of military experience, not an incitement to violence.

The consultants also said that Democratic efforts to emphasize Trump’s legal battles, many of which originated from the Democrat-led Department of Justice, further deepened the polarization, arguably contributing to his game. Trump currently faces multiple felony charges related to fraud, election interference and obstruction.

“Every time they called him the felon, I thought to myself, what a mistake. Because everybody knows he’s only a felon because the Democrats wanted him to be one. It wasn’t because he was legitimately a felon,” Serafin said. “And, so, I thought that was always a mistake when she called him that way and some other people. After a while, they stopped doing that because they probably tested that term, and it was backfiring.”




T-shirts on display for sale at a shopping mall in Las Vegas, Nevada, on November 6, 2024, including one reading "I vote for the convicted felon", the day after former US President Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election. (AFP)

Both Davis and Serafin believe these cases may be dismissed, setting the stage for another four years under Trump’s leadership — one that will inherit a divided domestic landscape and face the immense challenge of upholding his promise to end the conflict that has claimed nearly 50,000 lives, while working toward the peace and stability long desired in the Middle East.

Serafin and Davis shared their insights on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, aired Thursday on the US Arab Radio Network in Michigan and sponsored by Arab News.

For more information or to listen to past shows, visit ArabNews.com/rayradioshow.

 


Turkish court jails protesters over Erdogan speech disruption

Updated 56 min 25 sec ago
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Turkish court jails protesters over Erdogan speech disruption

  • The protesters said the government was failing to uphold its pro-Palestinian rhetoric
  • The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said the group had coordinated their actions inside and outside the venue and sought their detention pending trial

ANKARA: A Turkish court has jailed pending trial nine protesters who disrupted President Tayyip Erdogan’s speech in Istanbul last week, accusing his government of continuing oil exports to Israel despite a publicized embargo.
The incident occurred during Erdogan’s televised address at a forum on Friday, where the protesters said the government was failing to uphold its pro-Palestinian rhetoric.
They chanted slogans such as “Ships are carrying bombs to Gaza” and “Stop fueling genocide.”
Erdogan responded sharply.
“My child, don’t become the mouthpiece of Zionists here. No matter how much you try to provoke by acting as their voice, mouth, and eyes, you will not succeed,” he said.
“Zionists around the world know very well where Tayyip Erdogan stands. But it seems you still haven’t understood.”
Police removed the demonstrators from the event, and prosecutors charged them with insulting the president and participating in an illegal demonstration.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said the group had coordinated their actions inside and outside the venue and sought their detention pending trial.
The arrests have drawn strong criticism from opposition politicians and rights advocates. Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel denounced the detentions as a blow to democracy.
“The decision to arrest nine young people who protested Tayyip Erdogan proves the grave situation our country’s democracy has fallen into,” Ozel said.
“These young people were exercising their right to free expression and should be released immediately.”


Israeli leaders applaud Trump pledge on hostages, Gazans fear the worse

Updated 03 December 2024
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Israeli leaders applaud Trump pledge on hostages, Gazans fear the worse

  • Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said: “This is the way to bring back the hostages: by increasing the pressure and the costs for Hamas and its supporters“
  • Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said simply on X: “Thank you President Trump“

JERUSALEM/CAIRO: Israeli leaders hailed on Tuesday a pledge by US President-elect Donald Trump that there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East unless hostages held in the Gaza Strip were released ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration.
The reaction in Gaza was less enthusiastic.
Writing on Truth Social, and without naming any group, Trump said the hostages had to be freed by the time he was sworn in.
If his demand was not met, he said: “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America.”
During their deadly 2023 attack on Israel, Hamas-led militants captured more than 250 people. Some have been released or freed but around half of them are still in Gaza, although at least a third of these are believed to be dead.
Israeli ministers lined up to thank Trump for his hard-hitting words.
“How refreshing it is to hear clear and morally sound statements that do not create a false equivalence or call for addressing ‘both sides’, but rather clarify who are the good and who are the bad,” said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
“This is the way to bring back the hostages: by increasing the pressure and the costs for Hamas and its supporters, and defeating them, rather than giving in to their absurd demands.”
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said simply on X: “Thank you President Trump.”
Likewise the families of the missing hostages expressed their gratitude. “It is now evident to all: the time has come. We must bring them home NOW,” the families forum said.

