Squeezed global spare oil capacity limits OPEC+ output hike

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Updated 07 August 2022
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Squeezed global spare oil capacity limits OPEC+ output hike

RIYADH: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, has agreed to a further 100,000 barrels per day oil production hike from September as it warned of a lack of spare capacity for any greater increases.

The alliance, which includes Russia, held a meeting on Wednesday to discuss output levels amid calls from the US to ramp up production to cool the international oil market.

The increase will mean the 23-nation group, which includes Russia, will raise output by 748,000 bpd from next month.

In a statement after the meeting, OPEC+ warned that a lack of investment into the upstream sector will impact the availability of adequate supply “to meet growing demand beyond 2023 from non-participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries, some OPEC Member Countries and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries.” 

The next meeting is scheduled for Sept. 5.

 

White House Energy Advisor Amos Hochstein was reported as saying the US will monitor the oil market to see if the hike is adequate.

The US has put OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the UAE under pressure to pump more oil to help rein in prices boosted by rebounding demand and Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

US and Western sanctions on Russia have caused prices of all types of energy to soar, resulting in inflation at multi-decade highs and central bank interest rate hikes.

US President Joe Biden used his visit to Saudi Arabia last month to raise the issue of energy supply, but the Saudi Crown Prince made it clear the Kingdom would not expand monthly production beyond 13 million barrels.

“Saudi Arabia’s policy on oil has been to try to seek balance in the energy markets, to make sure that the markets are adequately supplied and that there are no shortages,” Adel Al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia’s minister of state for foreign affairs, told Arab News in an exclusive interview during Biden’s visit.

 

Speaking after the meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said global oil demand has almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels,

He told state TV channel Rossiya-24 that uncertainties remained in logistic chains and possible further spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, adding that Russia and Saudi Arabia, two leading players in the oil output coordination deal, plan to hold an inter-governmental meeting in October. 
 

Oil Prices

As reports of the OPEC+ decision began to circulate, oil futures turned positive.

Brent crude futures were up 0.47 percent at $101.01 a barrel at 02.50 p.m Saudi time, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 0.66 percent, to $95.08 a barrel. 

Demand for oil to continue recovery albeit at slower pace, OPEC Sec Gen says

Demand for oil is expected to continue its recovery, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year and last year, OPEC’s secretary general told Algerian state television ahead of Wednesday’s meeting.

“We are still seeing increased demand for oil... compared to the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. There is post-pandemic recovery, and we are still seeing that but there is a relative decrease in its pace,” Haitham Al-Ghais told the Algerian news channel in remarks aired late Tuesday and posted on social media on Wednesday.

Production policies since COVID-19

OPEC has been increasing output in line with its targets by about 430,000-650,000 bpd a month in recent months and has refused to switch to speedier output increases.

Group sources have cited a lack of spare capacity among members to add more barrels as well as the need for further cooperation with Russia as part of the wider OPEC+ group.

By September, OPEC+ would have wound down all of the record production cuts it implemented in 2020 to deal with a collapse in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

In June, OPEC+ produced almost 3 million barrels per day less crude than foreseen by its quotas as sanctions on some members and low investment by some others crippled its ability to assuage the worlds energy crisis. 

Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE are believed to have some spare capacity left to increase production.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he had been told that Saudi Arabia and the UAE had very limited ability to increase oil production. 


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.