ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Friday warned of rains and thunderstorms in parts of the country during the three-day Eid Al-Adha holiday starting from June 17, urging citizens to exercise caution.
The authority said rains and thunderstorms were expected in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, Balochistan, Sindh and Punjab from June 15 till June 19 that could be extended up to June 22.
The forecast was made in light of warmer than average temperatures across the South Asian country of more than 241 million, according to the NDMA.
“Rainfall may trigger landslides, mudslides or falling boulders potentially disrupting roads during this period in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Galiyat, Murree, Gilgit Baltistan and State of AJ&K,” it said in an advisory.
“Rainfall may cause flash flooding in local nullahs [in Balochistan]. Hill torrents may be triggered in Sulaiman and the Kirthar Range.”
Isolated rainfall and thunderstorms are expected in Punjab and Sindh provinces from June 20 till June 22.
“Hill torrents may be triggered in DG Khan and Rajanpur. Rainfall with chances of heavy falls may generate flash / urban flooding in municipalities / local nullahs / streams and river tributaries,” the NDMA said.
“Thunderstorms to increase risk of lightning strikes. Electricity / other utility services may get disrupted.”
The authority advised citizens to plan travels to picnic and tourist spots considering weather and traffic conditions.
“Avoid overcrowding picnic and tourist spots and ensure personal safety. Keep children away from nullahs / potholes / drainage lines to avoid accidents,” it said.
“Do not risk crossing any drain or road overtopping with water flow. Wait for flows to normalize and prioritize/ ensure safety.”
Earlier this week, a top UN official warned that an estimated 200,000 people in Pakistan could be affected by the upcoming monsoon season, which is expected to bring heavier rains than usual.
The United Nations, with help from local authorities, has prepared a contingency plan, with $40 million set aside to respond to any emergencies, said Mohamed Yahya, the newly appointed Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator in Pakistan.
However, the rains would not be as heavy as in 2022 when devastating floods killed 1,739 people, destroyed 2 million homes, and covered as much as one-third of the country at one point.
This year, the South Asian country recorded its “wettest April since 1961,” with 59.3 millimeters rainfall and at least 144 deaths in thunderstorms and house collapses, according to the authorities.
Pakistan is one of the countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change, in part because of its immense northern glaciers, which are now melting as air temperatures rise. Warmer air can also hold more moisture, intensifying the rains of the monsoon.
Pakistan authorities forecast rains and thunderstorms on Eid Al-Adha, urge caution
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Pakistan authorities forecast rains and thunderstorms on Eid Al-Adha, urge caution
- This year, Pakistan recorded its ‘wettest April since 1961,’ with 59.3mm rainfall and 144 deaths in thunderstorms and house collapses
- A top UN official this week warned that an estimated 200,000 people in Pakistan could be affected by the upcoming monsoon season
IMF warns against policy slippage amid weak recovery as it clears $1.2 billion for Pakistan
- Pakistan rebuilt reserves, cut its deficit and slowed inflation sharply over the past one year
- Fund says climate shocks, energy debt, stalled reforms threaten stability despite recent gains
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economic recovery remains fragile despite a year of painful stabilization measures that helped pull the country back from the brink of default, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Thursday, after it approved a fresh $1.2 billion disbursement under its ongoing loan program.
The approval covers the second review of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review of its climate-focused Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), bringing total disbursements since last year to about $3.3 billion.
Pakistan entered the IMF program in September 2024 after years of weak revenues, soaring fiscal deficits, import controls, currency depletion and repeated climate shocks left the economy close to external default. A smaller stopgap arrangement earlier that year helped avert immediate default, but the current 37-month program was designed to restore macroeconomic stability through strict monetary tightening, currency adjustments, subsidy rationalization and aggressive revenue measures.
The IMF’s new review shows that Pakistan has delivered significant gains since then. Growth recovered to 3 percent last year after shrinking the year before. Inflation fell from over 23 percent to low single digits before rising again after this year’s floods. The current account posted its first surplus in 14 years, helped by stronger remittances and a sharp reduction in imports. And the government delivered a primary budget surplus of 1.3 percent of GDP, a key program requirement. Foreign exchange reserves, which had dropped dangerously low in 2023, rose from US$9.4 billion to US$14.5 billion by June.
“Pakistan’s reform implementation under the EFF arrangement has helped preserve macroeconomic stability in the face of several recent shocks,” IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke said in a statement after the Board meeting.
But he warned that Islamabad must “maintain prudent policies” and accelerate reforms needed for private-sector-led and sustainable growth.
The Fund noted that the 2025 monsoon floods, affecting nearly seven million people, damaging housing, livestock and key crops, and displacing more than four million, have set back the recovery. The IMF now expects GDP growth in FY26 to be slightly lower and forecasts inflation to rise to 8–10 percent in the coming months as food prices adjust.
The review warns Pakistan against relaxing monetary or fiscal discipline prematurely. It urges the State Bank to keep policy “appropriately tight,” allow exchange-rate flexibility and improve communication. Islamabad must also continue raising revenues, broadening the tax base and protecting social spending, the Fund said.
Despite the progress, Pakistan’s structural weaknesses remain severe.
Power-sector circular debt stands at about $5.7 billion, and gas-sector arrears have climbed to $11.3 billion despite tariff adjustments. Reform of state-owned enterprises has slowed, including delays in privatizing loss-making electricity distributors and Pakistan International Airlines. Key governance and anti-corruption reforms have also been pushed back.
The IMF welcomed Pakistan’s expansion of its flagship Benazir Income Support Program, which raises cash transfers for low-income families and expands coverage, saying social protection is essential as climate shocks intensify. But it warned that high public debt, about 72 percent of GDP, thin external buffers and climate exposure leave the country vulnerable if reform momentum weakens.
The Fund said Pakistan’s challenge now is to convert short-term stabilization into sustained recovery after years of economic volatility, with its ability to maintain discipline, rather than the size of external financing alone, determining the durability of its gains.
