ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is expected to face a wheat shortage of over five million tons next year with a reduction in the crop sowing area and production, according to provincial governments estimates, as economists and food security experts say this will strain on the economy and lead to inflation.
Wheat is a staple food in Pakistan and its shortage can lead to political unrest and protests against governments. The South Asian nation of 241 million is expected to face a shortfall of 5.66 million tons of the commodity next year and would have to spend foreign exchange to import wheat to fulfill local demand.
This year, the government allowed the private sector to import over three million tons of wheat to overcome shortages while tens of thousands of farmers staged protests in several cities over the government’s decision not to buy their wheat, causing them huge income losses.
The government routinely purchases around 20 percent of all the wheat produced by local farmers at a fixed cost to ensure price stability, prevent hoarding, and maintain the supply chain. However, it lowered its purchase target to two million tons from around six million tons this year, with farmers in Punjab, the country’s largest wheat producer, asking the authorities to stop imports and purchase the commodity from them at the minimum support price fixed officially.
“The provinces have come up with a lower sowing area and production target of wheat for the next year, therefore the country will face a shortage of the commodity,” Yasir Shakeel, a deputy director at Ministry of National Food Security and Research, told Arab News. “The provincial governments have been taking measures to achieve the sowing and production targets of wheat to fulfill the local need.”
He said the Federal Committee on Agriculture had set a wheat production target of 33.58 million tons from target area of 10.368 million hectares for 2025-26 based on national requirement for the produce to attain self-sufficiency.
“According to provincial governments’ proposals the target area for wheat will be 9.263 million hectares with production of 27.92 million tons,” he said.
The official said the Indus River System Authority’s advisory committee has anticipated a shortage of water to the extent of about 16 percent for Punjab and Sindh during the winter crop season, running from October to April, which could impact the wheat production along with other crops.
Farmers on the other hand have urged the government to announce a minimum support price of over Rs4,500 per 40 kilogram to encourage their community to sow the crop to achieve the government’s production target.
“There are still 15 to 20 days before the wheat sowing season concludes, so the government’s intervention at this stage may help encourage farmers sow the crop instead of looking for the alternatives,” Khalid Bath, President Kissan Ittehad, a farmers’ association, told Arab News.
As per the Kissan Ittehad estimates, the wheat sowing area can drop more than 30 percent this year compared to the previous year due to the Punjab administration’s policy of reducing the procurement target.
Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri, food security expert, said the farmers had not received a fair price for their cash crop, adding they were short of investments to sow the wheat crop on a large area.
“Farmers are looking for substitutes to earn profits on their crops as the government is apparently not willing to announce the minimum support price for the next year’s crop,” he told Arab News. “This will definitely lead to food shortages in the country, and the private sector will have a role to play to import the product to meet the local demand.”
Asif Arsalan Haider, a senior economist, maintained Pakistan’s inflation rate was heavily influenced by the agricultural products in the country, pointing out that wheat shortage would have a major impact on it.
“Pakistan’s rural economy is dependent on agriculture,” he said. “Therefore, farmers may face hardships if the government does not procure their produce at a fixed price.”
“The government should come up with a long term agricultural policy instead of resorting to stopgap arrangements each year,” he added.
Earlier this year in May, local media reported that the Punjab government had reduced its usual wheat procurement, allowing the private sector to play a larger role in purchasing the crop due to significant financial constraints, with annual procurement costs reaching around Rs400 billion ($1.4 billion).
The move was described partly as a response to the International Monetary Fund’s recommendations to cut provincial expenditures.
Reports also quoted Punjab’s Finance Minister Mujtaba Shuja-ur-Rehman as saying that most farmers had sold their wheat to middlemen, leading to market prices of Rs3,200-3,300 per maund, a traditional unit of mass commonly used in South Asia, amounting to about 40 kilograms, though this shift slightly reduced profit margins for farmers.
Pakistan to face 5 million ton wheat shortage next year amid reduced sowing area
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Pakistan to face 5 million ton wheat shortage next year amid reduced sowing area
- Federal government wants 33.58 million tons, while provinces expect 27.92 million due to reduced sowing area
- Farmers urge minimum support price announcement from Punjab to encourage wheat sowing this season
Pakistan stocks rally continues as market crosses record 104,000 points
- The benchmark KSE-100 index gained 1,284 points, or 1.24 percent, to close at 104,559 points on Tuesday
- The development came amid slowing annual inflation, narrowing trade deficit and increasing exports
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Tuesday continued its momentum and surged by more than 1,000 points to close at another record high, with stock analysts attributing it to upbeat economic data and a possible policy rate cut.
The benchmark KSE-100 index gained 1,284 points, or 1.24 percent, to close at 104,559 points on Tuesday afternoon, compared to the previous day close of 103,274 points.
The development came as Pakistan’s annual consumer inflation slowed to 4.9 percent in November, amid a narrowing trade deficit and increasing exports.
