Oil Updates — Oil prices gain; Rising supply from Kuwait, Russia to weigh on Asia fuel

Brent crude futures were up 50 cents, or 0.65 percent, at $80.30 a barrel by 1035 GMT, adding to a 76-cent gain in the previous session. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 20 December 2022
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Oil Updates — Oil prices gain; Rising supply from Kuwait, Russia to weigh on Asia fuel

RIYADH: Oil prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a softer dollar and a US plan to restock petroleum reserves, but gains were capped by uncertainty over the impact of rising COVID-19 cases in top oil importer China. 

Brent crude futures were up 50 cents, or 0.65 percent, at $80.30 a barrel by 1035 GMT, adding to a 76-cent gain in the previous session. 

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1, or 1.31 percent, to $76.19 after climbing 90 cents on Monday. 

Oil prices have been buoyed by US plans announced last week to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after this year's record release of 180 million barrels. 

A weaker dollar has also supported prices, making oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. 

"Oil prices could see further upside, as we expect physical markets to tighten further on the back of supply constraints and stronger global demand," Qatari bank QNB said in a note, predicting prices at $90-$115 a barrel in the coming quarters. 

Rising supply from Kuwait, Russia to weigh on Asia fuel oil in 2023 

Asia is expected to be flooded with more fuel oil supplies in 2023 as Kuwait's new Al-Zour refinery ramps up output and as Russia diverts record volumes from Europe to the East ahead of sanctions. 

Higher supplies are expected to weigh on Asia's fuel oil prices and refiners' margins next year amid steady demand from the ship fueling and power generation sectors. 

The 615,000 barrels-per-day Al Zour refinery, which started exporting products in November, is poised to be a major supplier of very-low sulfur fuel oil, commonly used for ship refueling, known as bunkering. 

Once fully operational, the refinery will export between 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of VLSFO per month, meeting 8 percent to 10 percent of Asia's demand if the supplies flow East, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations. 

Meanwhile, high-sulfur fuel oil has also come under pressure since May as Russian barrels flooded Asia after Western sanctions following their invasion of Ukraine. Asian refiners’ crack spread for the product fell to an all-time low in October.  

Asia's fuel oil imports from Russia rose to a record of 736,000 bpd in October and were at 410,000 tons as of Dec. 13, data from Kpler showed, ahead of a complete European Union ban on Russian imports on Feb. 5. 

Russia's Transneft receives Polish and German requests for oil 

Russia's Transneft has received requests from Poland and Germany for oil in 2023, the state oil pipeline monopoly's head told Rossiya-24 TV, adding that supplies via the Druzhba pipeline's southern spur are expected to hold steady next year. 

The EU has pledged to stop buying Russian oil via maritime routes from Dec. 5, with Western nations also imposing price caps on Russian crude oil, but the Druzhba pipeline remains exempt from sanctions. 

Transneft's comments are at odds with suggestions last month that Poland aimed to abandon a deal to buy Russian crude. 

(With inputs from Reuters) 


Saudi banks and capital market poised to drive Vision 2030 objectives: S&P Global 

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Saudi banks and capital market poised to drive Vision 2030 objectives: S&P Global 

RIYADH: Saudi banks and the capital market are poised to make substantial contributions alongside the Public Investment Fund in achieving the objectives of Vision 2030, stated a report by S&P Global. 

The latest analysis by the global rating agency underscores that their involvement in the Kingdom’s economic diversification endeavors will enhance leverage in both the Saudi private sector and the broader economy. 

The report, citing public sources, indicated that the Saudi government’s transformation program aimed at enhancing the country’s economic, social, and cultural diversification will necessitate approximately $1 trillion in investments over several years. 

“Part of this sum will come directly from the government and the Public Investment Fund, but S&P Global Ratings also expect banks and capital markets to contribute a significant amount,” stated the US-based agency in the report.  

It added: “This will inevitably increase leverage in the Saudi private sector and the broader economy, albeit from low levels. The pace and extent of the increase in leverage in the corporate sector remain uncertain.”  

As per the report, Saudi Arabia’s banking sector maintains a robust position, characterized by strong asset-quality indicators and overall capitalization.  

The credit rating agency further anticipates that the banks’ sound profitability and conservative dividend payouts will persist, thereby bolstering their capitalization over the next one-to-two years. 

S&P Global highlighted the expansion of the capital market in the Kingdom, noting that from January to May 2024, 13 private companies have announced potential listings on Saudi Arabia’s main market and parallel market. 

The analysis projected that Saudi Arabia will experience a real gross domestic product growth of 2.2 percent in 2024 and 5 percent in 2025, with the non-oil private sector emerging as a key contributor to this expansion. 

Earlier this month, S&P Global, in another report, noted that banks in Saudi Arabia are expected to pursue alternative funding options to manage the rapid expansion in lending. 

The agency said that this pursuit of external funding could potentially impact the credit quality of Saudi Arabia’s banking sector. 

