Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

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Updated 17 November 2024
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Will re-election of Donald Trump open pathways to Middle East peace?

  • Political consultants believe president-elect’s rapport with Israeli PM positions him uniquely to influence regional dynamics
  • Jeff Davis and Thom Serafin unpacked the ramifications of the US election results on The Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO: The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States is expected to open pathways to peace in the Middle East, according to predictions from two prominent political consultants from both the Republican and Democratic parties.

Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc., and Democratic consultant Thom Serafin suggested on Thursday that Trump’s leverage and strong relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could facilitate a ceasefire with the Palestinians and potentially pave the way for support from Saudi support.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)

Appearing on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, both consultants agreed that Trump’s rapport with the Israeli leadership and his previous initiatives in the region, including the Abraham Accords, position him uniquely to influence Middle East dynamics.

“(Trump) is well respected, especially in Israel. When he was president last time, Jerusalem became the capital,” Serafin said. “There’s a lot of good blood there. He thought they were coming to an accord where they would have the long-term peace at the time.”

Trump’s first term saw the official US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, marked by the controversial relocation of the US Embassy in 2018. Concurrently, he spearheaded the Abraham Accords, paving the way for normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and later Morocco.




This photo taken on September 15, 2020, shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (3R) and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan with the historic Abraham Accords document at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

Although these accords encountered resistance from some neighboring Arab nations, they laid the groundwork for potential US-mediated discussions between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. However, that prospect was cut short following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel and the subsequent escalation in Gaza, dashing hopes for a new era of Middle East peace and stability.

“Everything blew up on Oct. 7 when they were, (rather) they thought they were getting very, very close (to a deal). But you need somebody who’s full-time there and goes toe to toe with Netanyahu. And I think Trump is the guy who could do that,” he said.

Serafin, who has an extensive background in media and political consultancy, having worked as press secretary on several US Senate election campaigns and served on the staffs of Senator Alan Dixon and Representative Dan Rostenkowski, highlighted the significance of the hostages held by Hamas as a key element in negotiating peace with regional powers, including Iran and its proxies.




In this photo taken on October 24, 2024, relatives of hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Palestinian militants during the October 7, 2023 attacks protest outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in central Jerusalem, calling for action to release the hostages. (AFP)

“If he’s capable of reaching the Israelis, and I think he is, that’s the key,” he said. “If you can get Israel to be accommodating to what he needs to do, you can bring peace, at least ceasefire, to that part of the world.”

Since October last year, escalating violence in the Middle East has spread from Gaza to Lebanon, drawing diplomats worldwide into urgent efforts to mediate a solution.

INNUMBERS

• 2,600 Trump’s margin of victory over Harris in Arab-majority Michigan suburb of Dearborn.

• 17,400 Joe Biden’s margin of victory over Trump in the same city in 2020.

The conflict, driven by clashes involving Iran-backed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, has seen limited restraint from Israeli officials, further fueling tensions. This crisis has also taken center stage in the US election season, especially among Arab Americans some of whom view the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the situation as a betrayal, given their community’s crucial support for the Democrats’ 2020 win.

Davis noted that while many Arab Americans declined to endorse Harris due to her stance on the conflict, Trump garnered substantial support within the community resulting in his re-election on Tuesday, but still has “some way to go” to fully solidify these ties.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, right, looks on as local Muslim leaders speak during a campaign rally on Oct. 26, 2024, in Novi, Michigan. (AP)

He pointed to Michigan’s Arab-majority Dearborn as a case in point, where Trump won 42.5 percent of the Arab American vote compared to Harris’s 36.3 percent. Notably, anti-war critic Dr. Jill Stein drew 18.3 percent in the area, reflecting broader discontent within the community.

“Let’s talk about Michigan a little bit. Because of the population centers in Michigan being Arab American and how Trump did well there. And he did well there, but he won those areas,” Davis said.

Analyzing data from Dearborn, he noted that Trump still has ground to cover with the Arab American community, acknowledging that Stein’s appeal in Dearborn was significantly stronger than her national average.

Davis, a seasoned Republican strategist who has advised campaigns across several battleground states, emphasized that although Stein’s Green Party did not reach the 5 percent threshold needed for major party status, Trump’s support within the Arab American community was bolstered by endorsements from figures like former Democrat Dr. Bishara Bahbah and Dr. Massad Boulos, father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany.




Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, second right, greets local Muslim leaders during a campaign rally in Novi, Michigan on Oct. 26, 2024. (AP)

Both Davis and Serafin noted that Trump made unexpected inroads into traditional Democratic voter bases, securing 45 percent of the Hispanic vote and nearly 27 percent of the Black vote. Surprising many experts, Trump’s success in gaining support from key demographics enabled him to outpace Harris in critical swing states. However, the two consultants emphasized that Harris’s primary setback was her struggle to connect with voters on a personal level.

“I recall that old phrase, ‘I feel your pain.’ She did not exhibit that on the campaign trail,” Serafin said. “She had the joy and all these other things, but ironically, she wasn’t feeling the pain of the average voter that was struggling.”

He argued that Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation.




Democratic consultant Thom Serafin believes Vice President Kamala Harris’ lack of empathy during the campaign failed to fully address concerns around the economy and rising inflation. (Supplied)

“Everything I learned in college, over the last 50 years, 60 years in life, is (that) inflation is the hidden pain, hidden taxation. You know, all of a sudden you get your hundred-dollars paycheck every week, but the bills are getting higher and higher. You just can’t meet ends,” Serafin added.

Polling throughout the campaign, including an Arab News/YouGov survey, consistently highlighted economic concerns as top priorities for voters, also among Arab Americans, who indicated them as nearly on par with foreign policy issues in the Middle East.

Davis and Serafin also contended that media coverage frequently misrepresented Trump’s statements, including attributing to him a comedian’s reference to Puerto Rico as a “garbage island,” or claims that Trump suggested aiming guns at Liz Cheney.




Republican strategist Jeff Davis, president of Victory Media Inc. (Supplied)

In reality, Trump was not present when the comedian made his remark, and his statements on Cheney referred to her lack of military experience, not an incitement to violence.

The consultants also said that Democratic efforts to emphasize Trump’s legal battles, many of which originated from the Democrat-led Department of Justice, further deepened the polarization, arguably contributing to his game. Trump currently faces multiple felony charges related to fraud, election interference and obstruction.

“Every time they called him the felon, I thought to myself, what a mistake. Because everybody knows he’s only a felon because the Democrats wanted him to be one. It wasn’t because he was legitimately a felon,” Serafin said. “And, so, I thought that was always a mistake when she called him that way and some other people. After a while, they stopped doing that because they probably tested that term, and it was backfiring.”




T-shirts on display for sale at a shopping mall in Las Vegas, Nevada, on November 6, 2024, including one reading "I vote for the convicted felon", the day after former US President Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election. (AFP)

Both Davis and Serafin believe these cases may be dismissed, setting the stage for another four years under Trump’s leadership — one that will inherit a divided domestic landscape and face the immense challenge of upholding his promise to end the conflict that has claimed nearly 50,000 lives, while working toward the peace and stability long desired in the Middle East.

Serafin and Davis shared their insights on The Ray Hanania Radio Show, aired Thursday on the US Arab Radio Network in Michigan and sponsored by Arab News.

For more information or to listen to past shows, visit ArabNews.com/rayradioshow.

 


Fire at Jordan nursing home kills 6 residents, injures dozens

Updated 9 sec ago
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Fire at Jordan nursing home kills 6 residents, injures dozens

  • An investigation was being conducted to identify the cause of the blaze

AMMAN: Six residents died and dozens were injured after a fire broke out a nursing home in Jordan, state news agency Petra reported.

The fire at the White Beds Society’s, or Al-Asirra Al-Baydaa, elderly home killed six elderly, badly injuring five and moderately injuring fifty-five more, according to Wafa Bani Mustafa, Minister of Social Development.

The fire spread engulfed the entire 80-square-meter center, which houses 111 people, the minister added.

The injured were taken to government hospitals for treatment, while the remaining elderly were moved to other centers.

An investigation was being conducted to identify the cause of the blaze, the minister said.


Russia in contact with Syrian militants, hopes to keep military bases, Interfax reports

Updated 13 December 2024
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Russia in contact with Syrian militants, hopes to keep military bases, Interfax reports

  • Contacts with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham are ‘proceeding in constructive fashion’

MOSCOW Russia has established direct contact with the political committee of Syria’s Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the Interfax news agency quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as saying on Thursday.