“Upbeat data on $8.65 billion trade deficit narrowing by 7.4 percent, and $13.69bn exports, up by 12.57 percent, for Jul-Nov 2024 played a catalyst role in record surge at PSX,” Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer (CEO) of Arif Habib Corporation, told Arab News.
Consumer inflation cooled from 7.2 percent in October, a sharp drop from a multi-decade high of nearly 40 percent in May 2023. The South Asian country also slashed interest rates by 250 basis points earlier in November to help revive a sluggish economy amid a big drop in the rate of inflation.
Mehanti said the bullish trend was led by scrips across the board as investors eyed big policy rate cut next week.
The PSX breached the 100,000-mark for the first time ever on November 28 to close at 100,082 points.
Pakistan deputy PM signs ECO clean energy charter at Iran summit
- The ECO is an intergovernmental organization that promotes economic, technical, and cultural cooperation among members
- Ishaq Dar also met Iranian FM in Mashhad, where the two leaders agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation in all spheres
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, on Tuesday signed the Economic Cooperation Organization’s (ECO) charter on clean energy to enhance regional cooperation for transition to sustainable energy, the Pakistani foreign ministry said.
The ECO is a political and economic intergovernmental organization that promotes economic, technical, and cultural cooperation among member states. Founded in 1985 by Iran, Pakistan and Turkiye, the ECO aimed to succeed the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD), which existed from 1964 to 1979.
The ECO’s objectives include contributing to the development of member states, removing trade barriers within the ECO region, developing intra-regional trade, promoting the ECO region’s integration with global markets and strengthening cultural and historical ties among member states.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry said the ECO clean energy charter would contribute to the global network of regional sustainable energy centers under the framework of the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All Initiative.
“The charter is a flagship initiative of ECO in the energy sector which will focus on research & development for innovative renewable clean energy sources to combat climate change [and] play a bridging role in enhancing regional cooperation for smooth transition to sustainable energy,” it said in a statement.
Dar signed the charter at the 28th meeting of the ECO Council of Ministers in Mashhad, Iran, where he also held a bilateral meeting with Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi.
“During the meeting, they exchanged views on areas of mutual interest and the latest regional and global developments,” Pakistan’s state-run APP news agency reported. “Both countries agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation in all spheres.”
The meeting came weeks after Araghchi’s visit to Islamabad to hold consultations with Pakistani leaders on the Middle East situation following Israel’s invasion of Gaza and Lebanon, and to discuss bilateral ties.
Separately, Dar held meetings with ECO Secretary General Dr. Asad Majeed and Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Murat Nurtleu to discuss the latest regional and global developments, and platforms to boost inter-regional connectivity and trade cooperation among ECO members.
Pakistan denies ‘hiccups’ in IMF program, reaffirms commitment to reforms agenda
- Statement comes on the heels of local media report that there were “hiccups” in the implementation of IMF program
- IMF is pushing Pakistan to continue prudent fiscal and monetary policies, mobilize revenue from untapped tax bases
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s finance ministry on Tuesday denied any “hiccups” in the implementation of a $7 billion IMF bailout program, saying it was progressing “smoothly” and the country was committed to a macroeconomics reforms agenda attached to the loan.
The finance ministry statement came a day after a major Pakistani newspaper, the Express Tribune, reported that Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had said in a briefing to the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance that there were “hiccups” in the implementation of the IMF program.
The bailout is attached to tough economic reforms, including prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and mobilizing revenue from untapped tax bases.
Pakistan’s $350 billion economy has struggled for decades with boom-and-bust cycles, needing 23 IMF bailouts since 1958.
“The IMF program is proceeding smoothly, with no disruptions, as the government of Pakistan remains fully committed to meeting all the conditionalities and ensuring the successful completion of the 37-month program in close coordination with the IMF staff,” the finance ministry statement said, adding that Aurangzeb had “consistently emphasized upon the government’s continued commitment to macroeconomic reforms.”
Referring to the local media report on the recent briefing to the National Assembly Standing Committee on Finance, the ministry said Aurangzeb had reiterated there that adhering to the IMF program was critical for achieving lasting macroeconomic stability.
“Any speculation regarding “hiccups” in the program’s implementation is based on one’s subjective interpretations and lacks credible evidence,” the finance ministry added.
“The government remains focused on maintaining economic stability and fulfilling all obligations under the IMF program with diligence and transparency, aiming to lay the foundation for stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth.”
The IMF, which approved the new bailout in September, has said the program will require “sound policies and reforms” to strengthen macroeconomic stability and address structural challenges alongside “continued strong financial support from Pakistan’s development and bilateral partners.”
The IMF said in its statement on approving the loan that Pakistan had taken key steps to restore economic stability with consistent policy implementation under the 2023-24 standby arrangement.
It added that growth had rebounded to 2.4 percent and inflation has receded significantly, falling to single digits, amid appropriately tight fiscal and monetary policies.
