LONDON, 27 March 2004 — The UN-sponsored push for a Cyprus settlement moves toward a climax this weekend. Many will feel they have been here before. Even now, with much diplomatic capital invested in success, there is deep pessimism that a breakthrough can be achieved. For many, the 30-year Cyprus stalemate has become a symbol of failure: for Greek and Turkish Cypriots alike, for diplomacy and for an international community which stepped in with UN peacekeepers after the 1974 Turkish invasion and, in effect, entrenched partition.

Now Cyprus has become a key test for successful EU enlargement on May 1, when the Greek Cypriot Republic of Cyprus will join the union. The outcome could crucially affect Turkey’s EU membership aspirations and has implications for future security in a notoriously insecure part of the world. Writing in the current issue of World Today, the journal of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Britain’s former special representative for Cyprus, David Hannay, lists several positive developments since the last UN effort collapsed last March. These include last year’s easing of restrictions along the green line, the advance of pro-settlement parties in last December’s elections in Turkish northern Cyprus, and a political shift in Ankara.

Representatives of the two communities have been joined by delegations from the Greek and Turkish governments in the Swiss resort of Burgenstock, after a month of inconclusive bilateral talks in Nicosia. As part of the push for a deal, Costas Karamanlis, the Greek prime minister, his Turkish opposite number, Tayyip Erdogan, and Annan will also attend on Sunday.

In theory, all the parties are committed to a deal, except the veteran Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash. He would prefer to maintain the internationally unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and is boycotting Burgenstock. But he faces internal opposition and the Turkish Cypriots will be represented by their pro-settlement prime minister, Mehmet Ali Talat. Despite overt pressure by the EU, the UK foreign secretary, Jack Straw, and the US president, George Bush, there are suspicions that some on the Greek Cypriot side are also backsliding.

As with Denktash, it is feared they might campaign against acceptance in any referendum. This position may reflect what Lord Hannay calls the “more comfortable” situation in which the Greek Cypriots are placed. For them, EU membership is assured. For them, reunification with the much poorer north and the likely upheavals are not attractive. Recent opinion polls in the south and north of the island suggest that both communities will vote to reject the Annan plan unless the current dynamic changes. The nitty-gritty issues remain as intractable as ever. “There is political will to solve this thing,” said one Turkish official. “But at the end of the day it will be a miracle if, after 30 years, they can do it in seven days. “So far there have not really been any negotiations. The two sides are approaching it from very different angles. There was just a bunch of position papers flying around (in Nicosia). Nothing was done, really.”

“The process at Burgenstock will be very intensive,” said Alvaro de Soto, the UN’s Cyprus mediator. “All involved will have to show the necessary political will.” The issues to be resolved include:

• Turkish demands for permanent exemptions from EU law concerning property rights and freedom of movement (Turkish Cypriots fear they will be “swamped” by up to 180,000 returning refugees and wealthier incomers from the south; Greek Cypriots want up to 100,000 post- invasion Turkish settlers to leave).

• Power-sharing and security — the Greeks want an immediate, drastic reduction in the Turkish troop presence.

• Details of proposed territorial swaps, compensation and who will fund it, and the route of boundaries between the proposed bi-federal zones of a united Cyprus.

• The timing of ratification of any settlement by the Turkish and Greek parliaments.

Little wonder, despite all the external pressure, that the chances of reaching a deal still look slim this weekend. Perhaps after 30 years, the habit of failure is just too ingrained.

Or perhaps, just perhaps, Cyprus will surprise itself and the world.