A glance at Ukraine’s plan aimed at nudging Russia into talks to end the war

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a NATO-Ukraine Council Working Dinner at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels on October 17, 2024. (POOL / AFP)
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Updated 18 October 2024
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A glance at Ukraine’s plan aimed at nudging Russia into talks to end the war

  • Zelensky outlined the plan to Ukraine’s Parliament on Wednesday without disclosing confidential elements that have been presented in private to key allies, including the US

KYIV: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has partially revealed his five-point plan aimed at prompting Russia to end the war through negotiations. A key element would be a formal invitation into NATO, which Western backers have been reluctant to consider until after the war ends.
Zelensky outlined the plan to Ukraine’s Parliament on Wednesday without disclosing confidential elements that have been presented in private to key allies, including the United States.
Here’s what we know:
Invitation to NATO
The plan’s first section involves formally inviting Ukraine to join NATO in the near future.
While this doesn’t mean Ukraine would become a member until after the war ends, it would signal a “testament of determination” and demonstrate how Western partners view Ukraine within the “security architecture,” Zelensky said.
“For decades, Russia has exploited the geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, particularly the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member,” Zelensky said. “This has tempted Russia to encroach upon our security.”
He described the invitation to join NATO as “truly fundamental for peace” in Ukraine.
NATO partners have been reluctant to invite Ukraine to join while the war is ongoing, and Zelensky’s request for an invitation puts the military alliance in a difficult position.
Since the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the alliance has faced challenges in finding ways to bring Ukraine closer without formally extending an invitation.
At their summit in Washington in July, NATO’s 32 members declared Ukraine on an “irreversible” path to membership. But any decision on offering to start membership talks is not likely before the next summit in the Netherlands in June.

 

 

Defense
The second section, entitled defense, focuses on strengthening Ukraine’s capability to reclaim territory and “to bring the war back to the Russian territory.”
It includes the continuation of military operations in Russia with the aim of strengthening Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian forces from occupied territories in Ukraine.
It also would involve enhancing air defense and jointly intercepting Russian missiles and drones with neighboring countries along the international border. Ukraine wants to expand the use of Ukrainian drones and missiles, and lift restrictions on using Western-supplied weapons for long-range strikes against military infrastructure inside Russia.
Ukraine also seeks greater access to a broader range of intelligence from allies and real-time satellite data. This section of the plan has confidential elements accessible only to allies with the “relevant assistance potential,” Zelensky said.
He said Ukraine has been providing its partners “with a clear justification of what its goals are, how they intend to achieve them, and how much this will reduce Russia’s ability to continue the war.”
Western partners have been wary of Ukraine using donated weapons in anything but a defensive capacity, for fear of being drawn into the conflict.
Ukraine has long been lobbying for the US to drop its restrictions on using long-range Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, but the Biden administration’s red line remained unchanged even after Zelensky’s recent visit to Washington, D.C.
 




Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (C) arrives with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte(2L) for the NATO-Ukraine Council Working Dinner attended by NATO defense ministers at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels on October 17, 2024. (POOL / AFP)

Deterrence
In the deterrence section of the plan, Ukraine calls for deploying “a comprehensive non-nuclear deterrence package on its territory that would be sufficient to protect the country from any military threat posed by Russia.”
Zelensky did not elaborate on the details of such a non-nuclear deterrence, but he said it would be used against specific Russian military targets, meaning that Russia would “face the loss of its war machine.”
He said this capability would limit Russia’s options for continuing its aggression and prod it into engaging in a fair diplomatic process to resolve the war.
Classified elements of this section have been shared with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany, he said. Other countries capable of contributing also would be briefed, Zelensky said.
Economy
The fourth section focuses on developing Ukraine’s strategic economic potential and strengthening sanctions against Russia.
Zelensky highlighted that Ukraine is rich in natural resources, including critically important metals “worth trillions of US dollars,” such as uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, etc.
“Ukraine’s deposits of critical resources, combined with its globally significant potential in energy and food production, are among Russia’s key objectives in this war,” he said. But it also “represents our opportunity for growth.”
The economic component of the plan also includes a confidential addendum shared only with selected partners, he said.
“Ukraine offers … a special agreement for the joint protection of Ukraine’s critical resources, shared investment, and use of its economic potential,” he said. “This, too, is peace through strength — economic strength.”
Post-war period
The fifth section is geared toward the post-war period. Zelensky stated that Ukraine will have a big army of experienced military personnel after the war.
“These are our soldiers — warriors who will possess real experience in modern warfare, successful use of Western weaponry, and extensive interaction with NATO forces,” he said. “This Ukrainian experience should be used to strengthen the alliance’s defense and ensure security in Europe. It’s a worthy mission for our heroes.”
He also mentioned that, with partners’ approval, Ukrainian units could replace certain US military contingents stationed in Europe.