A contained current account and calm foreign exchange market conditions have allowed the rebuilding of reserve buffers, and the central bank of Pakistan has been able to reduce interest rates by 700 bps since June in four consecutive cuts.
Despite this progress, Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and structural challenges remain formidable and the tax base remains too narrow.
The South Asian country is the IMF’s fifth-largest debtor, owing the Fund $6.28 billion as of July 11, according to the lender’s data.
Pakistan win Blind T20 World Cup, coinciding with International Day Of Persons With Disabilities
- Pakistan’s blind cricket team defeats Bangladesh by 10 wickets
- This is Pakistan’s first win since inception of the series in 2012
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s blind cricket team on Tuesday won the Blind T20 World Cup, defeating Bangladesh by 10 wickets in a victory that coincided with the annual International Day Of Persons With Disabilities.
This is the first time Pakistan has won the Blind T20 World Cup since the inception of the series in 2012, with India winning the previous three editions.
“Congratulations to the Pakistan blind cricket team for clinching the Blind Cricket T20 World Cup title with a 10-wicket win over Bangladesh in the final at Multan Cricket Stadium,” the Pakistan Cricket Board said on X.
In a thrilling finale, Bangladesh managed to post a modest total of 139 runs after losing seven wickets, while Arif Hussain stood out as the star performer for Bangladesh, delivering 54 runs.
On the bowling front for Pakistan, Babar Ali claimed three crucial wickets while his teammates Motiullah and Mohammad Salman each took one wicket. Pakistan then successfully chased down the target in 11 overs without losing a single wicket.
The opening pair of Nisar Ali and Mohammad Safdar forged an unbeaten partnership that saw Ali score an impressive 72 runs and Safdar 47 runs, leading the host nation to a resounding 10-wicket victory.
In the inaugural Blind T20 World Cup held in India in 2012, the hosts triumphed over Pakistan with a 29-run victory. The second edition, hosted in 2017, saw India winning by 9 wickets against Pakistan. In the most recent edition in 2022, India bested Bangladesh in the final to claim the trophy once again.
However, India did not participate in the fourth edition as their government denied the team permission to travel to Pakistan where the series was held.
Pakistan province forms grand jirga to broker truce after 133 killed in sectarian feuding
- 133 people killed, 177 injured in sporadic clashes in Kurram district since Nov. 21 with two failed attempts at a ceasefire
- Grand jirga has participation of former lawmakers from tribal districts with representation from Sunni and Shiite sects
PESHAWAR: The government in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has formed a grand council of elders to broker a ceasefire in the region’s Kurram district where over 130 people have been killed in sectarian clashes since last month and two earlier deals to stymie the fighting have failed, members of the new council said on Tuesday.
Pakistan is a Sunni-majority country, but Kurram has a large Shiite population, and the communities have clashed for decades. At least 133 people have been killed and 177 injured in sporadic clashes since Nov. 21, with two failed attempts at a ceasefire.
On Monday, the provincial cabinet approved what it called a “comprehensive action plan” aimed at “restoring durable peace and stability” in Kurram. The plan involves a new grand jirga comprising former parliamentarians and senators from tribal districts with representation from both the Sunni and Shiite sects, ex-senator Saleh Shah, a member of the council, told Arab News.
“We are fully empowered by the provincial government to move the peace efforts forward to settle the Kurram saga once and for all,” Shah said on Tuesday. “Because of the representation of members of both the sects in the jirga, I’m very much optimistic that we can settle the Kurram issue ... Since the day the jirga was formed, we are getting positive signals for a breakthrough.”
The latest fighting broke out last Thursday when two separate convoys of Shiite Muslims traveling under police escort were ambushed, killing more than 40. Since then days of fighting with light and heavy weapons have brought the region to a standstill, with major roads closed and mobile phone services cut as the death toll surged.
Shah said the jirga had already had its first meeting, and also met with KP chief minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Governor Faisal Karim Kundi. Meetings were now also planned with the Peshawar corps commander, the prime minister, the president and the army chief to discuss the overall security situation of the area.
The jirga will head to Kurram district after the apex committee meeting, attended by the prime minister, his cabinet and all three services chiefs, which was scheduled to be held on Dec. 5, Shah said.
“The jirga members have the capacity to arrest peace in Kurram as we have seen many ups and downs in the region,” Shah said. “We are active in politics on the ground in KP and the tribal areas and we have the ability to set things on track.”
Another member of the Jirga, Sajjid Hussain Turi, a former minister for overseas Pakistanis, said the northwestern tribal areas in general and the Kurram district in particular were experiencing a “complete collapse of law and order.”
“I’m sure the newly-formed jirga can deliver in helping the government to identify pathways leading to eternal peace in Kurram,” he said. “All members of the jirga are well-experienced and political heavyweights to tackle challenges effectively.
“Our main purpose is to give a permanent solution to the people of Kurram. Second, we want to give peace to our children, otherwise we have spent our youth in incessant wars and fighting.”
