Pakistan says ‘heavily reliant’ on expensive imports amid public outcry over record energy prices

People get fuel at a petrol station after the government announced the increase of petrol and diesel prices, in Karachi, Pakistan on September 16, 2023. (REUTERS)
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Updated 17 September 2023
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Pakistan says ‘heavily reliant’ on expensive imports amid public outcry over record energy prices

  • Pakistan’s energy minister says gains in rupee’s value will reflect on the next month’s price cycle
  • Experts urge government to increase direct tax collection to reduce taxes on petroleum products

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s caretaker energy minister, Muhammad Ali, said on Sunday his country was “heavily reliant” on expensive energy imports and the government had limited control over their pricing, amid a public uproar over back-to-back hikes in electricity and petroleum prices. 

Pakistan announced a record increase in the prices of petroleum products this week, with the price of petrol going up by Rs26.02 to Rs331.38. The hike in petroleum prices, the third by the interim government of Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, came months after the outgoing government increased the power tariff in July, which led to inflated bills in August. 

The developments came months after Islamabad signed a badly-needed $3 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to avert a default due to decades of mismanagement and instability. However, the global lender demanded that popular subsidies cushioning living costs be slashed and imposition of more than Rs50 petroleum levy on every liter. 

Poverty-stricken Pakistanis have staged several demonstrations and strikes in recent weeks in protest over the hikes that are expected to further fuel inflation, which clocked in at 27.4 percent year-on-year in August, but officials say the government’s limited control over the energy prices makes it necessary to pass on the impact to consumers, regardless of the IMF deal. 

“We are heavily reliant on imports for 70 percent of our oil requirements,” the energy minister told Arab News. “Consequently, we must sell these products to consumers at the rates we purchase them from the international market.” 

Ali, however, said the impact of rupee strengthening against the dollar was not fully encapsulated in the latest revision of petroleum prices. “This will hopefully be captured in the future price revision,” he added. 

Reached for comment, people in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad collectively rejected the surge in energy prices and demanded the government withdraw them. 

Ahsan Ali, a security guard at a private company, said it had already been difficult for him to make the ends meet and the latest hike would make it even harder. 

“If I will spend all my salary on commuting between office and home, how we will survive,” he asked. “The government should devise a strategy to provide relief to the poor segment of the society so that they can at least live.” 

Muhammad Ikram, a lawyer in Islamabad, said the increase in fuel prices would aggravate the situation in the coming days. 

“The increased cost of living already posed challenges for the less fortunate in the nation,” Ikram told Arab News. “The rise in oil prices will further worsen their struggles.” 

Unfortunately, the energy minister said, improper pricing and less-than optimal extraction of Pakistan’s oil and gas reserves were one of the significant mistakes made in the country’s history. 

“This was a major blunder as currently we are extracting $3.5 billion less in oil and gas than we were a decade ago,” he said. 

It was essential to work on improving policy framework for oil and gas exploration, the minister said, adding the country should work at the same time on developing electric-powered public transport systems to reduce reliance on imported fuel-based vehicles. 

In addition to international prices, Ali said, the government had to include some profit margin for petroleum dealers that was agreed upon by the outgoing government during its final weeks, following warnings of a strike by the dealers. 

“Despite these factors, we offer petrol at one of the lowest prices in the region as the government does not generate any profit from this. Instead, it sells at international prices,” he said, admitting the prices did include a few taxes which was a “common practice” worldwide. 

Experts and economists supported the government’s view that passing on the impact of international prices to consumers was essential for economic sustainability, noting that the IMF deal left hardly any room for authorities to subsidize these commodities. 

“IMF or no IMF, we should not give any subsidy on fuel usage as it gives more advantage to those consumers who do not need subsidy,” Ali Salman, executive director of the Islamabad-based think tank Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), told Arab News. 

He said Pakistan followed international fuel prices to adjust its domestic rates, which was a “sound economic policy.” The expert, however, pointed to a lag between oil procurement and delivery in Pakistan. 

“So, the recent appreciation of Pakistan’s rupee against the US dollar will be reflected in a proportionate decrease in the fuel prices in next price adjustment cycles,” he said. 

Sarah Javaid, a research associate on international trade diplomacy, believed the government was announcing petroleum price hikes as per the deal with the IMF. 

“In their latest Stand-By Agreement (SBA) report on Pakistan, the IMF stressed upon generating Rs254 billion from petroleum development levy (PDL) by raising at least Rs60/liter,” she told Arab News. 

Due to this, the government had increased petrol prices by Rs78 since July, Javaid said, adding that no further increase in petroleum prices would be required to fulfill the IMF condition. 