Interfax reported that Bogdanov, speaking to journalists, also said Moscow aimed to maintain its military bases in Syria.

Bogdanov said contacts with HTS, the most powerful force in the country after the overthrow of President Bashar Assad, were “proceeding in constructive fashion.”

Russia, he said, hoped the group would fulfil its pledges to “guard against all excesses,” maintain order and ensure the safety of diplomats and other foreigners.

Bogdanov said Russia hoped to maintain its two bases in Syria – a naval base in Tartous and the Khmeimim Air Base near the port city of Latakia – to keep up efforts against international terrorism.

“The bases are still there, where they were on Syrian territory. No other decisions have been made for the moment,” he was quoted as saying.

“They were there at the Syrians’ request with the aim of fighting terrorists from the Islamic State. I am proceeding on the basis of the notion that everyone agrees that the fight against terrorism, and what remains of IS, is not over.”

Maintaining that fight, he said, “requires collective efforts and in this connection, our presence and the Khmeimim base played an important role in the context of the overall fight against international terrorism.”

Another Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Vershinin, and the UN’s special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, called for measures to destabilize the situation in and around Syria, according to a statement on the foreign ministry’s website.

The statement said the two diplomats discussed by telephone finding a political settlement in a way to be determined by the Syrian people and ensuring Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.


Syria’s militant victors expose ousted government’s drug trade

Updated 13 December 2024
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Syria’s militant victors expose ousted government’s drug trade

DAMASCUS: The dramatic collapse of Bashar Assad’s Syrian regime has thrown light into the dark corners of his rule, including the industrial-scale export of the banned drug captagon.

Victorious Islamist-led fighters have seized military bases and distribution hubs for the amphetamine-type stimulant, which has flooded the black market across the Middle East.

Led by the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group, the militants say they found a vast haul of drugs and vowed to destroy them.

On Wednesday, HTS fighters allowed AFP journalists into a warehouse at a quarry on the outskirts of Damascus, where captagon pills were concealed inside electrical components for export.

“After we entered and did a sweep, and we found that this is a factory for Maher Assad and his partner Amer Khiti,” said black-masked fighter Abu Malek Al-Shami.

Maher Assad was a military commander and the deposed strongman’s brother, now presumed on the run. He is widely accused of being the power behind the lucrative captagon trade.

Syrian politician Khiti was placed under sanction in 2023 by the British government, which said he “controls multiple businesses in Syria which facilitate the production and smuggling of drugs.”

In a cavernous garage beneath the warehouse and loading bays, thousands of dusty beige captagon pills were packed into the copper coils of brand new household voltage stabilizers.

“We found a large number of devices that were stuffed with packages of captagon pills meant to be smuggled out of the country. It’s a huge quantity. It’s impossible to tell,” Shami said.

Above, in the warehouse, crates of cardboard boxes stood ready to allow the traffickers to disguise their cargo as pallet-loads of standard goods, alongside sacks and sacks of caustic soda.

Caustic soda, or sodium hydroxide, is a key ingredient in the production of methamphetamine, another stimulant.

Assad fell at the weekend to a lightning HTS offensive, but the revenue from selling captagon propped up Assad’s government throughout Syria’s 13 years of civil war.

Captagon turned Syria into the world’s largest narco state. It became by far Syria’s biggest export, dwarfing all its legal exports put together, according to estimates drawn from official data by AFP during a 2022 investigation.

The warehouse haul was massive, but smaller and still impressive stashes of captagon have also turned up in military facilities associated with units under Maher Assad’s command.

Journalists from AFP this week found a bonfire of captagon pills on the grounds of the Mazzeh air base, now in the hands of HTS fighters who descended on the capital Damascus from the north.

Behind the smoldering heap, in a ransacked air force building, more captagon lay alongside other illicit exports, including off-brand Viagra impotence remedies and poorly-forged $100 bills.

“As we entered the area we found a huge quantity of captagon. So we destroyed it and burned it. It’s a huge amount, brother,” said an HTS fighter using the nom de guerre “Khattab.”

“We destroyed and burned it because it’s harmful to people. It harms nature and people and humans.”

Khattab also stressed that HTS, which has formed a transitional government to replace the collapsed administration, does not want to harm its neighbors by exporting the drug — a trade worth billions of dollars.


