KARACHI: Independent financial experts in Pakistan said on Friday the country’s equity market was on fire as stocks hit another all-time high of 72,739 points amid euphoria surrounding the government’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for another loan along with possible Saudi investment and interest rate cut optimism.
The benchmark KSE100 index ended the weekend trading session with a gain of 771.7 points despite a relative decline in the morning. However, the market rebounded in the second half and soared to a new record high, closing at the 72,739 level.
The prevailing positive momentum began at the beginning of the year, making the KSE100 gain 8,081 points since January.
“Pakistan’s share market is on fire,” commented Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities. “It is hovering around the 73,000 mark and still soaring.”
Sohail said Pakistani stocks were “leading the pack” with nearly an 80 percent gain in US dollar terms over the past year, maintaining their number one position.
The market on Friday saw selling pressure in the morning but recovered in the second half, mainly due to the fertilizer and banking sectors.
“Initial pressure in the morning session was mainly due to the rollover week,” said Sheheryar Butt, Portfolio Manager at Darson Securities. “Later, the fertilizer sector led the buying spree, helping with the market recovery.”
Other sectors that contributed to the highest ever close included commercial banks, cement and the power sector since they collectively reversed the previous negative close and created a more bullish trend.
“Foreign inflows, a stable rupee, speculation ahead of the central bank policy rate decision on April 29, and firm IMF new loan talks played a key role in the record close,” said Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Corporation.
The KSE100 index has gained 5.4 percent on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, with many attributing this positivity in the market to investor expectations of an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on Monday.
The economic indicators also played a major role in the bullish trend of the stock market, particularly the current account number for the month of April which showed a 9-year-high surplus of $619 million.
Additionally, media reports that Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was going to Saudi Arabia where he would request the kingdom to expedite investment in Pakistan’s oil, gas, and mining sectors also kept the bullish sentiments alive.
“Investors expect that Pakistan’s prime minister will speed up the investment of $5 billion,” Butt said. “If he brings any good news, the market will see it positively.”
The stock market is also expecting that after keeping the policy rate high at 22 percent since June 27, 2023, the central bank will make some changes in its monetary policy statement next week. “Expectations are high this time,” he continued. “The interest rate can come down by 50 to 100 basis points.”
Pakistani stocks have largely witnessed a bullish trend after the country secured $3 billion in short-term financing in July last year to stave off sovereign debt default.
The government is now expecting the final disbursement of $1.1 billion of IMF financing after the approval of its executive board.
A new IMF program being negotiated by the authorities has also led to positive sentiment in the capital market and can lead to another round of bullish spells if and when it materializes.
