LONDON: Three opinion polls on Wednesday predicted a record defeat for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives at a July 4 election, forecasting the Labour Party would comfortably win a large majority after 14 years in opposition.
Polling by YouGov showed Keir Starmer’s Labour was on track to win 425 parliamentary seats in Britain’s 650-strong House of Commons, the most in its history. Savanta predicted 516 seats for Labour and More in Common gave it 406.
YouGov had the Conservatives on 108 and the Liberal Democrats on 67, while Savanta predicted the Conservatives would take 53 parliamentary seats and the Liberal Democrats 50. More in Common forecast 155 and 49 seats respectively.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said its projection put Labour on course “for a historic majority.”
The three polls were so-called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) surveys, an approach that uses voters’ age, gender, education and other variables to predict results in every British voting district. Pollsters used the method to successfully predict the 2017 British election result.
They are largely in line with previous surveys predicting a Labour victory, but show the scale of the Conservatives’ defeat could be even worse than previously thought.
YouGov’s forecast of 108 seats for the Conservatives was around 32 lower than its previous poll two weeks earlier.
Both Savanta and YouGov predicted that the party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher could be left with the lowest number of seats in its near 200-year history contesting elections.
Sunak, who in a final throw of the dice last week pledged to cut 17 billion pounds of taxes for working people if re-elected,
has failed to turn the polls around so far in a campaign littered with missteps.
His task has been made harder by the surprise mid-campaign return to frontline politics by prominent Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, a right-wing populist, whose Reform UK party threatens to split the right-of-center vote.
Britain has a first-past-the-post electoral system, meaning Reform could pick up millions of votes across the country without winning any individual seats.
YouGov predicted Reform would win five seats and Savanta none. More in Common did not give a figure for Reform.
The Savanta poll, published by the Telegraph newspaper, said Sunak could even lose his own parliamentary seat in northern England, once considered a safe Conservative constituency, with the contest currently too close to call.
Sunak has acknowledged that people are frustrated with him and his party after more than a decade in power, dominated at times by political turmoil and scandal.
All three surveys projected several senior government ministers, including finance minister Jeremy Hunt, were on course to lose their seats.
Most opinion polls currently place Keir Starmer’s Labour about 20 percentage points ahead of the governing Conservatives in the national vote share.
Other polls in recent days have also presented a grim picture for Sunak, with one pollster predicting “electoral extinction” for the Conservatives.
UK PM Sunak’s Conservatives set for heavy election defeat, polls forecast
https://arab.news/2dm6j
UK PM Sunak’s Conservatives set for heavy election defeat, polls forecast
- Polling by YouGov showed Keir Starmer’s Labour was on track to win 425 parliamentary seats in Britain’s 650-strong House of Commons
- Savanta poll, published by the Telegraph newspaper, said Sunak could even lose his own parliamentary seat in northern England
Trump says Iran ‘want to negotiate’ after reports of hundreds killed in protests
- US President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran’s leadership had called him seeking “to negotiate” after he repeatedly threatened to intervene militarily if Tehran killed protesters
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said Sunday that Iran’s leadership had called him seeking “to negotiate” after he repeatedly threatened to intervene militarily if Tehran killed protesters.
For two weeks, Iran has been rocked by a protest movement that has swelled in spite of a crackdown rights groups warn has become a “massacre.”
Initially sparked by anger over the rising cost of living, the demonstrations have evolved into a serious challenge of the theocratic system in place since the 1979 revolution.
Information has continued to trickle out of Iran despite a days-long Internet shutdown, with videos filtering out of capital Tehran and other cities over the past three nights showing large demonstrations.
As reports emerge of a growing protest death toll, and images show bodies piled outside a morgue, Trump said Tehran indicated its willingness to talk.
“The leaders of Iran called” yesterday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that “a meeting is being set up... They want to negotiate.”
He added, however, that “we may have to act before a meeting.”
The US-based Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) said it had received “eyewitness accounts and credible reports indicating that hundreds of protesters have been killed across Iran during the current Internet shutdown.”
“A massacre is unfolding,” it said.
The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) said it confirmed the killing of at least 192 protesters but that the actual toll could be much higher.
“Unverified reports indicate that at least several hundreds, and according to some sources, more than 2,000 people may have been killed,” said IHR.
More than 2,600 protesters have been arrested, IHR estimates.
A video circulating on Sunday showed dozens of bodies accumulating outside a morgue south of Tehran.
The footage, geolocated by AFP to Kahrizak, showed bodies wrapped in black bags, with what appeared to be grieving relatives searching for loved ones.
Near paralysis
In Tehran, an AFP journalist described a city in a state of near paralysis.
The price of meat has nearly doubled since the start of the protests, and many shops are closed. Those that do open must close at around 4:00 or 5:00 pm, when security forces deploy en masse.
There were fewer videos showing protests on social media Sunday, but it was not clear to what extent that was due to the Internet shutdown.
One widely shared video showed protesters again gathering in the Pounak district of Tehran shouting slogans in favor of the ousted monarchy.
The protests have become one of the biggest challenges to the rule of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, coming in the wake of Israel’s 12-day war against the Islamic republic in June, which was backed by the United States.
State TV has aired images of burning buildings, including a mosque, as well as funeral processions for security personnel.
But after three days of mass actions, state outlets were at pains to present a picture of calm returning, broadcasting images of smooth-flowing traffic on Sunday. Tehran Governor Mohammad-Sadegh Motamedian insisted in televised comments that “the number of protests is decreasing.”
The Iranian government on Sunday declared three days of national mourning for “martyrs” including members of the security forces killed.
President Masoud Pezeshkian also urged Iranians to join a “national resistance march” Monday to denounce the violence.
In response to Trump’s repeated threats to intervene, Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran would hit back, calling US military and shipping “legitimate targets” in comments broadcast by state TV.
‘Stand with the people’
Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s ousted shah, who has emerged as an anti-government figurehead, said he was prepared to return to the country and lead a democratic transition.
“I’m already planning on that,” he told Fox News on Sunday.
He later urged Iran’s security forces and government workers to join the demonstrators.
“Employees of state institutions, as well as members of the armed and security forces, have a choice: stand with the people and become allies of the nation, or choose complicity with the murderers of the people,” he said in a social media post.
He also urged protesters to replace the flags outside of Iranian embassies.
“The time has come for them to be adorned with Iran’s national flag,” he said.
The ceremonial, pre-revolution flag has become an emblem of the global rallies that have mushroomed in support of Iran’s demonstrators.
In London, protesters managed over the weekend to swap out the Iranian embassy flag, hoisting in its place the tri-colored banner used under the last shah.
