ADB slashes Asia growth forecast as fuel, food prices rise

A man walks past the Asian Development Bank (ADB) building in Ortigas City, Philippines on October 8, 2021. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 21 July 2022
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ADB slashes Asia growth forecast as fuel, food prices rise

  • Double-digit inflation has hit most of the Caucasus and Central Asia including Pakistan
  • The growth forecast for East Asia, which includes China, was cut to 3.8 percent from 4.7 percent

MANILA: The Asian Development Bank on Thursday slashed its 2022 growth forecast for developing Asia and warned economic conditions could worsen, as the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions drive up prices.

While the impact of Covid-19 had eased, the region was now grappling with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China and aggressive interest rate hikes, the Philippines-based bank said.

To reflect the deterioration across developing Asia — which stretches from the Cook Islands in the Pacific to Kazakhstan in Central Asia — the bank cut its 2022 growth forecast to 4.6 percent.

That compares with its previous prediction in April of 5.2 percent and the 6.9 percent growth chalked up last year.

It also increased its inflation forecast for the region this year to 4.2 percent, from 3.7 percent, due to surging food and fuel prices.

Risks to the outlook “remain elevated,” the bank warned.

“A substantial slowdown in global growth could hurt exports, manufacturing activity and employment prospects, and cause turbulence in financial markets,” it said.

Double-digit inflation has hit most of the Caucasus and Central Asia — which have close trade and financial ties to Russia — as well as Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Laos and Myanmar.

India’s inflation was above target at seven percent, but in the rest of the region’s large economies it was “manageable.”

But the bank warned: “A worsening fallout from the war in Ukraine could lead to a further surge in global energy and commodity prices, with likely knock-on effects on growth and inflation in developing Asia.”

Adding to the region’s woes was the strengthening US dollar, seen as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty, which the bank said was weighing on regional currencies and stock markets.

“With financial conditions tightening, growth in advanced economies is softening,” the bank said.

“And with activity in the PRC (China) hampered by supply chain disruptions, domestic demand and exports in developing Asia are set to face significant challenges.”

The growth forecast for East Asia, which includes China, was cut to 3.8 percent from 4.7 percent, as Covid-19 lockdowns batter the world’s second-biggest economy.

In South Asia, where bankrupt Sri Lanka is reeling from its worst economic crisis, the bank lowered its growth forecast to 6.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously.

But the bank revised up its forecast for the Pacific to 4.7 percent, from 3.9 percent, on a surprising rebound in tourism in Fiji.


French court rejects bid to reopen probe into black man’s death in custody

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French court rejects bid to reopen probe into black man’s death in custody

PARIS: France’s top court on Wednesday ruled against reopening an investigation into the 2016 death of a young black man in police custody, confirming a previous decision to dismiss the case against three arresting officers.
The Court of Cassation’s decision definitively closes the case nearly a decade after the death of 24-year-old Adama Traore following his arrest in the Paris suburb of Beaumont-sur-Oise, a fatality that triggered national outcry over police brutality and racism.
Traore’s family was contesting a 2024 appeal court ruling confirming a prior decision to drop the case, after an investigation led to no charges against the military policemen — or gendarmes — involved and therefore no case in court.
A lawyer representing his family announced after Wednesday’s ruling they would take the case to the European Court of Human Rights to “have France convicted.”
Three gendarmes pursued the young man on July 19, 2016, when temperatures reached nearly 37C, pinning him down in an apartment, after which he told officers he was “having trouble breathing.”
He then fainted during the journey to a gendarmerie station, where he died.
’Probably’ not fatal
In 2023, French investigating magistrates dropped the case against the three gendarmes, in a ruling that was upheld on appeal in 2024.
They had been tasked with probing whether the three arresting officers used disproportionate force against Traore during a police operation targeting his brother, Bagui.
According to the magistrates, Traore’s death was caused by heatstroke that “probably” would not have been fatal without the officers’ intervention — though it concluded their actions were within legal bounds.
His family however has accused the gendarmes of failing to help the young man, who was found by rescue services unconscious and handcuffed behind his back.
In their appeal, Traore’s family criticized the justice system for not carrying out a reconstitution of events as part of the investigation.
But prosecutors requested that the appeal be dismissed.
Internal investigations
Activists have repeatedly accused French police of violence and racism, but few cases make it to criminal court in France as most are dealt with internally.
In January, several thousand people protested in Paris over the death in custody of a Mauritanian immigrant worker, El Hacen Diarra, 35, who died after passing out at a police station following his violent arrest.
Paris police launched an internal investigation after video filmed by neighbors, shared on social media, showed a policeman punching what appears to be a man on the ground as another officer stands by and watches.
In 2024, a judge gave suspended jail sentences to three officers who inflicted irreversible rectal injuries to a black man, Theo Luhaka, during a stop-and-search in 2017.
Prosecutors have also called for a police officer to be tried over the 2023 killing of a teenager at a traffic stop, in a case that sparked nationwide protests.
A court is to rule in March whether he will face a criminal trial over the killing of 17-year-old Nahel M.
Europe’s top rights court in June condemned France over its police discriminating against a young man during identity checks, in the first such ruling against the country over alleged racial profiling.