NEGOTIATIONS STALLED
Israel and Hamas have held on-off negotiations since October 2023, but after an initial hostage release in November, little progress has been made with both sides blaming each other.
Responding to Trump’s post, senior Hamas official Basem Naim said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sabotaged all efforts to secure a deal that involved exchanging the hostages for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons.
“Therefore, we understand (Trump’s) message is directed first at Netanyahu and his government to end this evil game,” he told Reuters.
Gaza political analyst Ramiz Moghani said Trump’s threat was directed at both Hamas and its backer Iran, and warned that it would embolden Israel to not expel Palestinians from swathes of Gaza but also annex the nearby, Israeli-occupied West Bank.
“These statements have serious implications for the Israeli war in Gaza and the West Bank,” he told Reuters.
Mohammed Dahlan, like hundreds of thousands of Gazans, has had to flee his house because of the fighting and is desperate for the war to end. But he said he was shocked by Trump.
“We were hoping that the new administration would bring with it a breakthrough .... but it seems (Trump) is in complete agreement with the Israeli administration and that there are apparently more punitive measures ahead,” he said.


Israel kills 23 people in north Gaza, orders evacuations in south

Updated 03 December 2024
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Israel kills 23 people in north Gaza, orders evacuations in south

  • Medics said eight people had been killed in a series of airstrikes in Beit Lahiya while four others were killed elsewhere in Gaza City
  • An Israeli airstrike later killed two people and wounded others in Jabalia

CAIRO: Israeli military strikes killed at least 23 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, most of them in the town of Beit Lahiya on the northern edge, medics said, as the army issued new evacuation orders in the south of the small enclave.
Medics said eight people had been killed in a series of airstrikes in Beit Lahiya while four others were killed elsewhere in Gaza City.
An Israeli airstrike later killed two people and wounded others in Jabalia, the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps, in the coastal enclave’s north, medics said.
Another air attack, on Al-Falah School sheltering displaced families in Gaza City’s Zeitoun suburb, killed six people and wounded others, medics said, while in Rafah in the far south, three women were killed by Israeli drone fire, they added.
The Israeli army has been operating in Jabalia and also in the towns of Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun since October. Israeli forces have killed hundreds of militants in the three locations since the operation began, the army has said.
The army says it is targeting regrouping Hamas-led militants who often use civilian buildings including schools and hospitals for operational cover. Hamas denies this, accusing Israeli forces of indiscriminate bombardments.
Hamas and its smaller ally Islamic Jihad have said their fighters have killed several Israeli soldiers in guerrilla-style ambushes since October.
Palestinians have accused Israel’s army of trying to drive people from the northern edge of Gaza with forced evacuations and bombardments to create a buffer zone. The army denies this, saying it has returned there to prevent Hamas fighters from renewing operations in an area from which they had been cleared.
The Palestinian Civil Emergency Service said its operations in Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun had now been halted for nearly four weeks due to Israeli attacks on their teams as well as fuel shortages.
On Tuesday it said 13 of 27 vehicles in central and southern Gaza were also stuck for lack of fuel. It said 88 members of the Civil Emergency Service had been killed, 304 wounded and 21 detained by Israel since the
war began in October 2023.

