ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is expected to face a wheat shortage of over five million tons next year with a reduction in the crop sowing area and production, according to provincial governments estimates, as economists and food security experts say this will strain on the economy and lead to inflation.
Wheat is a staple food in Pakistan and its shortage can lead to political unrest and protests against governments. The South Asian nation of 241 million is expected to face a shortfall of 5.66 million tons of the commodity next year and would have to spend foreign exchange to import wheat to fulfill local demand.
This year, the government allowed the private sector to import over three million tons of wheat to overcome shortages while tens of thousands of farmers staged protests in several cities over the government’s decision not to buy their wheat, causing them huge income losses.
The government routinely purchases around 20 percent of all the wheat produced by local farmers at a fixed cost to ensure price stability, prevent hoarding, and maintain the supply chain. However, it lowered its purchase target to two million tons from around six million tons this year, with farmers in Punjab, the country’s largest wheat producer, asking the authorities to stop imports and purchase the commodity from them at the minimum support price fixed officially.
“The provinces have come up with a lower sowing area and production target of wheat for the next year, therefore the country will face a shortage of the commodity,” Yasir Shakeel, a deputy director at Ministry of National Food Security and Research, told Arab News. “The provincial governments have been taking measures to achieve the sowing and production targets of wheat to fulfill the local need.”
He said the Federal Committee on Agriculture had set a wheat production target of 33.58 million tons from target area of 10.368 million hectares for 2025-26 based on national requirement for the produce to attain self-sufficiency.
“According to provincial governments’ proposals the target area for wheat will be 9.263 million hectares with production of 27.92 million tons,” he said.
The official said the Indus River System Authority’s advisory committee has anticipated a shortage of water to the extent of about 16 percent for Punjab and Sindh during the winter crop season, running from October to April, which could impact the wheat production along with other crops.
Farmers on the other hand have urged the government to announce a minimum support price of over Rs4,500 per 40 kilogram to encourage their community to sow the crop to achieve the government’s production target.
“There are still 15 to 20 days before the wheat sowing season concludes, so the government’s intervention at this stage may help encourage farmers sow the crop instead of looking for the alternatives,” Khalid Bath, President Kissan Ittehad, a farmers’ association, told Arab News.
As per the Kissan Ittehad estimates, the wheat sowing area can drop more than 30 percent this year compared to the previous year due to the Punjab administration’s policy of reducing the procurement target.
Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri, food security expert, said the farmers had not received a fair price for their cash crop, adding they were short of investments to sow the wheat crop on a large area.
“Farmers are looking for substitutes to earn profits on their crops as the government is apparently not willing to announce the minimum support price for the next year’s crop,” he told Arab News. “This will definitely lead to food shortages in the country, and the private sector will have a role to play to import the product to meet the local demand.”
Asif Arsalan Haider, a senior economist, maintained Pakistan’s inflation rate was heavily influenced by the agricultural products in the country, pointing out that wheat shortage would have a major impact on it.
“Pakistan’s rural economy is dependent on agriculture,” he said. “Therefore, farmers may face hardships if the government does not procure their produce at a fixed price.”
“The government should come up with a long term agricultural policy instead of resorting to stopgap arrangements each year,” he added.
Earlier this year in May, local media reported that the Punjab government had reduced its usual wheat procurement, allowing the private sector to play a larger role in purchasing the crop due to significant financial constraints, with annual procurement costs reaching around Rs400 billion ($1.4 billion).
The move was described partly as a response to the International Monetary Fund’s recommendations to cut provincial expenditures.
Reports also quoted Punjab’s Finance Minister Mujtaba Shuja-ur-Rehman as saying that most farmers had sold their wheat to middlemen, leading to market prices of Rs3,200-3,300 per maund, a traditional unit of mass commonly used in South Asia, amounting to about 40 kilograms, though this shift slightly reduced profit margins for farmers.