The reasons behind the thawing of ties between Ankara and Damascus

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Children play outside tents at a camp for people displaced by conflict in Syria’s northern Aleppo province. The refugees face an uncertain future. (AFP file photo)
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Syria’s Assad Al-Assad. (Supplied)
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Updated 30 June 2024
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The reasons behind the thawing of ties between Ankara and Damascus

  • Gaza war creates new regional dynamics for Assad regime, necessitates closer relations with Turkiye, says expert
  • Erdogan signals possible policy shift as Turkiye considers rapprochement with Syria

ANKARA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signaled a possible restoration of relations with Syria’s Assad regime in a surprising move that marks a significant departure from years of hostility between the two nations.

Erdogan’s comments, which were made after Friday prayers, suggest a willingness to revive diplomatic ties with Damascus, emphasizing historical precedent and family ties as potential foundations for future engagement.

“There is no reason why it should not happen,” Erdogan said.

“Just as we kept our relations very lively in the past, we even had talks between our families with Assad. It is certainly not possible to say that this will not happen in the future. It can happen; the Syrian people are our brothers.”

The Turkish leader’s comments echo similar sentiments recently expressed by Syrian President Bashar Assad, who has indicated his willingness to pursue steps toward normalization, provided they respect Syria’s sovereignty and contribute to counter-terrorism efforts.

The remarks came during a meeting with Alexander Lavrentiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy to Syria.

The concurrent statements are seen as part of a broader effort to reconcile Ankara and Damascus, but the path to rapprochement remains fraught with uncertainty and complexity.

Erdogan, then prime minister of Turkiye, hosted Assad in 2009 for a family holiday in the Aegean resort of Bodrum, and they enjoyed amicable visits to nurture their friendship.

But since severing all ties with the Assad regime in 2011, Turkiye has been a vocal supporter of his opponents in Syria and called for the ousting of Assad from power.

Ankara’s involvement has escalated with several cross-border military operations and the establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria, in which Turkish troops are stationed.

The Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers met in Moscow last year, marking the highest-level contact between the two countries since the start of the Syrian Civil War.

But the talks, along with an earlier meeting between the two countries’ defense ministers, did not bring about any change in bilateral relations.

Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Levant studies at the Ankara-based think tank ORSAM, says there is a glimmer of hope for a resumption of the dialogue process.

He told Arab News: “There have been some developments in recent weeks. It is said that Turkish and Syrian officials could meet in Baghdad with the mediation of Iraq, and surprising developments in Turkish-Syrian relations are expected in the coming period.”

Efforts were being made to bring the parties together, he added.

Orhan believes that with Russia’s softening position in Ukraine, the Kremlin has begun to pay more attention to Turkish-Syrian relations, and the Gaza conflict also requires new regional dynamics and presents new security challenges for the Assad regime, which necessitates closer Turkish-Syrian relations.

He said: “Discussions about a possible US withdrawal after the upcoming presidential elections are another factor to consider.”

The Assad regime has recently been in talks with the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units and “is trying to corner Turkiye by signaling that it could reach an agreement with the YPG if Turkiye does not accept its conditions, while at the same time opening channels with Turkiye,” he added.

Ankara considers the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a terrorist group closely linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has been waging a decades-long insurgency in southeast Turkiye.

Experts say that both parties are trying to consolidate their positions in line with regional changes and consider their red lines for domestic security concerns.

But Orhan does not expect Turkish troops to withdraw in the short term, and added: “First, there may be an agreement between the parties on how to deal with the YPG.

“At that point Turkiye may have to take some steps regarding its relationship with the opposition. However, there will not be a situation where the Syrian opposition is completely abandoned or its support is cut off. A gradual road map can be agreed.”

Orhan expects that a mechanism of guarantees involving Russia or even Iran could be agreed upon for a road map for withdrawal from Syria.

He said: “Gradual steps will be taken based on criteria such as the complete elimination of the PKK/YPG threat and the creation of conditions for the safe return of Syrian refugees to their country.

“A common will against the PKK is not very likely at this stage because the Syrian regime still wants to use the YPG as a trump card against Turkiye. It believes that after a possible US withdrawal, it can reach an agreement with the YPG and solve this problem with minor concessions.”

Experts believe a partnership between Ankara and Damascus, like the one between Iraq and Turkiye, is unlikely at the moment.

But Orhan believes common ground can be found in the fight against the PKK, depending on the gradual steps taken by Turkiye.

He said: “Instead of a joint military operation, Turkiye’s continued military moves against the YPG, followed by an agreement on areas that Syrian regime forces can retake and control, can be agreed upon.”

Turkiye currently hosts 3.1 million Syrian refugees, according to official figures. One of Ankara’s expectations from a possible rapprochement between Turkiye and Syria would be the safe return of these refugees to their homeland.

Orhan said: “The return of Syrian refugees can only be possible after a lasting solution in Syria.