 


Ukraine’s Zelensky meets Pope Leo, prepares revised plan on Russia war

Updated 6 sec ago
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Ukraine’s Zelensky meets Pope Leo, prepares revised plan on Russia war

  • UKrainian leader said that Washington’s 28-point plan had been reduced to 20 points after US-Ukraine talks at the weekend
CASTEL GANDOLFO, Italy: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Pope Leo XIV in Italy on Tuesday as he prepared to send the United States revised proposals to end Russia’s invasion.
Zelensky on Monday held talks with European leaders in London and Brussels as US President Donald Trump keeps up pressure on Kyiv for a settlement.
Trump has accused Zelensky of not even reading his administration’s initial proposals, which were judged by Ukraine’s allies to be overly favorable to Russia.
Zelensky said that Washington’s 28-point plan had been reduced to 20 points after US-Ukraine talks at the weekend.
Ukrainian and European officials “are going to work on these 20 points,” Zelensky told an online press conference on Monday.
“We do not like everything that our partners came back with. Although this issue is not so much with the Americans as with the Russians.
“But we will definitely work on it, and as I said, tomorrow evening (Tuesday) we will do everything to send our view on this to the US.”
Washington’s plan involved Ukraine surrendering land that Russia has not captured in return for security promises that fall short of Kyiv’s aspirations to join NATO.
Zelensky pointed to the land issue and international security guarantees as two of the main sticking points.
“Do we envision ceding territories? We have no legal right to do so, under Ukrainian law, our constitution and international law. And we don’t have any moral right either,” Zelensky said.
“The key is to know what our partners will be ready to do in the event of new aggression by Russia. At the moment, we have not received any answer to this question,” Zelensky said.
‘Robust security guarantees’
Zelensky met with Pope Leo at his country residence in Castel Gandolfo near Rome, and is to meet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni later Tuesday.
Meloni has been a staunch supporter of Kyiv since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, although one of her coalition allies, Matteo Salvini’s League party, is more skeptical.
Rome has sent weapons to Ukraine but only for use inside the country. Meloni has also ruled out sending troops in a possible monitoring force proposed by Britain and France.
The Italian government last week postponed a decision on renewing military aid to Ukraine, with the current authorization due to end on December 31. Salvini has reportedly questioned if it was necessary given the new talks.
However, Meloni at the time insisted that “as long as there’s a war, we’ll do what we can, as we’ve always done to help Ukraine defend itself.”
On Monday, Zelensky met in London with the leaders of Britain, France and Germany before heading to Brussels for talks with the heads of the EU and of NATO.
“Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected. Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed, in the long term, as a first line of defense for our Union,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after Monday’s meeting.
French President Emmanuel Macron wrote on X after the London meeting that “we are preparing robust security guarantees and measures for Ukraine’s reconstruction.”
Macron said the “main issue” was finding “convergence” between the European-Ukrainian position and that of the United States.
Trump has blown hot and cold on Ukraine since returning to office in January, initially chastising Zelensky for not being grateful for US support.
But he was also frustrated that efforts to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war had failed to produce results and he recently slapped sanctions on Russian oil firms.