Iran, allies plan joint but limited retaliation against Israel

Iranian protesters wave Iranian, Palestinian and Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group flags in a demonstration to condemn the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh as a huge portrait of him is seen on a wall at background, at Felestin (Palestine) Sq. in Tehran on Jul. 31, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 02 August 2024
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Iran, allies plan joint but limited retaliation against Israel

  • “Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party,” the source said
  • “There is a very strong likelihood that the response will be coordinated...,” said Amal Saad, a Hezbollah researcher and lecturer at Britain’s Cardiff University

BEIRUT: Iran and armed groups backed by it are preparing coordinated action meant to deter Israel but avert all-out war, sources and analysts said, after the killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah figures.
On Thursday, Iranian officials met in Tehran with representatives of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” — a loose alliance of Tehran-backed groups hostile to Israel — to discuss retaliation for the deaths of Hamas’s leader and Hezbollah’s top military commander, said a source close to Lebanese group.
“Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party,” the source who had been briefed on the meeting told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened a “harsh punishment” for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which the group blamed on Israel, also vowing revenge.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Thursday his group was bound to respond to Israel’s killing of top military commander Fuad Shukr, saying in a speech broadcast at the funeral that his death and that of Haniyeh “crossed” red lines.

Israel said it “eliminated” Shukr Tuesday in a strike on southern Beirut, describing him as Nasrallah’s “right-hand man.” He led operations in south Lebanon, where the group has exchanged near-daily fire with Israel since the Gaza war erupted.
“There is a very strong likelihood that the response will be coordinated... among other resistance actors,” said Amal Saad, a Hezbollah researcher and lecturer at Britain’s Cardiff University.
“It’s going to greatly deepen the tactical coordination between Iran” and the groups it supports across the region, she said, naming Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Yemen’s Houthi militants and Iraq’s Hashed Al-Shaabi force.
A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a loose alliance of pro-Iran groups, told AFP that “Iran will lead the first response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni and Syrian factions, striking military targets, followed by a second response from Hezbollah.”
The Iraqi alliance has claimed attacks on US troops, most recently over the Gaza war, before suspending them in late January.
It has also claimed to have targeted Israel with drones and rockets.
The source, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said Hezbollah may target civilians to avenge the killing of three women and two children in the strike that killed Shukr in Beirut.
Iran and its allies are widely expected to respond militarily to the killings blamed on Israel, which has claimed responsibility only for Shukr’s death, though experts say the retaliation would be measured to avoid a wider conflagration.
“Iran and Hezbollah will not want to play into (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu’s hands and give him the bait or ammunition he needs to drag the US into a war,” Saad said.
“They will more than likely try to avert a war while also strongly deterring Israel from continuing with this new policy, this targeted shock and awe.”
The White House said the two killings hours apart “don’t help” regional tensions, though National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Washington saw “no signs that an escalation is imminent.”
Iranian analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi, who specializes in international relations, said “a stronger response is expected” from Tehran than during its last direct face-off with Israel in April.
Iran on April 13 made its first ever direct attack on Israeli soil, firing a barrage of drones and missiles after a strike blamed on Israel killed Revolutionary Guards at Tehran’s consulate in Damascus.
The United States was in touch with Iran at the time, sending “a series of direct communications through the Swiss channel,” a senior administration official had told AFP.
Zeidabadi said that “a repeat of the previous operation wouldn’t make much sense, because the missiles and drones did not hit sensitive areas or have a deterrent effect.”
But he ruled out a “generalized, all-out and out-of-control war.”
According to Middle East analyst Rodger Shanahan, “regime survival” is a top priority for Tehran, “the same as Hezbollah.”
“They will put a lot of pressure on the Israelis on behalf of the Palestinians, but they are not going to risk an existential threat against them,” he told AFP.


Israel’s settler movement takes victory lap as a sparse outpost becomes a settlement within a month

Updated 21 January 2026
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Israel’s settler movement takes victory lap as a sparse outpost becomes a settlement within a month

  • Smotrich, who has been in charge of Israeli settlement policy for the past three years, has overseen an aggressive construction and expansion binge aimed at dismantling any remaining hopes of establishing a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank

YATZIV SETTLEMENT, West Bank: Celebratory music blasting from loudspeakers mixed with the sounds of construction, almost drowning out calls to prayer from a mosque in the Palestinian town across this West Bank valley.
Orthodox Jewish women in colorful head coverings, with babies on their hips, shared platters of fresh vegetables as soldiers encircled the hilltop, keeping guard.
The scene Monday reflected the culmination of Israeli settlers’ long campaign to turn this site, overlooking the Palestinian town of Beit Sahour, into a settlement. Over the years, they fended off plans to build a hospital for Palestinian children on the land, always holding tight to the hope the land would one day become theirs.
That moment is now, they say.
Smotrich goes on settlement spree
After two decades of efforts, it took just a month for their new settlement, called “Yatziv,” to go from an unauthorized outpost of a few mobile homes to a fully recognized settlement. Fittingly, the new settlement’s name means “stable” in Hebrew.
“We are standing stable here in Israel,” Finance Minister and settler leader Bezalel Smotrich told The Associated Press at Monday’s inauguration ceremony. “We’re going to be here forever. We will never establish a Palestinian state here.”
With leaders like Smotrich holding key positions in Israel’s government and establishing close ties with the Trump administration, settlers are feeling the wind at their backs.
Smotrich, who has been in charge of Israeli settlement policy for the past three years, has overseen an aggressive construction and expansion binge aimed at dismantling any remaining hopes of establishing a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank.
While most of the world considers the settlements illegal, their impact on the ground is clear, with Palestinians saying the ever-expanding construction hems them in and makes it nearly impossible to establish a viable independent state. The Palestinians seek the West Bank, captured by Israel in 1967, as part of a future state.
With Netanyahu and Trump, settlers feel emboldened
Settlers had long set their sights on the hilltop, thanks to its position in a line of settlements surrounding Jerusalem and because they said it was significant to Jewish history. But they put up the boxy prefab homes in November because days earlier, Palestinian attackers had stabbed an Israeli to death at a nearby junction.
The attack created an impetus to justify the settlement, the local settlement council chair, Yaron Rosenthal, told AP. With the election of Israel’s far-right government in late 2022, Trump’s return to office last year and the November attack, conditions were ripe for settlers to make their move, Rosenthal said.
“We understood that there was an opportunity,” he said. “But we didn’t know it would happen so quickly.”
“Now there is the right political constellation for this to happen.”
Smotrich announced approval of the outpost, along with 18 others, on Dec. 21. That capped 20 years of effort, said Nadia Matar, a settler activist.
“Shdema was nearly lost to us,” said Matar, using the name of an Israeli military base at the site. “What prevented that outcome was perseverance.”
Back in 2006, settlers were infuriated upon hearing that Israel’s government was in talks with the US to build a Palestinian children’s hospital on the land, said Hagit Ofran, a director at Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog group, especially as the US Agency for International Development was funding a “peace park” at the base of the hill.
The mayor of Beit Sahour urged the US Consulate to pressure Israel to begin hospital construction, while settlers began weekly demonstrations at the site calling on Israel to quash the project, according to consulate files obtained through WikiLeaks.
It was “interesting” that settlers had “no religious, legal, or ... security claim to that land,” wrote consulate staffer Matt Fuller at the time, in an email he shared with the AP. “They just don’t want the Palestinians to have it — and for a hospital no less — a hospital that would mean fewer permits for entry to Jerusalem for treatment.”
The hospital was never built. The site was converted into a military base after the Netanyahu government came to power in 2009. From there, settlers quickly established a foothold by creating makeshift cultural center at the site, putting on lectures, readings and exhibits
Speaking to the AP, Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister at the time the hospital was under discussion, said that was the tipping point.
“Once it is military installation, it is easier than to change its status into a new outpost, a new settlement and so on,” he said.
Olmert said Netanyahu — who has served as prime minister nearly uninterrupted since then — was “committed to entirely different political directions from the ones that I had,” he said. “They didn’t think about cooperation with the Palestinians.”
Palestinians say the land is theirs
The continued legalization of settlements and spiking settler violence — which rose by 27 percent in 2025, according to Israel’s military — have cemented a fearful status quo for West Bank Palestinians.
The land now home to Yatziv was originally owned by Palestinians from Beit Sahour, said the town’s mayor, Elias Isseid.
“These lands have been owned by families from Beit Sahour since ancient times,” he said.
Isseid worries more land loss is to come. Yatziv is the latest in a line of Israeli settlements to pop up around Beit Sahour, all of which are connected by a main highway that runs to Jerusalem without entering Palestinian villages. The new settlement “poses a great danger to our children, our families,” he said.
A bypass road, complete with a new yellow gate, climbs up to Yatziv. The peace park stands empty.