PARIS: France on Saturday prepared for its most consequential legislative election of recent times, with residents of overseas territories opening voting for a poll expected to give the far right its biggest ever presence in parliament.
A traditional final day pause was observed on Saturday ahead of Sunday’s second round runoff after a frenetic campaign that saw tensions rise across the country and dozens of attacks on candidates.
Underlining France’s global footprint that spans the oceans of the world, the first French region to vote was Saint Pierre and Miquelon, a small French archipelago off the coast of Canada where citizens began voting from 1000 GMT.
They were to be followed on Saturday by residents of French Caribbean territories including Martinique and Guadeloupe as well as Guiana in South America.
French Pacific territories come next before people in mainland France cast their ballots from 0600 GMT on Sunday.
Polls will close by 1800 GMT on Sunday when projections of seat numbers — regarded in France as a firm indicator of the final outcome — are published.
Final opinion polls on Friday suggested that far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) would fall short of winning an outright majority in the National Assembly.
But President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble in calling snap elections is expected to end with his centrist alliance having half the number of deputies it had before.
He now faces the final three years of his presidency with no clear ruling majority, and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal perhaps trying to hold together a caretaker government.
“Today the danger is a majority dominated by the extreme right and that would be catastrophic,” Attal said in a final pre-election interview with French television on Friday.
According to pollsters Ipsos and Ifop, anti-immigrant, euroskeptic RN could secure 170 to 210 seats in the National Assembly — well short of 289, an absolute majority.
French voters could therefore go to bed on Sunday night with no idea who might be able to form and lead a government, or whether a weakened Attal would shoulder on.
Le Pen insists that she is still on course for victory and an absolute majority that would force Macron to appoint her 28-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella as prime minister.
Attal vowed to stay on “as long as necessary” in a caretaker role, while Macron’s office is studying options to maintain some form of government.
Macron is to remain in office until presidential and legislative elections in April 2027, but he must now face the possibility of sharing power with political foes.
The prospect of France forming its first far-right government since World War II has dismayed its European allies, already perplexed by Macron’s gamble on a snap poll.
It also has left up in the air who will be in charge of the French government when the Olympic Games begin in Paris on July 26.
In an effort to halt the far-right rise seen in the first round of voting on June 30, centrists and left-wing parties formed second round polling pacts.
Le Pen has denounced the move as a bid to steal victory “against the will of the people” by creating what she calls a “single party” to protect the political class.
But it is far from certain how many voters who saw their preferred candidates drop out to give another a clear run against the RN will turn out on Sunday, with anti-RN figures saying nothing should be taken for granted.
“Contrary to what we are all hearing, it is not at all guaranteed as we speak,” Raphael Glucksmann, who led the Socialist list in European elections, warned on Friday.
With so much of the outcome uncertain, tensions are rising.
More than 50 candidates and campaign activists have been physically assaulted during the four-week campaign, the shortest in modern French history.
About 30,000 police, including 5,000 in Paris, will be deployed this weekend to head off trouble.
France braces for crunch election as overseas territories kick off vote
https://arab.news/wkbpq
France braces for crunch election as overseas territories kick off vote
- Polls will close by 1800 GMT on Sunday when projections of seat numbers are published
- Final opinion polls on Friday suggested that far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) would fall short of winning an outright majority in the National Assembly
Russia’s Kaliningrad puts on brave face as isolation bites
- The Baltic states surrounding Kaliningrad, all NATO members, have been some of Ukraine’s staunchest backers since Moscow launched its offensive in February 2022
KALININGRAD: Standing in the center of rainy Kaliningrad, the isolated Russian exclave surrounded by NATO countries, Russian factory worker Alexander felt confident.
Economically hit by being cut-off from its EU neighbors and physically isolated from the rest of Russia, officials and locals are putting on a brave face amid claims they are under siege from neighbors Poland and Lithuania.
The Baltic states surrounding Kaliningrad, all NATO members, have been some of Ukraine’s staunchest backers since Moscow launched its offensive in February 2022.
Poland and Lithuania “want to show off, display their strength, reinforce their borders,” said Alexander, 25, who did not give his surname.
But his city is “certainly not one that surrenders,” he added, taking pride that Russia had far more weapons than its smaller neighbors.
His defiance echoes the Kremlin’s relentless criticism of NATO.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has for years accused the military alliance of breaking an apparent promise not to expand eastwards.
In June, he said Russians had been “tricked, duped on the subject of NATO’s non-expansion.”
Ukraine and the West reject that narrative as a pretext advanced by Putin to justify the offensive, which has become Europe’s largest conflict since World War II.
In Russia’s neighbors, the intensity of the confrontation is palpable.
Poland and Lithuania, which have a land border with Kaliningrad, have virtually closed their borders for Russians, bar limited exceptions.
In recent weeks, Estonia and Lithuania have reported Russian jets violating their airspace.
And Poland’s new president Karol Nawrocki said he believed Russia was “ready to hit at other countries” after NATO scrambled jets to shoot down Russian drones flying through Polish airspace.
‘Let them bark’
Kaliningrad — a previously German city called Konigsberg until it became Soviet after WWII — is strategic for Moscow.
It is home to Russia’s Baltic Fleet, as well as Iskander ballistic missiles, the same kind that Moscow regularly fires on Ukraine.
The region’s governor did not respond to an AFP request for an interview.
The Kremlin’s hard-line messages run deep with many.
Marina, a 63 year-old who works in a clothes shop, mocked the region’s EU neighbors, saying they should focus on their own problems.
“Let them bark,” she said. “I am 100 percent protected in Kaliningrad. I am not scared of NATO.”
Showing Russian tourists round the tomb of philosopher Immanuel Kant, guide Anna Dmitrik was relieved that Kaliningrad had not been targeted by the Ukrainian retaliatory drone attacks that have hit many other regions.
“It’s calm here. We are not scared for now,” she said, adding: “I don’t know what will happen next.”
Still, reminders of the war are everywhere.
Banners encouraged men to sign up to fight in Ukraine for Russia’s “victorious army.” Giant Zs — the symbol of Moscow’s forces in Ukraine — decorated buildings.
‘Life was better then’
But behind the defiance, Kaliningrad’s locals struggled with the feeling of being more isolated, and worse off, than before February 2022.
Banned from EU airspace, planes connecting the exclave to the rest of Russia must take a long detour northwards via the Gulf of Finland.
A train linking it to Moscow is physically sealed as it crosses Lithuania, with Russian passengers requiring a visa or transit permit to board.
And Vilnius has closed its border with key Russian ally Belarus for at least a month over the intrusion of balloons carrying thousands of illegal cigarettes into the EU state.
Before “you could go to Poland to shop or just take a walk. Buses and trucks were running,” said mechanic Vitaly Tsypliankov, 48.
“Life was better then,” he added.
“Now everything is closed. Everything is more expensive, absolutely everything has become costlier.”
Inflation has surged across Russia amid the Ukraine offensive, but complicated logistics hit Kaliningrad especially hard.
While Poland’s border is technically open, only Russians with EU residency can enter. Traffic into the country has virtually stopped.
Most petrol stations near the border are empty if not shut down.
The giant Baltia shopping mall, on the road to the airport, is sparsely frequented.
“Kaliningrad’s economic situation is very bad,” said Irina, a saleswoman there.
“Logistics are very complicated to bring in products from (the rest of) Russia,” she said, puffing on a cigarette.
“Everything is more expensive.”