Tahir Ahmad Dhindsa, another expert working with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), said the government had to enhance tax collection through the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), before it could reduce indirect taxes and offer fuel price relief to consumers. 

“International price is one component of the total retail price which is charged at the petrol pump and another component which contributes to this price is the taxes, levies and indirect taxes,” he told Arab News. 

He said the government was forced to levy those taxes because the FBR failed to raise taxes and the tax-to-GDP ratio had come down, which was why it imposed taxes on essential items. 


Pakistan secures $1.2 billion as IMF clears reviews, flags gains on stability and reforms

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Pakistan secures $1.2 billion as IMF clears reviews, flags gains on stability and reforms

  • IMF praises Pakistan’s policy implementation despite challenging global environment and climate-driven shocks
  • The Executive Board urges faster energy, SOE and governance reforms for macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability

KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved Pakistan’s second review under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review of its Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), said a statement on Tuesday, unlocking about $1.2 billion in new financing while praising the country’s progress in stabilizing the economy despite recent floods.

The decision taken by the IMF Executive Board allows Islamabad to draw $1 billion under the EFF and $200 million under the RSF, bringing total disbursements under both arrangements to about $3.3 billion. The Fund said Pakistan’s policy implementation had improved financing conditions, strengthened reserves and preserved stability even as the country faced a challenging global environment and climate-driven shocks.

Under the 37-month EFF, approved last year in September, the IMF noted strong fiscal performance, including a primary surplus of 1.3 percent of GDP, a rebound in gross reserves to $14.5 billion by end-FY25 from $9.4 billion a year earlier and progress on rebuilding confidence. It noted a surge in inflation due to flood-related food price spikes but said it was expected to ease.

“Pakistan’s reform implementation under the EFF arrangement has helped preserve macroeconomic stability in the face of several recent shocks,” IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke said. “Real GDP growth has accelerated, inflation expectations have remained anchored, and fiscal and external imbalances have continued to moderate.”

Clarke said Islamabad’s commitment to meeting its FY26 primary balance target while also addressing urgent post-flood relief signaled strong fiscal intent. He urged continued tax policy simplification and base broadening to build space for climate resilience, social protection and public investment.

The IMF official maintained a tight monetary stance should be continued to keep inflation within the State Bank Pakistan’s target range, while allowing exchange-rate flexibility and deepening the interbank market.

Additionally, he said financial regulation enforcement and capital market development were essential for a resilient financial sector.

The IMF also flagged energy sector reforms as “critical to safeguarding viability,” noting that timely tariff adjustments had helped curb circular debt but that Pakistan must now focus on reducing electricity production and distribution costs and addressing operational inefficiencies in both the power and gas sectors.

The statement also welcomed the publication of Pakistan’s Governance and Corruption Diagnostic report, a detailed IMF-supported assessment that maps out where government systems are vulnerable to inefficiency or misuse and recommends reforms to improve transparency, accountability and service delivery.

Further priorities include the privatization of state-owned enterprises and strengthening economic data quality.
Clarke said reducing Pakistan’s climate vulnerability was vital for long-term stability, referring to the RSF, a financing tool that provides long-term, low-cost loans to help countries address climate risks.

“The RSF arrangement is supporting efforts to strengthen natural disaster response and financing coordination, improve the use of scarce water resources, raise climate considerations in project selection and budgeting, and improve the information on climate-related risks in financing decisions,” he said.

Pakistan faced a prolonged economic crisis in recent years before it began implementing stringent IMF-recommended reforms, which have driven a gradual improvement in macroeconomic indicators over the past two years.

The country also remains one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations despite contributing less than one percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions.

It has endured a series of extreme weather events in recent years, most notably the 2022 super-floods that submerged one-third of the country, displaced millions and caused an estimated $30 billion in losses.

This year’s floods killed over 1,000 people and caused at least $2.9 billion in damage to agriculture and infrastructure, underscoring the scale of climate pressures facing the economy.

Economic experts told Arab News a day earlier that the Fund’s disbursements under the two loan programs would support the cash-strapped nation, which has relied heavily on financing from bilateral partners such as Saudi Arabia, China and the United Arab Emirates, as well as multilateral lenders.

“It obviously will help strengthen the external sector, the balance of payments,” said Samiullah Tariq, group head of research at Pakistan Kuwait Investment Company.

Another analyst, Shankar Talreja, head of research at Karachi-based Topline Securities, said the move was likely to send a positive signal to domestic and international investors about the government’s commitment to its reform agenda.

“This will help strengthen reserves and will eventually help a rating upgrade going forward,” he said.