“It is a long-term, difficult problem to solve. From the Assad regime’s point of view, it sees this as a bargaining chip and a burden on Turkiye’s shoulders.”

He added that the return of Syrian refugees was also seen as providing a risk factor for the Assad regime.

The refugees are seen as “people who fled the country, and it is questionable how willing Assad is to repatriate them,” said Orhan.

Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and current chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM, has spoken of the profound shifts in regional security dynamics in the wake of the war in Gaza and amid uncertainties surrounding US policy in the Middle East, particularly in Syria.

He told Arab News: “For Syria, which now faces an even more unpredictable security environment, this forces the Syrian leadership to reassess its position for negotiations with Turkiye in response to the evolving geopolitical realities.”

Ulgen believes that from Turkiye’s point of view, this represents a potentially favorable opportunity, provided that Syria is willing to reconsider the terms of engagement that have so far prevented meaningful dialogue.

He added: “Until now, these conditions have been a major obstacle to starting a substantive negotiation process.”

Ulgen said that Syria’s willingness to revise these conditions will be crucial in determining whether formal negotiations can begin.

He added: “The critical question now is whether Damascus will stick to its preconditions, some of which may prove untenable, such as the demand for an immediate withdrawal of Turkish troops from border areas.”

Progress in reconciliation efforts would depend on the lifting of such conditions, Ulgen said.

 

 


Israel releases video of a Gaza tunnel where it says militants killed 6 hostages

Updated 6 sec ago
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Israel releases video of a Gaza tunnel where it says militants killed 6 hostages

The release of the new video could add to the pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire deal

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military has released video footage of a Gaza tunnel where it says six hostages were recently killed by Hamas.
The video shows a low, narrow passageway deep underground that had no bathroom and poor ventilation.
The discovery of the hostages’ bodies last month sparked a mass outpouring of anger in Israel and the release of the new video could add to the pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire deal with Hamas to bring the remaining hostages home.
Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Tuesday the footage of the Gaza tunnel had been shown to the hostages’ families, and that it “was very hard for them to see how their loved ones survived in those conditions.”

Israel close to completing Gaza missions, focus on north, defense minister says

Updated 10 September 2024
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Israel close to completing Gaza missions, focus on north, defense minister says

  • “The center of gravity is moving northward, we are near to completing our tasks in the south, but our mission here is not yet done,” Gallant told troops
  • “These instructions that you are waiting for here today, I gave in the south and saw the forces operate“

JERUSALEM: Israeli forces are near to fulfilling their mission in Gaza and their focus will turn to the country’s northern border with Lebanon as daily exchanges of fire with Hezbollah take place, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Tuesday
“The center of gravity is moving northward, we are near to completing our tasks in the south, but our mission here is not yet done,” Gallant told troops on Israel’s northern border in a video sent by his office.
Gallant was attending a ground combat drill, his office said.
“These instructions that you are waiting for here today, I gave in the south and saw the forces operate,” Gallant said referring to Israel’s ground invasion of the Gaza Strip three weeks after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas that triggered the war.
The Lebanese group Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8 and the two sides have been trading fire since, with tens of thousands of civilians displaced on both sides of the border.
Israeli leaders have said they would prefer to resolve the conflict through an agreement that would push Iran-backed Hezbollah away from the border. Hezbollah has said that it will continue fighting Israel as long as the war in Gaza is ongoing.
In separate remarks to journalists on Tuesday, Gallant said:
“While we pursue an agreement, I have directed the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) to prepare for every scenario, including directing our attention to the northern arena. We are committed to changing the security situation on the northern front and to bringing our citizens home safely.”
The Israeli military on Tuesday said it killed a commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force. The group confirmed his death but not his role and said it fired rockets at Israeli army targets across the border in retaliation.


Israel strike on Lebanon kills Hezbollah commander: source, army

Updated 10 September 2024
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Israel strike on Lebanon kills Hezbollah commander: source, army

  • Mohammad Qassem Al-Shaer, “a field commander” in the group’s elite Radwan Force, “was targeted in an Israeli strike on a motorcycle in the Bekaa” Valley
  • Hezbollah earlier announced Shaer had been killed by Israeli fire, but did not refer to him as a commander

BEIRUT: An Israeli strike Tuesday on eastern Lebanon killed a Hezbollah commander, a source close to the group and the Israeli military said, the latest in near-daily exchanges throughout the Gaza war.
The Iran-backed Lebanese group has traded fire with Israeli forces in support of ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group’s October 7 attack triggered war in the Gaza Strip, with repeated escalations during more than 11 months of the cross-border violence.
A source close to Hezbollah told AFP that Mohammad Qassem Al-Shaer, “a field commander” in the group’s elite Radwan Force, “was targeted in an Israeli strike on a motorcycle in the Bekaa” Valley in Lebanon’s east, far from the Israeli border.
Hezbollah earlier announced Shaer had been killed by Israeli fire, but did not refer to him as a commander.
The Israeli military said its air force had “eliminated the terrorist Mohammad Qassem Al-Shaer in the area of Qaraoun,” in the Bekaa Valley.
It referred to Shaer as “a Hezbollah Radwan Force commander.”
Elsewhere in Lebanon, the health ministry said an “Israeli enemy” strike on a building in the southern city of Nabatiyeh “caused light injuries to nine people.”
The cross-border violence since early October has killed some 615 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including 138 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, authorities have announced the deaths of at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians.