“The ongoing financing needs of the Vision 2030 economic initiative and relatively sluggish deposits growth, is likely to incentivize banks to seek alternative sources of funding, including external funding,” said S&P Global. 


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil revenues up by 3% in Q1 of 2024

Updated 19 min 55 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil revenues up by 3% in Q1 of 2024

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil revenues rose by 3 percent to reach SR111.51 billion ($29.73 billion) in the first quarter of 2024 the final quarter of 2023, the Ministry of Finance said.

In its quarterly budget performance report, the ministry said the Kingdom posted total revenues of SR293.43 billion in the same quarter, while its public spending amounted to SR305.82 billion.

According to official data, total revenues slipped 18 percent as compared to Q4 of 2023.

In the first quarter of the current year, the Kingdom posted a budget deficit of SR12.39 billion with oil revenues reaching SR181.92 billion.


Saudi bank loans increase by 11% in March to hit $712bn, fueled by real estate activities

Updated 05 May 2024
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Saudi bank loans increase by 11% in March to hit $712bn, fueled by real estate activities

RIYADH: Saudi banks extended loans worth SR2.67 trillion ($711.5 billion) in March, marking an 11 percent increase as compared to the same month in 2023, according to the latest official data.

Figures released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, showed personal borrowings accounted for 35 percent of this growth, while the remaining 65 percent went to the corporate sector, particularly for real estate activities, as well as electricity, gas, and water supplies.

Real estate financing for corporate dealings specifically surged by 27 percent in the third month of the 2024, marking the highest annual growth rate in 10 months, reaching SR275.2 billion.

A study by Mortor Intelligence, which used 2023 as a base year, estimated the Kingdom’s real estate market at $69.51 billion in 2024, and expects it to reach $101.62 billion by 2029, growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 8 percent between 2024 and 2029.

The surge in real estate and construction endeavors may have heightened the need for debt-based financing primarily sourced from the local banking sector. Saudi banks play a central role in the provision of loans for real estate projects.

According to SAMA data, new retail residential mortgage loans experienced a notable increase, reaching a 14-month high at SR7.63 billion in March. This marked a 5 percent rise compared to the amount granted in the same month last year and a 10 percent increase from the previous month.

In March, lending for home purchases accounted for the largest portion, comprising 64 percent of new mortgages to individuals, totaling SR4.91 billion. The most notable growth, however, was observed in apartment loans, surging by 28 percent to reach SR2.24 billion. Meanwhile, land loans experienced a more modest growth of 4 percent, reaching SR474 million in new mortgages.

One factor contributing to this growth could be the need for residential properties from expatriates arriving in the Kingdom, along with government initiatives aimed at modernizing the financial system.

In a March study by Knight Frank, a notable trend emerged among expatriates, with 68 percent expressing a strong preference for owning an apartment rather than a villa. This inclination was especially prominent among individuals aged 35-45 and 45-55.

Growth in lending for electricity, gas and water supplies came as the second contributor in corporate loans after real estate, registering an annual rise of 27 percent to reach SR147.42 billion in March.

According to an April report by Global Data, the key sectors in the Saudi Arabia power market are the residential sector, commercial sector, industrial sector, and others. In 2023, the residential sector had the dominant share in the power consumption market.

The American International Trade Administration also stated in a January report that Saudi Arabia has experienced rapid economic and population growth since the discovery of oil. The population is projected to increase to 40.1 million by 2030.

Due to limited water resources, the country continues to invest in desalination facilities to meet rising water demands, aiming to deliver 2.18 billion cubic meters per year of desalinated water.

The Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture has allocated $80 billion for water projects, with the wastewater treatment services market also expanding steadily according to the report. In 2021, Saudi Arabia built 133 wastewater treatment facilities, marking a 14.66 percent increase from the previous year.

SAMA data also revealed that financing for professional, scientific, and technical activities soared by 54 percent, hitting SR6.4 billion, marking the highest annual growth rate among sectors.

Education loans also showed robust growth, with an annual increase of 28 percent to reach SR6.27 billion. Additionally, financing for administrative and support service activities rose by 20 percent, totaling around SR34.22 billion.

While the proportion of lending allocated to the scientific and education sectors may currently be modest, the Saudi government acknowledges their pivotal significance in driving the Kingdom’s comprehensive transformation agenda.

Recognizing the paramount importance of innovation and fostering a culture of scientific inquiry, the government has implemented diverse initiatives aimed at nurturing these sectors.

These efforts are believed to have played a part in the gradual increase in lending support extended to these sectors by financial institutions. As the Kingdom continues to prioritize knowledge-based industries and endeavors, further advancements and investments in these areas are anticipated to amplify, propelling the nation towards its ambitious developmental goals.


Saudi Arabia’s car imports surge to 160k over last 2 years: official figures 

Updated 05 May 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s car imports surge to 160k over last 2 years: official figures 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s car imports in 2023 hit 93,199, utilizing all modes of transportation — land, sea, and air — reflecting nearly a 40 percent growth from the previous year. 

