Markets in retreat on growing fears of Middle East war

1 / 2
A currency trader passes by the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, left, and the foreign exchange rate between US dollar and South Korean won, center, at the foreign exchange dealing room of the KEB Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, on Oct. 18, 2023. (AP)
2 / 2
People stand in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei 225 index at a securities firm on Oct. 17, 2023, in Tokyo. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 19 October 2023
Follow

Markets in retreat on growing fears of Middle East war

  • All three main indexes on Wall Street ended in the red, and Asia followed suit
  • The prospect of an all-out war pushed oil prices up Wednesday

HONG KONG: Asian markets tumbled Thursday on fears the Israel-Hamas crisis would spill over into a wider conflict in the Middle East, with some warning that a full-blown war was increasingly likely.
With Benjamin Netanyahu building up a huge force ahead of an expected land incursion into Gaza, Iran has warned of a possible pre-emptive strike and called for an oil embargo against Tel Aviv.
President Joe Biden was due to make a television address on the crisis later in the day, having delivered full US backing for Israel in person on Wednesday during a solidarity visit.
However, Jordanian King Abdullah II, Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi canceled a meeting with Biden after a deadly strike on a hospital in Gaza.
The tragedy, which each side has blamed on the other — with Biden backing Israel — ratcheted up tensions and saw Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement call for a “day of rage.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian called for an “immediate and complete embargo on the Zionist regime by Islamic countries, an oil embargo against the regime.”
He also urged Muslim countries to expel Israeli ambassadors in comments at a summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, called in Saudi Arabia to discuss the crisis.
“The risks of an escalation have risen on the back of the latest news reports regarding the hospital bombing,” Jane Foley, of Rabobank, said.
“On any clear escalation, we can expect to see a ratcheting up of risk aversion” in markets, she added.
All three main indexes on Wall Street ended in the red, and Asia followed suit, with Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul and Singapore more than one percent down.
There were also losses in Shanghai, Manila, Jakarta and Wellington.
“The window for a diplomatic off-ramp to avert a wider war in the Middle East appears to be closing,” said RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft.
“A regional crisis appears the most likely outcome, especially with Israel still seemingly committed to a ground offensive to crush Hamas.”
The prospect of an all-out war pushed oil prices up Wednesday, though Washington’s decision to suspend some sanctions on Venezuelan output tempered the gains and both contracts were slightly lower in Asian trade.
Risk aversion among traders was increased by concerns the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates again, or at least keep them elevated for an extended period.
That pushed US 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9 percent for the first time since 2007, fanning even more unease on trading floors, with focus turning to Fed boss Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day at the Economic Club of New York.
That comes after New York Fed chief John Williams said borrowing costs would need to be kept restrictive “for some time” if the bank wanted to get inflation back to its two percent target.
And Governor Christopher Waller said: “I believe we can wait, watch and see how the economy evolves before making definitive moves on the path of the policy rate... As of today, it is too soon to tell.”
Carol Kong, at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: “A reiteration of the ‘higher for longer’ message on interest rates may allow US yields to stay at or above their current levels and keep the dollar supported.”

  • Tokyo — Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.9 percent at 31,446.99 (break)
  • Hong Kong — Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.4 percent at 17,478.06
  • Shanghai — Composite: DOWN 0.7 percent at 3,036.72
  • West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.5 percent at $86.84 per barrel
  • Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $90.88 per barrel
  • Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0537 from $1.0540 on Wednesday
  • Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2136 from $1.2141
  • Dollar/yen: UP at 149.83 yen from 149.93 yen
  • Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.82 pence from 86.79 pence
  • New York — Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 33,665.08 points (close)
  • London — FTSE 100: DOWN 1.1 percent at 7,588.00 (close)
     

World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
Follow

World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.