Cousin of Israeli slain in captivity says military pressure is killing the hostages

Updated 10 September 2024
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Cousin of Israeli slain in captivity says military pressure is killing the hostages

  • Gat’s body and those of five fellow hostages were recovered by Israeli troops on Sept 1, triggering an outpouring of grief and mass protests among Israelis demanding a hostage deal
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said increased military pressure would ultimately bring the hostages home

JERUSALEM: Gil Dickmann’s worst nightmare came true when he was told his cousin Carmel Gat, who had survived 11 months in Hamas captivity, had been killed in a tunnel in Gaza just before Israeli forces arrived.
“She was so close to hugging her father,” Dickmann, 32, told Reuters outside the Israeli Knesset, where he was lobbying lawmakers to push for a deal to secure the hostages’ release.
“We failed as a country, we failed as a community.”
Gat’s body and those of five fellow hostages were recovered by Israeli troops on Sept 1, triggering an outpouring of grief and mass protests among Israelis demanding a hostage deal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said increased military pressure would ultimately bring the hostages home.
An autopsy revealed that Gat and the other five hostages had been shot in the back of the head at close range, less than 48 hours before Israeli forces recovered the bodies in a tunnel under Gaza.
“Military pressure kills the hostages,” said Dickman. “We know that for a fact.”
Hamas has said in separate statements that Israel is responsible for killing the hostages, or that Netanyahu is responsible for killing them by obstructing a ceasefire agreement.
Oct. 7 was the deadliest day for Israel in its 75 year history, with around 1,200 people killed and some 250 seized and taken as hostages into Gaza, according to Israeli tallies. Hamas released 105 hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in a hostage deal in November.
Carmel Gat was taken hostage on October 7th, while staying at her parents’ home in Kibbutz Be’eri, in southern Israel.
Talks to bring the hostages back and end the fighting in Gaza, where Israel’s campaign to crush Hamas has destroyed much of the Gaza Strip and killed more than 40,000 people according to Palestinian figures, have stalled.
Esther Buchshtav, whose son Yagev was killed in captivity earlier this year, said on Monday at a meeting in Israel’s parliament that a military investigation found her son had been executed by Hamas when soldiers came close to where he was being held.
Dickmann has become one of the most recognizable faces in the movement to push for a hostage deal. He has appeared often on Israeli nightly news shows and clips have circulated widely on social media showing him in screaming matches with Israeli lawmakers and giving passionate speeches in Israel’s Knesset.
Last month, he went to Israel’s southern border along with a group of hostage families who ran toward the border in an effort to gather sympathy for their cause.
The high volume of protesters who demonstrated after Gat’s death, Dickmann said, showed that the Israeli government is disconnected from the will of the people.
“The Israeli people want life,” Dickmann said. “We fight for the lives of the hostages. We don’t fight for revenge.”


Arab League’s chief calls for Denmark’s recognition of Palestinian state

Updated 10 September 2024
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Arab League’s chief calls for Denmark’s recognition of Palestinian state

  • Ahmed Aboul Gheit expresses appreciation for Denmark’s supportive positions
  • Arab League’s chief urged Denmark to follow the lead of several European countries that had recently recognized the independent state of Palestine

CAIRO: Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit has called on Denmark to recognize the state of Palestine.

Aboul Gheit made the remarks as he received Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Denmark’s minister of foreign affairs, at the headquarters of the General Secretariat in Cairo.

Gamal Roshdy, a spokesman for the secretary-general, said that the meeting between the two focused on enhancing bilateral cooperation in areas of mutual interest.

Aboul Gheit expressed appreciation for Denmark’s supportive positions on the Palestinian cause.

Aboul Gheit spoke of his confidence that Denmark would continue to play a constructive role in promoting peace, security, and stability in the Arab region — particularly in light of Copenhagen’s recent success in securing a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council for the 2025-2026 term.

The Arab League’s chief urged Denmark to follow the lead of several European countries that had recently recognized the independent state of Palestine within the borders of June 4, 1967, and with East Jerusalem as its capital.

He stressed that such recognition was crucial to realizing the two-state solution.

The foreign minister reaffirmed his country’s support for Arab issues and concerns and outlined Denmark’s current foreign policy priorities.

He also stressed his country’s keen interest in strengthening relations with Arab nations across all sectors.