EVACUATION ORDERS
The Israeli army issued evacuation orders on Tuesday to residents in northern districts of Khan Younis, a city in south Gaza, citing the firing of rockets by militants from those areas. The orders, the latest of many, prompted the hurried exodus of families, mostly before dawn, in a westerly direction.
“For your own safety, you must evacuate the area immediately and move to the humanitarian zone,” the army said in a statement on X.
Palestinian and United Nations officials say there are no safe areas in the enclave. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been internally displaced, some as many as 10 times in all.
Israel launched its campaign in the densely populated enclave after Hamas-led fighters attacked Israeli communities across the border on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s military campaign has since killed more than 44,400 Palestinians, injured many others, and reduced much of the enclave to rubble.


Retiring UN official laments lack of diplomatic focus on Palestinian state

Updated 03 December 2024
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Retiring UN official laments lack of diplomatic focus on Palestinian state

  • Tor Wennesland, special coordinator for Mideast peace process, criticizes short-term fixes
  • Warns against opponents of Palestinian sovereignty setting terms of debate

LONDON: World leaders have wrongly focused on short-term fixes at the expense of pushing for a Palestinian state, the UN’s special coordinator for the Middle East peace process has said.

Tor Wennesland, who is retiring after a four-year tenure, told the New York Times that the international community had focused on improving Gaza’s economy and diplomatic deals between Israel and Arab states, but that these approaches have failed to solve the central issue driving the conflict: the lack of a permanent settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.

“Politics failed. Diplomacy failed. The international community failed. And the parties failed,” he said. “What we have seen is the failure of dealing with the real conflict, the failure of politics and diplomacy.”

Western leaders have failed to convince Israel of the need for Palestinian sovereignty, having been distracted by migration crises, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Wennesland added.

“Politics is what ends war, and diplomacy is what ends war,” he said, adding that international attention has been shifting “toward dealing with the day-to-day humanitarian situation, and with less attention on the politics.”

The perceived decline in the viability of the two-state solution among Western officials risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as it allows opponents of Palestinian statehood to set the terms of debate, Wennesland said.

“The spoilers have been more effective, determined and fast moving than diplomats and politicians,” he added.


UN chief slams ‘systematic’ looting of Gaza humanitarian aid

Updated 03 December 2024
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UN chief slams ‘systematic’ looting of Gaza humanitarian aid

  • Aid distribution in Gaza is complicated by shortages of fuel, war-damaged roads and looting
  • On Monday, Gaza’s interior ministry said it had carried out a major operation targeting looters
UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations chief on Tuesday denounced the “systematic” looting of humanitarian aid in Gaza, a day after the territory’s Hamas authorities said 20 people were killed in a security operation targeting such actions.
“Armed looting has become systematic and must end immediately. It is hindering life saving aid operations and further endangering the lives of our staff,” said Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
“However, the use of law enforcement operations must be lawful, necessary and proportionate.”
Israel imposed a total siege on Gaza in the early stages of the war last year, and the UN warned on November 9 that famine was looming in some areas due to a lack of aid.
Aid distribution in Gaza is complicated by shortages of fuel, war-damaged roads and looting, as well as fighting in densely populated areas and the repeated displacement of much of the territory’s 2.4 million people.
Several humanitarian officials have told AFP on condition of anonymity that almost half the aid that enters Gaza is looted, especially basic supplies.
On Monday, Gaza’s interior ministry said it had carried out a major operation targeting looters.
“More than 20 members of gangs involved in stealing aid trucks were killed in a security operation carried out by security forces in cooperation with tribal committees,” the ministry said in a statement.
It said the operation was “the beginning of a broad security campaign that has been long planned and will expand to include everyone involved in the theft of aid trucks.”
On Tuesday, the US-based Washington Post newspaper cited a UN memo as saying some of the gangs were receiving “passive if not active benevolence” or “protection” from the Israel Defense Forces.
Dujarric said he was unaware of the memo, but that the allegation was “fairly alarming” if true.
“The idea that the Israeli forces may be allowing looters or not doing enough to prevent it is frankly, fairly alarming, given the responsibilities of Israel as the occupying power to ensure that humanitarian aid is distributed safely,” he said.