UN says 1.1 million newly displaced in Syria since offensive that toppled Assad

Updated 13 December 2024
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UN says 1.1 million newly displaced in Syria since offensive that toppled Assad

BEIRUT: The United Nations humanitarian agency said Thursday that more than a million people, mostly women and children, had been newly displaced in Syria since militants launched an offensive ousting President Bashar Assad.
“As of 12 December, 1.1 million people have been newly displaced across the country since the start of the escalation of hostilities on 27 November. The majority are women and children,” the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in a statement.


Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 58, hit flour trucks

Updated 13 December 2024
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Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 58, hit flour trucks

  • Around 30 people, most of them children, were wounded in the two strikes

GAZA STRIP: Gaza’s civil defense agency said a series of Israeli air strikes on Thursday killed at least 58 people, including 12 guards securing aid trucks, while the military said it targeted militants planning to hijack the vehicles.
The latest bloodshed came despite growing optimism that negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release deal might finally succeed, with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan saying on Thursday that the regional “context” had changed in favor of an agreement.
Seven guards were killed in a strike in Rafah, in southern Gaza, while another attack left five guards dead in nearby Khan Yunis, agency spokesman Mahmud Basal said.
“The (Israeli) occupation once again targeted those securing the aid trucks,” Basal told AFP, though the military said it “does not strike humanitarian aid trucks.”
Basal added that around 30 people, most of them children, were wounded in the two strikes.
“The trucks carrying flour were on their way to UNRWA warehouses,” Basal noted, referring to the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees.
Witnesses later told AFP that residents looted flour from the trucks after the strikes.
The military said its forces “conducted precise strikes” overnight on armed Hamas militants present in an Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza.
“All of the terrorists that were eliminated were members of Hamas and planned to violently hijack humanitarian aid trucks and transfer them to Hamas in support of continuing terrorist activity,” a military statement said.
The United Nations and aid agencies have repeatedly warned about the acute humanitarian crisis in the besieged Gaza Strip, exacerbated by the war that has persisted for more than 14 months.
“Conditions for people across the Gaza Strip are appalling and apocalyptic,” UNRWA spokeswoman Louise Wateridge told journalists during a visit to Nuseirat in central Gaza.
She added that life-saving aid to “besieged areas in north Gaza governorate has been largely blocked” since the Israeli military launched a sweeping assault there in early October.
In southern Gaza, UNRWA said earlier this week it had successfully delivered enough food aid for 200,000 people.
But on Thursday it said “a serious incident” meant that only one truck out of a convoy of 70 traveling along Gaza’s southern border reached its destination.
The agency did not provide any details on the incident, but called on “all parties to ensure safe, unimpeded and uninterrupted” aid deliveries.
As diplomacy aimed at ending the war appeared to be gaining pace again, the violence continued.
The civil defense agency said Israeli air strikes on two homes, near Nuseirat refugee camp — which was again hit later in the evening — and Gaza City killed 21 people.
Fifteen people, at least six of them children, died “as a result of an Israeli bombing” of a building sheltering displaced people near Nuseirat, Bassal said.
Bassam Al-Habash, a relative of the dead in Nuseirat said: “These people are innocent, they are not wanted. They have nothing to do with the war.”
“They are civilians, and this is not a war between two armies, but a war armed with weapons, planes and Western support against a defenseless people who own nothing.”
Another strike late on Thursday killed at least 25 people and wounded 50 others in the Nuseirat refugee camp, the civil defense said.
In the latest diplomatic effort to secure an end to the violence, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on Wednesday calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.
The non-binding resolution was rejected by the United States, Israel’s main military backer.
However, in recent days, there have been indications that previously stalled ceasefire negotiations could be revived.
Families of the 96 hostages still in Gaza since the Hamas attack that triggered the war, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead, are pressing for their release.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who visited Israel on Thursday and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said he “got the sense” that the Israeli leader was “ready to do a deal.”
He also said that the Hamas approach to negotiations had changed, attributing it to the overthrow of their ally Bashar Assad in Syria and the ceasefire that went into effect in the war between Israel and another ally, Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Militants abducted 251 hostages during the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which killed 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official figures.
This count includes hostages who died or were killed while held in Gaza.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 44,805 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the United Nations considers reliable.