A chunk of Republican primary and caucus voters say they wouldn’t vote for Trump as the GOP nominee

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Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley attend a campaign rally at the Portland Elks Club on March 3, 2024 in Portland, Maine. (Getty Images/AFP)
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Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley attend a campaign rally at the Portland Elks Club on March 3, 2024 in Portland, Maine. (Getty Images/AFP)
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Updated 04 March 2024
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A chunk of Republican primary and caucus voters say they wouldn’t vote for Trump as the GOP nominee

  • 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall
  • Anywhere between one-half and two-thirds of the staunchly anti-Trump voters in the early contests said they had voted for Biden in 2020

WASHINGTON: A small but substantial chunk of Republican primary and caucus voters say they would be so dissatisfied if Donald Trump became the party’s presidential nominee that they would not vote for him in November’s general election, according to AP VoteCast.

An analysis of the data shows that many of those voters were unlikely to vote for Trump, some even before this year, but it still points to potential problems for the former president as he looks to consolidate the nomination and pivot toward an expected rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden.
According to AP VoteCast surveys of the first three head-to-head Republican contests, 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall.
This unwillingness to contemplate a presidential vote for Trump isn’t confined to voters in the earliest states.
Lee and Bill Baltzell defected from the Republican Party to register as independents a year ago. They attended a rally for supporters of Trump’s last major rival, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, last week in Centennial, Colorado, to encourage her to keep running against Trump.
“We don’t know that Trump will run into more legal problems and be disqualified, and I’d rather not see Biden in there for another four years,” said Bill Baltzell, 60.
If it’s between Biden and Trump, Lee Baltzell, 58, said she would consider writing in an alternative.
“I don’t know. I did not vote for Biden the last time; I don’t know that I could do it this time. But I don’t know if I could vote for Trump.”
Opposition from voters like the Baltzells hasn’t slowed Trump’s march toward the nomination, but it could be an issue for him later on. It’s not clear how much of a problem, though, because a dive into the numbers shows that many of the “never-Trump” voters in the early states were unlikely to vote for him in the general election to begin with.
Many of the voters who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump as the nominee aren’t Republicans at all. In the first three head-to-head contests, anywhere from 17 percent to 31 percent of the voters who said they wouldn’t support Trump in the general election identified as Democrats, and between 14 percent and 27 percent identified as independents.
Even for some of those Republicans, voting for Trump was already a tough sell. Anywhere between one-half and two-thirds of the staunchly anti-Trump voters in the early contests said they had voted for Biden in 2020.
Then there is the fact that primaries tend to draw out the people with the most passionate opinions. Voter turnout in primaries and caucuses, particularly ones that are relatively uncompetitive, is typically lower than it would be in a general election.
Still, about 1 in 10 early contest voters who said they supported Trump in the 2020 general election said they wouldn’t be doing so this year.
One question, though, is whether that means they would vote for Trump’s opponent instead.
“I won’t vote for Trump, I’ll just say that. I voted for him twice; I could never vote for him again,” said Linda Binkley, 74, a registered Republican who isn’t pleased by the prospect of a Trump vs. Biden matchup. She added, “I’m not sure I can vote for Biden.”
If Trump becomes the nominee, he will likely need to win over some of the moderates who supported Biden in 2020 if he wants to return to the White House. From that perspective, even a small amount of opposition from within his own party — not to mention broader skepticism among independents — could be a problem in the future.

AP VoteCast is a series of surveys conducted among 1,597 Republican caucus voters in Iowa, 1,989 New Hampshire voters who took part in the Republican primary and 2,466 Republican primary voters in South Carolina. The surveys were conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.


Afghan mothers seek hospital help for malnourished children

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Afghan mothers seek hospital help for malnourished children

HERAT: Najiba, 24, keeps a constant watch over her baby, Artiya, one of around four million children at risk of dying from malnutrition this year in Afghanistan.
After suffering a bout of pneumonia at three months old, Artiya’s condition deteriorated and his parents went from hospital to hospital trying to find help.
“I did not get proper rest or good food,” affecting her ability to produce breast milk, Najiba said at Herat Regional Hospital in western Afghanistan.
“These days, I do not have enough milk for my baby.”
The distressed mother, who chose not to give her surname for privacy reasons, said the family earns a living from an electric supplies store run by her husband.
Najiba and her husband spent their meagre savings trying to get care for Artiya, before learning that he has a congenital heart defect.
To her, “no one can understand what I’m going through. No one knows how I feel every day, here with my child in this condition.”
“The only thing I have left is to pray that my child gets better,” she said.
John Aylieff, Afghanistan director at the World Food Programme (WFP), said women are “sacrificing their own health and their own nutrition to feed their children.”
Artiya has gained weight after several weeks at the therapeutic nutrition center in the Herat hospital, where colorful drawings of balloons and flowers adorn the walls.
Mothers such as Najiba, who are grappling with the reality of not being able to feed their children, receive psychological support.
Meanwhile, Artiya’s father is “knocking on every door just to borrow money” which could fund an expensive heart operation on another ward, Najiba said.

- ‘Staggering’ scale -

On average, 315 to 320 malnourished children are admitted each month to the center, which is supported by medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF).
The number of cases has steadily increased over the past five years, according to Hamayoun Hemat, MSF’s deputy coordinator in Herat.
Since the Taliban regained power in 2021, low-income families have been hit hard by cuts to international aid, as well as drought and the economic fallout of five million Afghans forced across the border from Iran and Pakistan.
“In 2025, we’d already seen the highest surge in child malnutrition recorded in Afghanistan since the beginning of the 21st century,” Aylieff said in Kabul.
The crisis is only set to worsen this year, he told AFP: “A staggering four million children in this country will be malnourished and will require treatment.”
“These children will die if they’re not treated.”
WFP is seeking $390 million to feed six million Afghans over the next six months, but Aylieff said the chance of getting such funds is “so bleak.”
Pledges of solidarity from around the globe, made after the Taliban government imposed its strict interpretation of Islamic law, have done little to help Afghan women, the WFP director said.
They are now “watching their children succumb to hunger in their arms,” he said.

- ‘No hope’ -

In the country of more than 40 million people, there are relatively few medical centers that can help treat malnutrition.
Some families travel hundreds of kilometers (miles) to reach Herat hospital as they lack health care facilities in their home provinces.
Wranga Niamaty, a nurse team supervisor, said they often receive patients in the “last stage” where there is “no hope” for their survival.
Still, she feels “proud” for those she can rescue from starvation.
In addition to treating the children, the nursing team advises women on breastfeeding, which is a key factor in combating malnutrition.
Single mothers who have to work as cleaners or in agriculture are sometimes unable to produce enough milk, often due to dehydration, nurse Fawzia Azizi said.
The clinic has been a lifesaver for Jamila, a 25-year-old mother who requested her surname not be used out of privacy concerns.
Jamila’s eight-month-old daughter has Down’s syndrome and is also suffering from malnutrition, despite her husband sending money back from Iran where he works.
Wrapped in a floral veil, Jamila said she fears for the future: “If my husband is expelled from Iran, we will die of hunger.”