In the last two years, the Kingdom has imported a total of over 160,000 cars, with 66,870 imports recorded in 2022 alone, according to Hamoud Al-Harbi, the spokesperson for the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority, reported Saudi Press Agency. 

This positions Saudi Arabia as one of the largest markets globally for automobiles, accounting for more than half of the car sales in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and ranking among the top 20 markets worldwide. 

According to the authority’s spokesperson, cars were primarily imported from Japan, India, South Korea, the US, and Thailand to the Kingdom during the past two years. 

Wael Al-Dhayyab, the official spokesperson for the Saudi Standards, Metrology, and Quality Organization, underscored the rigorous efforts undertaken by the Vehicle Inspection Unit in 2023. They inspected 60,473 vehicles to uphold the highest technical and safety standards.  

Concurrently, 18,150 energy efficiency certificates were issued for tire products, highlighting SASO’s commitment to ensuring tire quality and safety in the Saudi market. 

Al-Dhayyab emphasized that these endeavors demonstrate the organization’s dedication to enforcing stringent standards, fostering tire quality, and safety.  

Moreover, he stressed the body’s pivotal role in advancing energy efficiency and endorsing initiatives aimed at enhancing product safety and economic growth. 

Additionally, Al-Dhayyab noted a significant milestone in 2023, with SASO awarding 172 conformity certificates for electric vehicles, witnessing a 465 percent surge from the previous year. 

This emphasizes the organization’s crucial role in facilitating the shift toward sustainable energy adoption. 

Furthermore, he pointed out that the body issued 1,505 fuel efficiency cards for new light vehicles, indicating its commitment to promoting eco-friendly transportation solutions.

The surge in the import of motor vehicles led to Saudi banks witnessing a 7.67 percent increase in letters of credit to the private sector in the first 11 months of 2023, compared to the same period the previous year. 

The data, released by the Saudi Central Bank, revealed that settled LCs and received bills to this sector hit SR155.19 billion ($41.38 billion).   

LCs, a financial document issued by a bank, guarantee payment to the seller upon fulfilling specified conditions in a trade transaction. 

The growth is primarily attributed to an upsurge in the import of motor vehicles, accounting for around 75 percent of the overall increase.     

The import value in this category reached SR39.7 billion, marking a 26.29 percent increase, the data showed. 


UAE’s Mubadala Capital plans $13.5bn investment in Brazil’s biofuel sector 

Updated 05 May 2024
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UAE’s Mubadala Capital plans $13.5bn investment in Brazil’s biofuel sector 

RIYADH: Brazil’s biofuel market is set for substantial growth as UAE’s Mubadala Capital has committed to invest $13.5 billion over the next decade.

Oscar Fahlgren, head of Brazil strategy at the sovereign wealth fund, disclosed the budget for the initiative during an interview with the Financial Times. He divulged the details of the fund’s plans to produce renewable diesel and sustainable aviation kerosene primarily utilizing non-food plant matter.

In his interview with the newspaper, Fahlgren said Mubadala’s Brazilian subsidiary, Acelen, will initiate the development of a large-scale biofuel project by 2026.  

The fund’s executive stated that the funds will be sourced through a blend of equity and debt over a span of five to 10 years.  

The endeavor will encompass five modules, each valued at $2.7 billion, housing a new biorefinery capable of processing 20,000 barrels of fuel per day. Additionally, it will include the necessary infrastructure and cultivated acreage to sustain the input crop.  

“It’s all about feedstock (which) in reality is agriculture. And Brazil is probably the best-placed country on the planet when it comes to agricultural proficiency because of the climate and the fertile soil,” said Fahlgren, adding, “Brazil is to agriculture what Abu Dhabi is to oil.”   

The project will also include the conversion of an existing oil refinery in the northeastern Brazilian state of Bahia acquired from government-owned Petrobras in 2021.  

“It’s a very important capital project,” Fahlgren said. “I see tremendous opportunity to invest in the green energy transition space in Brazil,” he added.  

Mubadala’s venture into bioenergy will leverage its existing $6 billion investments in the country, constituting approximately a quarter of the group’s global portfolio. 

“We’ve been very active investing in Brazil, for the past 10-plus years, in an environment where most foreign investors have been shying away,” Fahlgren said.    

Mubadala also plans to open a stock exchange in Brazil next year through its Americas Trading Group.  

“Brazil is a very large country. It has only one stock exchange. And I think that’s suboptimal infrastructure for the players that operate in this segment,” said Fahlgren. 

“It will probably be a staged launch — perhaps start with equities, then expand. No asset classes are off the table.”   

The asset management arm of the Emirati sovereign wealth fund is increasing its bets on Latin America’s largest economy, where its holdings span metro lines and medical universities to a majority stake in the local owner of the Burger King brand.  

“We’re very bullish on the investment climate in Brazil right now and the opportunities we see,” said Fahlgren. “We do have a number of assets that are relatively mature today, and could be potential exit candidates in the not-too-distant future,” he added.